Fantasy Baseball Trade Targets For Week 4
Week 4 is here, and players are finally starting to fall out of their early season hot and cold streaks. Struggling players that I’ve mentioned in previous weeks such as Francisco Lindor and Luis Castillo are showing signs of life, and overperforming players such as Garrett Crochet are starting to come back down to earth. However, there are always new values to be found, which is true again for this week. Here are five players you should look to trade for or trade away as we head into week 4.
Buy-Low Candidates
Christopher Morel, 3B/OF, Cubs
Christopher Morel has had a disappointing 2024 so far, slashing only .205/.272/.361. He does have 3 homers, 2 stolen bases, 13 runs, and 11 RBI which isn’t bad, but his underlying metrics show he should be doing much better. He has an xBA of .278 and an xSLG of .458 which shows that he has been one of the unluckiest hitters so far this year. While the expected stats show an improvement over his actual stats, the most encouraging sign is his seemingly improved plate discipline. His free-swinging tendencies were his greatest flaw last season, leading to a 37% whiff rate that ranked in the 2nd percentile of the league and a 31% strikeout rate that placed him in the 10th percentile. This season, however, he has only whiffed at 25.8% of pitches and struck out 18.4% of the time. While those still aren’t elite numbers by any means, it places him close to the league average in those metrics instead of at the bottom of the pack. Last season, Morel had a 50% hard-hit rate, 15.9% barrel rate, and 92.1 mph average exit velocity which all ranked in the top 10 percent of the league. Striking out less should allow that power to shine through even more, and acquiring him before he gets hot would be a huge benefit for any fantasy team. Morel tends to be a streaky player in general, and last May he hit 9 home runs in his first 12 games after being called up. You may be able to get him for cheap, and I would still rather have him than players such as Alec Bohm, Isaac Paredes, and Anthony Santander.
Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays
Randy Arozarena is also known for being a very streaky player, and he has not been good at all to start the season. His expected stats are better than his actual stats, but still bad overall. He has a .157 BA (.221 xBA), .241 SLG (.391 xSLG), and .225 wOBA (.295 xwOBA) with 10 runs, 6 RBI, 2 home runs, and 4 stolen bases. He has been striking out more (26.7%) and walking less (8.1%) but still has a promising 91.6 mph average exit velocity and an above-average 44.6% hard-hit rate. He has also been chasing less pitches, 22% this year compared to 27.5% last year. While the underlying metrics aren’t the best, they do show that Arozarena should move in a positive direction from here on out. With a player of his caliber, it’s best to consider this a cold streak and trust him to break out of it soon. He has still shown a willingness to steal bases this year which is huge for his value in categories leagues, and I still trust him as a top-15 outfielder. I would rather have him than players such as Jackson Chourio, Teoscar Hernandez, and Spencer Steer who have all had much better starts to the season.
Nolan Jones, OF, Rockies
Nolan Jones has begun the season slashing just .148/.225/.259 with one home run and two stolen bases. As bad as those stats are, it’s even worse that they are right in line with his expected stats. The only good news for him is that it’s almost not possible to be this bad for much longer. He is striking out at a ridiculous rate of 39.5% which is an unsustainable number for a player of his caliber. The other promising sign is that his 89.5 mph average exit velocity and 46.3% hard-hit rate are right in line with his 2023 performance. Of course, it’s important to note that Jones was pretty insignificant in fantasy for most of last season before catching on fire in August and September, batting .317 with 38 R, 11 HR, 40 RBI, and 13 SB over his final 56 games. Jones still gets the benefit of playing half of his games at Coors Field, and it’s possible that his timing is just off for whatever reason this early in the season. He’s also had to endure playing in 30-degree snowy weather in Colorado recently, so maybe he will heat up as the temperature does. His lack of track record does make me less confident in him compared to someone like Arozarena, but it should also make him easier to acquire in a trade. I would still take a chance on him over those same names of Chourio, Hernandez, and Steer, but you should be able to get him at a lower cost than those names right now.
Sell-High Candidates
Jake Fraley, OF, Reds
Jake Fraley has enjoyed a hot start to the season, slashing .362/.423/.511 with 1 HR, 5 SB, 13 R, and 4 RBI through 16 games. However, he has an xBA of .274 and xSLG of .364 which suggests he is vastly overperforming so far this season. It helps that he plays his home games in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park, and that does allow players to overperform their expected stats more often than not, but not to this extent. His average exit velocity is only 84.5 mph and his hard-hit rate is 27%, both ranking in the bottom 10 percent of the league. Those stats along with his K%, BB%, and barrel rate are all almost identical to what he did last season. I don’t think Fraley is a bad player, but I expect him to perform similarly to 2023, where he hit .256 with 15 home runs and 21 stolen bases. It’s also important to note that he doesn’t start against left-handed pitchers, making him tough to use in weekly lineup leagues. He could even lose playing time against right-handers once Matt McLain, TJ Friedl, and Noelvi Marte start to return. He is fine to have as a fifth outfielder, but it would be worth shopping him on the trade market in case anyone in your league thinks he is more than that.
Jose Berrios, SP, Blue Jays
Jose Berrios has been pitching great this season, with an ERA of 0.85 which is third-best among starting pitchers. He also has a 1.01 WHIP, 27 strikeouts, and 9 walks in 31.2 innings pitched. While that looks great on the surface, his xERA is 4.32 which only places him in the 40th percentile. His underlying metrics are underwhelming as a whole, as his 23.1% whiff rate, 47.1% hard-hit rate, and 90.1 mph average exit velocity are nothing to get excited about. His 21.8% strikeout rate also isn’t what you’d expect an ace to contribute to your strikeout totals. I view Berrios the same way I did during draft season, which is as a solid top-35 starting pitcher. He will have his ups and downs but will be a solid contributor to your team when it’s all said and done. I would try to take advantage of his 0.85 ERA and try to trade him now in case someone in your league thinks he’s taking a step forward as an ace. I would rather have other pitchers with worse stats than him such as Jesus Luzardo, Joe Ryan, Chris Sale, and Zach Eflin.
