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Fantasy Baseball Week 8
With two months of fantasy baseball data, it’s time to evaluate our fantasy squads regarding waiver wire moves, trades, and start/sit decisions. It’s a good point in the season to look at league-wide trends in fantasy and real-life baseball.
We noticed in May that offense heated up versus April, which typically happens. Although it’s a drastic change, the season-long data still remains below past seasons.
The expected SLG and wOBA on barrels remain similar to April, but the actual SLG and wOBA improved. The league-wide BABIP inches closer to past seasons, aligning with the batting average gains. Let’s look at two hot waiver wire pickups and two cold veterans.
Hot Players
Paul Blackburn (SP, OAK)
Outside of Frankie Montas in 2022, the Athletics starting pitchers didn’t seem appealing. However, Paul Blackburn has posted his best numbers with a 1.70 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 47.2 innings. Throughout Blackburn’s career of 185.2 innings, he has a 4.70 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.
With Blackburn’s career BABIP of .307 and LOB% at 68.1%, the 2022 numbers could regress with a .259 BABIP and 84% LOB%. As a groundball pitcher with a career GB% of 52%, Blackburn has limited the home runs with a 3.1% HR/FB% and 0.19 HR/9. He keeps the home run rates low with a career average of 0.92 HR/9 and 11.7% HR/FB% throughout his career.
Blackburn increased the strikeout rate to 19.5%, up from a career rate of 14.3%, with the walk rate hovering near the career norms. It’s not an overpowering profile, but Blackburn has a 63.2% first-pitch strike rate, up nearly ten percentage points from the career norms, with the 10.1% swinging-strike rate also higher than the career SwStr% of 7.5%.
Blackburn’s Pitch Arsenal & Results
Blackburn uses five different pitches thrown at a double-digit rate in the sinker (36.1%), cutter (16.4%), changeup (15.9%), curve (15.9%), and four-seamer (10.4%). Four of those pitches, outside the sinker, elicit a double-digit swinging-strike rate. Meanwhile, Blackburn typically only had two pitches with a double-digit swinging-strike rate.
Interestingly, Blackburn’s cutter, changeup, and curveball generate swings and misses, but the cut fastball and changeup results haven’t been great. The cut fastball allows a .375 BA, .563 SLG, and .424 wOBA, with the curveball having similar results with a .379 BA, .552 SLG, and .416 wOBA.
Blackburn’s curveball possesses 6.7 inches more vertical drop than the average, plus the cutter has 3.2 inches more break than the average. Interestingly, Blackburn’s slider has above-average vertical drop and break, but it’s his least used pitch at 5.3%. Although it’s a small sample of 37 sliders thrown, it has a .182 BA, .455 SLG, and .264 wOBA.
Takeaways
Even if the BABIP and LOB% regress, Blackburn should still provide a quality ERA near the FIP (2.70) or xFIP (3.37). Blackburn profiles as a control and command pitcher with average stuff, but that’s a streaming pitcher profile that provides fantasy value. THE BAT projects Blackburn for a 4.27 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with the home run rate, BABIP, and LOB% regressing. That’s still valuable, though it’s hard to imagine Blackburn will maintain the $22 rotisserie value for the rest of 2022.
Kole Calhoun (OF, TEX)
With several players injured on my TGFBI squad, I only added Kole Calhoun via FAAB. When Calhoun smacks seven home runs in May, six of them coming over the past two weeks, the fantasy community raised eyebrows. We know what he provides – power and a reasonable batting average.
In 2022, Calhoun has seven home runs, 20 runs, 17 RBI, and one stolen base with a .270 batting average. If the batting average maintains, it could be the second-highest in his career, with a career BA of .248. Calhoun’s .326 BABIP in 2022 has boosted the batting average, though he has a career BABIP of .286.
Calhoun’s Batted Ball Profile
Calhoun continues to tap into the pull-side power with a 48.4% Pull% with the second-highest LD% of his career at 27.3%. The healthy LD% translates into a better BABIP, meaning a better batting average if it sustains. Calhoun’s 19.4% HR/FB% sits about five percentage points above his career norms, which will regress over time.
The 5.5% walk rate in 2022 dropped from 9.2% throughout his career with a slight jump in strikeouts at 25.3%, nearly four percentage points higher. That aligns with the more aggressive approach for Calhoun, with a 36.6% O-Swing% and 53.5% Swing% versus a career O-Swing% of 30.1% and Swing% of 48.4%. Unsurprisingly, his 17.8% SwStr% jumped over five percentage points from the career norms.
The rolling graph shows a worrisome trend with Calhoun in Z-Contact% and Contact% in 2022 with a 76.1% Z-Contact% and 66.8% Contact%. That shouldn’t surprise us with the higher chase and swinging-strike rates.
A hitter like Calhoun needs to rely on above-average exit velocities. It’s a small sample of 99 batted ball events, but Calhoun boasts a 14.1% Barrel% and 9.6% Barrel/PA, which would rank as career bests. Calhoun’s 50.5% hard-hit rate and .482 xwOBAcon align with the contact quality metrics.
Takeaways
Thankfully, Calhoun provides a known hitter profile with power and typically a better OBP than the batting average. Unfortunately, the team context is mediocre, with Rangers hitters having a 95 wRC+ (No. 18), so temper expectations with runs and RBI. Whether we believe in hot streaks, it’s a good idea to ride the wave with Calhoun for power and offensive production.
Cold Players
Avisaíl García (OF, MIA)
Unfortunately, Avisaíl García landed on the injured list on Friday without a designated injury, which could mean COVID-19-related symptoms or situation. He wasn’t in Sunday’s lineup but should be back in there starting again soon. García landed as one of my top targets in redraft leagues, but he struggled in 2022 with three home runs, 11 runs, ten RBI, and three stolen bases with a .207 batting average.
It might’ve been a good idea to fade García moving to Miami after a career-best season. However, García looked ready for full-time playing time on the Marlins. When the walk rate (2.6%), strikeout rate (29.6%), and BABIP (.276) don’t align with the career norms, it leads us to dive deeper.
García’s Plate Discipline
With the jump in strikeouts, we noticed García’s O-Swing% at 47% jumped over five percentage points versus the career norms. Although García typically showed a more aggressive profile, it’s too aggressive with a 62% Swing% versus a career rate of 57.5% and 22.8% SwStr% compared to a career rate over five percentage points lower.
The Z-Contact% doesn’t look far off from the career averages, but the overall Contact% of 63.2% dropped over seven percentage points. García is making less contact outside the zone with a 43.9% O-Contact% – a career-low, almost ten percentage points lower than the career average. Those trends could mean García is pressing at the plate with the chance for the plate discipline metrics to regress.
García’s Batted Ball Profile
Typically, García hits the ball hard, evidenced by the maximum exit velocity in the top 10% of the league throughout his career. Although García’s 8.9% Barrel% and 5.9% Barrel/PA dropped from 12.2% and 8.2% in 2021, it still aligns with the career rates.
Although García continues to hit the ball hard, the results against breaking and offspeed pitches fell off in 2022, though he keeps crushing fastballs. Like other hitters, García hits too many groundballs with a 49.5% GB% in 2022, which means he needs to smash flyballs and line drives. In 2022, García boasts a 94.9 mph EV on FB/LD (No. 61), aligning with the 95.2 mph (No. 53) in 2021.
Takeaways
Assuming the plate discipline metrics regress, García should show positive results. However, García’s profile reminds us of Randy Arozarena and Eric Hosmer, where it’s a heavy groundball profile. The rest of season projections for THE BAT X indicate García’s numbers should regress with 16 home runs, eight stolen bases, and a .262 batting average. Buy low on García in leagues with five outfield spots because the power and speed profile provides positive rotisserie value.
Amed Rosario (SS, CLE)
Several sharp fantasy players touted Amed Rosario due to the projected playing time and speed. It feels like chasing the peak 2019 season with 15 home runs and 19 stolen bases with a .287 batting average. Meanwhile, Rosario posted 11 home runs and 13 stolen bases with a .282 batting average in 2021.
Rosario rocks a career BABIP of .324 with a career-worst .280 BABIP in 2022, which negatively impacts the batting average. Interestingly, Rosario’s strikeout rate dropped to 14%, six percentage points lower than the career average.
Rosario’s O-Swing% jumped to 42%, up nearly three percentage points from the career norms. Interestingly, the strikeout rate dropped with a higher chase rate, though the 8.2% SwStr% also decreased.
Thankfully, Rosario boasts contact rates higher than the league averages, evidenced by the 89.7% Z-Contact% and 84% Contact% versus the league rates of 85% Z-Contact% and 76.4% Contact%.
Rosario’s Batted Ball Profile
A trend we observe with several hitters involves too many groundballs. Unfortunately, Rosario falls into that category with a 57.6% GB% up almost seven percentage points from the career norms. Oddly enough, Rosario has a career-worst infield flyball rate of 13.3% with the heavy groundball approach.
Rosario never provided above-average exit velocities, evidenced by the 4% Barrel% and 3.2% Barrel/PA in 2022, aligning with the career metrics. Hitters like Avisaíl García and Randy Arozarena need to crush line drives and flyballs. Rosario rocks a 93 mph EV on FB/LD (No. 133) in 2022, up from 90.8 mph (No. 203) in 2021 and 91.7 mph (No. 182) in 2019. Although the EV on FB/LD isn’t mind-blowing, it’s positive to see Rosario’s exit velocity metrics higher than expected.
Takeaways
Fantasy managers look for regular playing time in deep leagues, and Amed Rosario provides that. A reminder that the Cleveland offense cooled down with a 97 wRC+ (No. 21) in May versus the 112 wRC+ (No. 6) in April. With the offseason roster moves, Cleveland’s offense seemed less appealing. THE BAT X projects Rosario to six home runs, nine stolen bases, and a .283 batting average for the rest of the season. Rosario’s potential steals hint at better fantasy value, similar to Jorge Mateo with less production in 2022.
