Fantasy Football Breakdown: Miami Dolphins RBs
During and after the first week of preseason games, we observed a ton of Myles Gaskin worries. However, let’s not overreact too much to the news. We’ll dive into the data while incorporating some of the preseason reports. The Dolphins added mediocre competition in Malcolm Brown and Gerrid Doaks. Meanwhile, the team primarily used Gaskin when healthy in ten games last season. However, it seems the fantasy community pushed the panic alarm button with Brown starting the first preseason game and training camp buzz.
We’ll break down the top three Dolphins’ running backs in ADP with a short note on Gerrid Doaks. We have a Dolphins running back that reminds me of another running back with similar size and skills with an ADP in the back end of the second round. Can Myles Gaskin build upon his 2020 season? Which, if any, Dolphins running back will eat into Gaskin’s opportunities and production? We plan to answer those questions and provide data to guide us in figuring out which Dolphins running back managers should draft.
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Myles Gaskin
Underdog ADP of 72.5 – RB 27
If you’re looking for a running back with a later ADP yet similar size and skills to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, look no further than Myles Gaskin. We’re not saying Gaskin is on the level of Edwards-Helaire, but rather, he possesses a similar athletic profile and skills. At 5-foot-9 and 205-pounds, Gaskin came in slightly taller than Edwards-Helaire at 5-foot-7 yet weighed at 207-pounds. Sure, draft capital for Edwards-Helaire as a first-round pick compared to Gaskin as a seventh-round pick qualifies as a drastic difference in draft capital.
However, Gaskin’s 93.2 (39th-percentile) Speed Score and Edwards-Helaire’s 92.5 (37th-percentile) Speed Score look identical. As an uber-productive college player with over 1,300 total yards in four straight seasons, Gaskin garnered a 33.5% (78th-percentile) College Dominator compared to Edwards-Helaire’s 17.9% (28th-percentile) College Dominator. Edwards-Helaire’s 10.2% (78th-percentile) target share in his final college season ranks higher than Gaskin’s 7.8% (61st-percentile) target in college. However, Gaskin earned the 7th highest target share at 13.4% amongst qualified running backs last year.
If Gaskin played a few more games to match Edwards-Helaire’s 13 games played, it’s likely that Gaskin notches similar rushing and receiving yardage. Gaskin averaged 58.4 rushing yards and 38.8 receiving yards per game. When we add three more games worth of rushing and receiving production, Gaskin could’ve totaled 759 rushing yards and 504 receiving yards. The 1,263 total yards would have surpassed Edwards-Helaire’s 1,100 total yards. Even Gaskin’s 972 total yards in ten games nearly reached Edwards-Helaire’s season-long numbers.
Last season, Gaskin thrived on opportunities yet struggled with efficiency, evidenced by a 67.5% (No. 11) Opportunity Share and 158.99 (No. 25) Weighted Opportunities. However, Gaskin’s 5.3 (No. 19) yards per touch and +1.29 (No. 32) Production Premium indicate the lack of efficiency. He proved he’s an efficient receiver with his 9.5 (No. 1) yards per reception and 2.08 (No. 3) yards per route run amongst running backs.
The Dolphins brought in veteran Malcolm Brown, who bugged fantasy managers early for the Rams last year. Then Brown’s production and efficiency faded even though he still received a snap share ranging from 38.5% to 63.6% up until Week 13, and Brown’s season-long 43% (No. 43) Snap Share reflects that. We’ll discuss Brown’s inefficiencies later, even though he started the first preseason game.
Salvon Ahmed
Underdog ADP of 213 – RB65
Another running back out of the University of Washington in Salvon Ahmed went undrafted last season. When Myles Gaskin missed time, Ahmed flashed his rushing ability with a couple of instances where he produced in the passing game. However, the Dolphins used Gaskin much more in the passing game, evidenced by Ahmed’s 6.8% target share and Gaskin’s 13.4% target share.
The same goes with Gaskin’s 2.08 (No. 3) yards per route run and Ahmed’s 0.92 yards per route run. Unfortunately, Ahmed didn’t qualify amongst running backs for rankings, but we notice the difference. If Gaskin struggles or suffers an injury, Salvon Ahmed should take on the rushing opportunities with the potential to earn some targets even though Ahmed didn’t garner much in 2020. With a 213 Underdog ADP even past Malcolm Brown, draft and stash Ahmed as one of your last-round picks.
Malcolm Brown
Underdog ADP of 189.2 – RB55
It’s hard to have many takeaways from Malcolm Brown‘s 2020 season since Cam Akers eventually stole the show. In Week 1 and 2 last year, Brown notched 29 total carries, four targets, three receptions, and 157 total yards with two touchdowns. However, he lacked efficiency even with the reduced touches for the rest of the season with 4.7 (No. 37) yards per touch and a -14.3 (No. 60) Production Premium.
Last season, Malcolm Brown reached career highs in carries, rushing yards, targets, receptions, and receiving yards. However, Brown’s 25 (No. 37) Evaded Tackles, 20.2% (No. 31) Juke Rate, and 0.62 (No. 57) yards created per touch provide reasons for concern. Given Brown’s 224-pound frame, there’s a situation where he sees the goal line or short-yardage work.
An article in the Miami Herald noted that as well per Dolphins coach Brian Flores. Even Flores’ quote regarding how they’ll use the trio of running backs and using them “situationally” concerns us a bit. However, further along in that quote by Flores notes, “Myles Gaskin can play first, second, third down, but depending on the situation, we may put another player in there.” It sounds like Flores likely will primarily use Gaskin like they did last season, given his rushing and pass-catching ability.
Gerrid Doaks
Underdog ADP of 216 – RB100
With Gerrid Doaks, it’s more of a name to monitor in dynasty leagues. The seventh-round rookie out of Cincinnati boasts a larger frame at 228-pounds yet a mediocre 99.2 (62nd-percentile) Speed Score. However, Doaks ranked in the 87th-percentile with a 127.2 Burst Score. Part of the reason Doaks lacked the college production with an 18.8% (30th-percentile) College Dominator involved injuries such as a hernia and high ankle sprain. Depending on the Dolphins’ transactions in the offseason, Doaks may have some redraft viability in 2022.
Which Dolphins RB Should We Draft?
All offseason, I suggested Myles Gaskin since he earned opportunities last season and produced. Gaskin possesses the rushing and receiving skills that we look for in PPR leagues. Even when Gaskin missed time due to injuries, Salvon Ahmed earned rushing opportunities and not many targets.
Although Malcolm Brown started the preseason game in Week 1, that doesn’t mean it’s how the Dolphins will deploy their running backs throughout the 2021 season. Even if Brown starts to earn some opportunities early in the season, it seems reminiscent of Jordan Howard’s 2020 season with 1.6 yards per touch and stat lines of ten carries for 19 yards and eight carries for seven yards.
From a real-life and fantasy standpoint, it would seem illogical to take away touches from Myles Gaskin in 2021. Although Gaskin lacks the draft capital, the Dolphins only signed Malcolm Brown to a one-year deal worth $1.55 million.
One final piece of data to close it out. Myles Gaskin produced much better overall, with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. Gaskin averaged almost 20 fantasy points per game with Tagovailoa and under 14 fantasy points per game without him at quarterback. In a zero running back draft strategy, make Gaskin a priority while also considering Salvon Ahmed in the last rounds. Even if you believe in Malcolm Brown or buy into the narrative that he’ll receive more touches, Brown lacks upside and efficiency.
