Fantasy Football Advanced Stats Week 2
The fantasy football stats we see show up on the box score, and in our fantasy leagues, are the result of many things. A player’s usage, opportunities, team context, and game script all play a part in what we see happen out on the field. To that end, it is helpful after we have a week’s worth of games to look deeper into the advanced statistics to see why certain things happen the way they did. Hopefully, this will help us better predict what will come in the future.
This weekly piece will look at several of the most interesting advanced stats from the previous slate of games. We will use it to determine if what we saw in the box score is signal or noise in terms of what to expect in future weeks.
Let’s dive into the first week of games and see what we can learn.
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Bryce Young Had the Second-Highest aDOT of Week 1
Carolina Panthers second-year quarterback Bryce Young had second the highest average depth of target (aDOT) of any quarterback last week. He also was second in deep throw percentage (DT%) among all quarterbacks. His aDOT was 11.5 yards, behind only Anthony Richardson’s 16.6 yards (Richardson went on the field and basically just threw 20 bombs). Young’s deep throw percentage was a full 20%, again second to Anthony Richardson. You may have heard, but the results didn’t exactly inspire confidence that Young has taken a step up after last year.
Those long throws resulted in Young having the lowest completion percentage of any quarterback in the NFL last week. His 43.3% completion rate even trailed quarterbacks who had abysmal days like Daniel Jones, Will Levis, and Caleb Williams. Young must, MUST, start making life easier for himself if he wants to be a successful NFL quarterback. Shorter, easier throws are going to be the way to do that. New coach Dave Canales (who came from Tampa Bay) must still think he has Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans back there, but this is not the way to handle Bryce Young right now.
Stefon Diggs Had 8 Total Air Yards
Stefon Diggs had eight total air yards on Sunday, according to FantasyPoints Data. EIGHT! That was 140th among all pass-catchers and behind such future Hall of Famers Dareke Young and MyCole Pruitt. Still, Digg had a good fantasy day because he caught a couple of goal-line touchdown passes. He is tied with Allen Lazard and Mike Evans for the NFL lead. You don’t need me to tell you that despite the scores, this is not a recipe for fantasy success moving forward.
Diggs had six total targets from C.J. Stroud, which is a good number, but still only 18.8% of the targets. He only played on % of snaps, and – at least for one week – it was clear that Nico Collins and Tank Dell were the Texans receivers you want on your roster. Collins and Dell both had seven targets to lead the team. Collins pulled in a massive 122 air yards while Dell wasn’t far behind with 114. The Texans also showed commitment to Joe Mixon at the goal line in this game, meaning Diggs is unlikely to get two gimme looks per game.
Cooper Kupp and Michael Pittman Lead the Way With 42% Target Share
Wide receiver target share leaders – Cooper Kupp and Michael Pittman – both had 42% of their team’s targets. But not all target shares are created equal and you have to feel much better about having Cooper Kupp on your roster for Week 2 than Michael Pittman. For Kupp, his 21 targets were the most since Antonio Brown had 23 in 2015. Pittman did have eight targets, which is encouraging, but as we saw from the numbers above, those targets didn’t really match up with Pittman’s game.
Michael Pittman is a possession receiver, not a downfield threat like Adonai Mitchell or Alec Pierce. Pittman caught just four of his eight targets for 31 yards, but if Richardson is going to throw just 19 times per game, and he is going to average 16.6 yards on those throws, Pittman is going to have a disappointing year.
Saquon Barkley Had 33 Rushing Yards Just in the Red Zone
Against the Green Bay Packers, Saquon Barkley had eight rush attempts in the red zone for 33 rushing yards. No other player had more than five opportunities and only Jordan Mason (26 yards) had more than 15 rushing yards. This is wonderful news for those who invested a first or second-round pick on Barkley and perhaps a little concerning for Jalen Hurts managers.
Will Barkley steal the goal line and Tush Push opportunities that allowed Hurts to thrive the last two seasons? Through one week the answer appears to be “yes.” Harts had three rushing chances inside the red zone, leading to three yards total. Hurts did not attempt a rush inside the ten-yard line but Barkley had three. One game is too small a sample to definitively say, but there is a chance that we will have to see Hurts generate most of his value with his arm this year while Barkley rules the rushes near the end zone.
Rhamondre Stevenson Forced 11 Missed Tackles
New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson forced 11 missed tackles on Sunday after being given a bell-cow workload of 78% of snaps, 25 rush attempts, and three targets. Antonio Gibson, who was Questionable with a hip injury for this game, was a non-factor and Jacoby Brissett only attempted 24 passes. This combination, plus a clear game plan from the Patriots, may set up Stevenson to be a league-winning running back this season.
The Patriots ran the ball 61% of the time last week, second only to the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is coming off a season where they only ran the ball 41% of the time last year. This game against the Bengals last week was a one-score game throughout, so it wasn’t like it was out of hand early or anything. Under new head coach Jerod Mayo, it’s now clear they want to win games with rushing and defense and leave Drake Maye on the bench to learn as long as he can.
