The first week of fantasy football bold prediction had a few misses but also a strong number of hits. In fact, one FantasyData reader gave this column quite a compliment after some calls I made that hit big.
@FantasyDataNFL More content from @CableBoxScore please. The guy is Nostadamus.
— scottpulcinitrader.com (@scottpulcinitr1) September 8, 2024
Before we get into Week 2 fantasy football bold predictions, let’s look at last week’s predictions and see how they did:
- Baker Mayfield throws touchdowns to three different receivers. Baker Mayfield was the QB2 on the week and threw four touchdowns to three different receivers.
- James Cook has over 100 total yards and two touchdowns. Cook had 103 total yards but no touchdowns. Josh Allen vultured him at the goal line two times!
- Zach Charbonnet catches five passes and a receiving touchdown. He caught two passes for 29 yards and a touchdown. Technically miss, but you’re still happy with what you got.
- Justin Jefferson and Malik Nabers both have 150+ receiving yards. Jefferson had 59 yards plus a touchdown. Malik Nabers? LOL, nope, because Daniel Jones is the worst.
- Marvin Harrison falls outside the top 20 wide receivers. Check! His tough matchup saw him catch just one ball for four yards.
- Hunter Henry catches seven passes for 90 yards and a touchdown. You see, teams would need to throw the ball for Henry to get more than 18 yards. The Patriots ran the ball 62% of the time.
- Cowboys cover (+2.5) and win outright. They were playing the corpse of Deshaun Watson, so of course they won.
- The Steelers win as underdogs (+3.5) on the road. Kirk Cousins apparently is now a statue and the Steelers’ pass rush is ferocious. Count this as a win as well.
This column will try to identify players who could have spike weeks (or bust weeks) based on their matchup, opportunity, and usage. More often than not, the players listed will not be obvious studs, and when they are discussed, it will be because I think they might underperform. It doesn’t do you any good if I predict 125 yards and a touchdown for Cooper Kupp. That’s an expected prediction. But 100 yards and a touchdown for Colby Parkinson? Now, that’s a bold prediction.
Let’s dive into Week 2 to see where we can uncover some lineup gems.
Justin Fields Rushes for Over 100 Yards Against Denver
Lost in the hype of Lamar Jackson’s 122 rushing yards, Jayden Daniels’ 80 rushing yards, or Josh Allen’s two rushing touchdowns was the fact that Geno Smith ran four times for 30 yards and a touchdown against the Denver Broncos in Week 1. The Denver secondary was about to contain Seattle’s wide receivers, but they generated very little pressure and Geno Smith was able to make big plays with his legs.
Making big plays with his legs is far and away Justin Fields’ best weapon these days. Called upon to start against the Falcons, he rushed 14 times for 57 yards, which allowed him to boost his fantasy points floor over 12 points without even throwing a touchdown. Fields has 17 games in his career where he has rushed at least 10 times, and he has fewer than 45 rushing yards in those contests just twice. If Denver is able to take George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth out of the game, this could turn into the Justin Fields show on the ground.
Alvin Kamara has Eight Receptions for 80 Receiving Yards
The New Orleans Saints are 6.5-point underdogs in a road matchup against Dallas that feels like it should be closer to 7.5 points. Dallas is likely out to another big lead in this game, and we saw what happened last week with their opponent when that happened. The Cowboys gave up eight receptions and 45 yards to Jerome Ford and Pierre Strong as the Cowboys defense became increasingly softer as the lead got bigger. Just like Deshaun Watson was forced to dink and dunk to his running backs last week, Derek Carr is likely to do the same.
Against the Panthers in Week 1, Rashid Shaheed blew the top off the defense and the tight ends scored twice. Even with all that production, Kamara still smashed with 15 rush attempts and five receptions. Jamaal Williams didn’t play any meaningful downs until garbage time. The combination of a ferocious Dallas pass rush and elite secondary defenders means Derek Carr is going to be rushed to throw. He had the 1oth-highest time to throw in Week 1, according to Next Gen Stats, but that should change in this matchup.
Drake London Scores 22+ PPR Fantasy Points
To get 22 PPR points, I’m predicting at least six catches for 100 points and a score for against a Philadelphia Eagles secondary that has hemorrhaged fantasy points to wide receivers all the way back to last season. Last year, the Eagles allowed 29.4 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, including the second-most receiving yards (3,125) and touchdowns (27) to the position. That continued in Week 1 of the 2024 season when they let Jordan Love throw for 260 yards and two touchdowns. Drake London is going to find it much easier to demand targets in this game compared to the Steelers’ brick wall that hit Kirk Cousins on Sunday.
Head Coach already came out and said they “didn’t get the ball to Drake enough” after the Week 1 loss. So this might be one of those squeaky wheel games where Drake London didn’t have to complain or squeak at all. The statuesque Kirk Cousins was a problem in Week 1, but he should face less pressure from the Eagles and have more time to throw. London ran 100% of Atlanta’s routes but saw less than half the number of targets that Ray-Ray McCloud got. That changes this week with a big game against the Eagles.
Calvin Ridley has Fewer Fantasy Points Than Chigoziem Okonkwo
Over on Pro Football Focus, they have Calvin Ridley matchup against the New York Jets’ secondary (likely Sauce Gardner) as “Poor” and one of the 15-worst of the entire week. This is on the heels of the Jets allowing just 12 of 19 completions for 146 yards to wide receivers against the Jets on Monday night. This will also impact the likes of DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd, and Treylon Burks, but Calvin Ridley out-targeted them all in Week 1. There is also the potential for horrific Will Levis to show up again, especially against a stout defense.
Levis was just 19-for-32 for 127 yards, a touchdown, two interceptions (including the meme-worthy one you’ve likely seen) and three sacks taken. Ridley only was able to catch three of seven targets against the Bears and might find a similar tough road ahead in Week 2. The Jets did allow 40 receiving yards to George Kittle last week and Chig Okonkwo got the red zone target from Levis last week, so he could have a slight advantage in Week 2.
Hayden Hurst Pulls in 50 Yards and a Touchdown
Let’s check in again with how the Carolina Panthers defense managed against a couple of average tight ends last week. For the New Orleans Saints, Foster Moreau caught four passes for 43 yards and a touchdown while Juwan Johnson hauled in two catches for 26 yards and a score. The 22.5 fantasy points allowed to the position by Carolina was at least 13 points more than 30 other NFL teams. Only the Chiefs were even close when Isaiah Likely exploded on them.
Hurst was the clear TE1 for the Chargers last week against Las Vegas. He played in 61% of the snaps and saw three targets, catching two. Justin Herbert might not be asked to throw more than 25 times in this game if Bryce Young gives the ball away and J.K. Dobbins goes nuclear again. But I’m guessing one of Herbert’s throws finds its way to the end zone in Hurst’s direction.
Bold Prediction Upsets of the Week
- The Broncos (implied total of 17 points) get shut out at home.
- Marvin Harrison gets his yards this week, but Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp connect for 12 receptions and the Rams (+1) pull off the minor upset on the road.
