The third week of fantasy football’s bold predictions had a few misses and a decent number of hits. In fact, that’s the name of the game when you dive into the bold predictions pool. The results won’t always be there, but my goal is always to have the process right.
Before we get into Week 4 fantasy football bold predictions, let’s look at last week’s predictions and see how they did:
- Joe Burrow throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns. Joe Brrrrr had 324 yards and three touchdowns. We’re starting off hot.
- Zamir White has 100 yards and two touchdowns. 34 yards and no scores. And, we’re cold again.
- Chris Olave has 125 yards and a touchdown. 86 receiving yards and a touchdown. Technically a miss, but we’re back on the right track again.
- Tyler Johnson and Jordan Whittington both score. Kyren Williams got all three scores in this game. No player had more than four catches and only one had more than 32 yards.
- Kyle Pitts Score 20 fantasy points. There were only 7.9 fantasy points as the Chiefs finally held an opposing tight end in check.
- Minnesota’s pass rush dominates and the Vikings win. Easy win. The Texans looked completely flummoxed by Brian Flores’ defense.
- The Falcons pull out a win against the Kansas City Chiefs. Five points, 11 yards, and one bone-headed fourth down play call from getting this one right.
This column will try to identify players who could have spike weeks (or bust weeks) based on their matchup, opportunity, and usage. More often than not, the players listed will not be obvious studs, and when they are discussed, it will be because I think they might underperform. It doesn’t do you any good if I predict 125 yards and a touchdown for Justin Jefferson. That’s an expected prediction. But 100 yards and a touchdown for Johnny Mundt? Now, that’s a bold prediction.
Let’s dive into Week 4 to see where we can uncover some lineup gems.
Andy Dalton has More Fantasy Points in Week 4 Than in Week 3
To be clear, this means Andy Dalton will do better than the 319 yards and three touchdowns he had against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 3. Considering the team lost Adam Thielen, this could be a tough bar to reach, but I think the Cincinnati Bengals is up for the test. Add in the revenge game narrative for Andy Dalton, and I think you certainly want to start him this week if he is on your roster.
The Bengals have allowed five total touchdowns to quarterbacks, but that’s essentially in just two games because the Patriots wouldn’t let Jacoby Brissett throw the ball much in Week 1. Cincinnati is how 20th in the NFL with 7.0 passing yards per attempt allowed and 26th in opponent quarterback rating (102.0).
Roschon Johnson Scores At Least 15 Fantasy Points
This is the week that Roschon Johnson is given the lion’s share of the work for the Chicago Bears. And it couldn’t come at a better time. The Los Angeles Rams have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including allowing the second-most rushing yards this season (405). The Rams are suffering from injuries are over both sides of the ball and have not been able to stop Jordan Mason, Kyren Williams, or any other opposing running back.
Even in just a part-time role so far, Roschon has certainly been the best running back on his team. He averages 3.8 true yards per carry and has six evaded tackles already. Caleb Williams has shown he is not going to run unless it’s absolutely necessary, and D’Andre Swift has arguably been the most inefficient back in the league. Johnson begins his takeover of this backfield in Week 4.
Jayden Reed Scores Two Touchdowns
If you can, think back to the Week 1 shootout in Brazil between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles. Jordan Love was healthy in that game and it looks like he will be again for Week 4. Jayden Reed put up 171 total yards and two touchdowns in that contest. History is about to repeat itself.
The Packers will lineup against the ferocious Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, but for the first game with Jordan Love at home, I’m predicting Mall LaFleur has something special in store for the myriad playmakers on the Green Bay offense. There is no better playmaker than Jayden Reed, who is third among wide receivers in yards per target and fourth in yards per route run. There is also no one at his position who has separated from his defenders this season, which is just icing on the cake for the “Excellent” rating the PFF gave Reed’s wide receiver-cornerback matchup this week.
Mike Evans has 150 Receiving Yards
The Philadelphia Eagles love giving up big games to opposing wide receivers, and that means it is Mike Evans’ turn in Week 4. Only the Washington Commanders and the Los Angeles Rams give up more fantasy points to the wide receiver position and they have already allowed five scores to them in three games. When the Buccaneers beat the Eagles 32-6 in the first round of the 2023 playoffs, Mike Evans was ironically the only receiver who didn’t go off in that game. After his monster 2023 season, he only had three catches for 48 yards. Baker Mayfield will get him going this time time around.
The Eagles are 30th in the league, allowing 12.0 yards per completion to opponents and their competition throws on them at a 55% rate so far in 2024. Evans has gotten off to a relatively slow start to the season, but he is also averaging 12.0 yards per catch, and has an “Excellent” PFF matchup grade. Will Baker Mayfield also get Evans in the end zone in this game? I would certainly make that bet, and you can get around +140 odds on that heading into the weekend.
Evan Engram Misses, Brenton Strange Scores a Touchdown
With the Jacksonville Jaguars being conservative with Evan Engram’s injury, they deploy the underrated Brenton Strange yet again and he scores for the second time this season. After getting shut out in Week 1, Strange has 11 targets, five receptions, 77 yards, and a touchdown since then as Lawrence has looked for reliable receivers while he is constantly battling pressure at the line. If Engram misses again, Strange should play the same role.
Trevor Lawrence has been plagued by receiver drops again this season, but he is seventh in pressure throws, eighth in money throws, sixth in air yards, and seventh in deep ball completion percentage. Strange is a large part of that success and has contributed 15.4 yards per reception. Against Houston, the Jaguars are about a touchdown underdog, meaning many more Trevor Lawrence throws are on the way.
Bold Prediction Upsets of the Week
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) in a home game that is a rematch of the first round of the 2023 NFL playoffs when the Bucs blew away the Eagles.
- Josh Allen rushes for two touchdowns and throws two touchdowns leading the Buffalo Bills to a road upset against the Baltimore Ravens (-2.5).
