Fantasy Football Bold Predictions
The fifth week of fantasy football’s bold predictions had a few misses and a decent number of hits. In fact, that’s the name of the game when you dive into the bold predictions pool. The results won’t always be there, but my goal is always to have the process right.
Before we get into Week 6 fantasy football bold predictions, let’s look at last week’s predictions and see how they did:
- Caleb Williams goes for 300/3: 304 passing yards, two touchdowns, and 34 yards rushing. We are going to go ahead and count this as a win.
- Antonio Gibson Scores 15+ fantasy points: Apparently, Jerod Mayo and I have different ideas of what it means when you say Antonio Gibson is “starting.” They think it means seven touches and less than half the snaps.
- Both Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy have 80 yards and a score: The lesson here is never, ever trust Deshaun Watson again. That goes for wide receivers, overall football talent, contracts, and any female interactions.
- Garrett Wilson finally finishes as a top-five receiver: He finished number six! It only took 22 targets to get him there, but we finally did it.
- Juwan Johnson plays 75% of snaps and scores: Johnson did play more than 75% of snaps, but stupid Foster Moreau stole another touchdown from him.
- Raiders upset the Broncos: Even with two quarterbacks the Raiders couldn’t stand up to the Denver defense to get anything going.
- The Colts upset the Jaguars: Uncle Joe Flacco almost got us there, but the Colts finished as three-point losers to the Jaguars.
This column will try to identify players who could have spike weeks (or bust weeks) based on their matchup, opportunity, and usage. More often than not, the players listed will not be obvious studs, and when they are discussed, it will be because I think they might underperform. It doesn’t do you any good if I predict 100 yards and a touchdown for Stefon Diggs this week. That’s an expected prediction. But 100 yards and a touchdown for Xavier Hutchinson? Now, that’s a bold prediction.
Let’s dive into Week 6 to see where we can uncover some lineup gems.
Jayden Daniels Sets a Career-High in Passing Yards
Through five weeks, Jayden Daniels has a high of 254 passing yards (in the game against Cincinnati where he also threw two touchdowns). Now strapping on the helmet against another AFC North opponent, the Baltimore Ravens, I think this game also shoots out and Daniels goes ballistic on the ground and through the air. To be clear, this could rival the scoring the “Game of the Year” between the Ravens and Bengals in Week 5.
This is not your father’s secondary that Baltimore is running out there these days. They allow the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year thanks to their 11.2 yards per completion allowed, which is 30th in the NFL. More than 64% of the scores against Baltimore have come through the air, and I think if Daniels is not scrambling, he will be chucking it, especially with Brian Robinson Jr. still slightly banged up.
Tyler Allgeier Rushes for 100 Yards and a Touchdown
Bijan Robinson popped up on the injury report on Thursday as a limited participant with a hamstring injury, which is certainly concerning as the week is about to end. Even if he does play fully healthy against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, he just isn’t taking away enough snaps from Tyler Allgeier to where Allgeier can’t go off against an incredibly inferior opponent.
For two straight weeks, Allgeier has more than 35% of snaps played and he has 10 and nine touches in those two games as well. Allgeier doesn’t have a rushing touchdown yet this season, but he does have seven red zone touches (Robinson has 10), so he has earned some of Raheem Morris’s trust in that area. There might also be a good amount of garbage time in this game which is where Allgeier could potentially pile up yards.
Rome Odunze Catches Eight Passes for 105 Yards
Caleb Williams not only has the tough job of learning to play quarterback at the NFL level, he also has to learn how to keep three stud wide receivers happy now that the offense is evolving. Last week, it was D.J. Moore’s turn to get the numbers (105 yards and two touchdowns). Now it’s Rome Odunze’s turn to get his 105 yards and perhaps a score to go along with it.
Jacksonville has been abysmal against outside receivers, and they allow just under 30 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. Three weeks ago it was Odunze catching six balls for 112 yards and a touchdown. Across the pond against the Jaguars this week, it’s going to be Rome’s turn to burn down London with a big game.
Zay Flowers Catches Two Touchdown Passes
See Daniels, Jayden for why I think this game will shoot out, and we know the the Washington pass defense is as weak as spinless as a D.C. politician. Only the Eagles and and Ravens allow more points to wide receivers this year, and Washington has somehow already allowed 10 passing touchdowns, two more than any other team.
Yes, we have to worry about Lamar and Derrick Henry rushing one in. The Ravens also have about five tight ends who catch passes these days. But Flowers should have the best one-on-one matchup of the game and Washington – who allows the eighth fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks – might make Lamar Jackson beat them through the air.
Kyle Pitts Scores More Fantasy Points Than in Week 5
To be clear, this means Kyle Pitts will do better than the seven catches for 88 yards that he compiled in Week 5 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Why is this so bold? Kyle Pitts’s fantasy managers know why. He has not beaten both of these numbers in a game since the fifth game of his career in October of 2021. The last time he had more than 88 yards was in December of 2021. Why do I think Pitts has two outlier-like performances back-to-back? It’s all about the matchup.
The Panthers have been one of the five worst teams against tight ends this season, and have given up more than 250 receiving yards to the position despite allowing just 26 catches on the year. They are 31st in yards per pass attempts allowed (7.9), and this could not come at a better time than when Atlanta might have finally unlocked their star tight end. Pitts was in on 85% of the snaps last week, his highest total since Week 1.
Bold Prediction Upsets of the Week
- Denver’s sudden strong defense shut down the Los Angeles Chargers (-3) run game and defeated their divisional opponent at home.
- The Buffalo Bills (-2.5) are missing too many pieces on offense and lose to a Jets team that is rejuvenated behind someone else besides Robert Saleh calling the plays.
