Bradley Stalder’s Fantasy Rankings vs. Expert Consensus Rankings
Every year FantasyPros hosts a Fantasy Football Rankings Accuracy contest with over 200 of the industry’s top writers and experts. The scoring is fierce and requires experts to perfectly predict the order in which Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, and Tight Ends will rank at the end of every NFL Week. Week 12’s Rankings Contest has its own challenges with six teams playing on Thanksgiving, pushing this content out earlier in the week. Check out the bottom of the article for my most up-to-date rankings on FantasyPros, as I anticipate a lot of news will come out to change my ranks between now and Sunday at 1 PM EST.
Last week, I finished 68th overall in the contest, with a top-7 finish at TE and the #1 overall ranking for Kickers. Entering Week 12, I stayed at 46th overall in accuracy out of 211 fantasy rankers year-to-date, including the 27th most accurate ranker for wide receivers and the 5th highest in IDP accuracy. I’m looking to make a late-season run in this contest to get back into contention for a top-10 overall bid.
Just a reminder that I also advise FantasyData’s weekly Rankings. They’re an excellent resource for anyone looking to win their league along with their player projections and advanced metrics.
Follow me on this journey as I highlight a few players I want to be higher or lower than the consensus for Week 12.
Higher Ranked QB
Geno Smith – The former 39th overall pick in the 2013 draft has far exceeded expectations this season. Coming into Week 12 off the bye, Geno Smith ranks 1st among all QBs in accuracy rating, 1st in true completion percentage, 1st in accuracy rating under pressure, 1st in accuracy rating in a clean pocket, and 1st in catchable pass rate. He’s averaging nearly 19 fantasy points per game on the season and has finished as a top-5 QB three times in the last 10 games. Smith has thrown 2+ touchdowns in eight of his ten games, and has sprinkled in 20+ rush yards in half of his games. His Week 12 matchup against the Raiders looks great on paper. The Raiders, on average, give up 247 passing yards and nearly 2 passing TDs on the season for 20 fantasy points per game allowed to QBs. Sportsbooks also project a chance for a shootout with an O/U at 47.5, implying 25.5 points for Seattle. This is the path to success for Geno. Geno slots in as a top-6 candidate for me this week with Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray nursing injuries.
Smith is the consensus QB9.
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Lower-Ranked QB
Daniel Jones – While we’re all eating turkey at 4:30 PM EST, the Dallas Cowboys are about to feast on Daniel Jones and the NY Giants. The following offensive lineman did not make the trip to Dallas for the Giants: T Evan Neal, G Shane Lemieux, C Jon Feliciano, and OL Joshua Ezeudu. Jones may be scrambling all around this game, even if Micah Parsons, himself nursing an injury, is limited. PFF projects a 39% disadvantage for the Giants Pass Blocking. And, overall, the Dallas Cowboys give up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season. They just limited Kirk Cousins to 12/23 for 105 passing yards and zero TDs to the tune of 2 total fantasy points on Sunday in their 40-3 blowout on the road. Now, Dallas gets an overperforming and short-handed Giants team at home– projected as 10-point favorites. What does this mean for Daniel Jones? Instead of a ceiling game, Jones faces a scary floor. Jones finished as the QB3 against Detroit last week but also lost rookie WR Wan’Dale Robinson for the season due to a torn ACL. Jones’ floor includes three finishes QB20 or worse. On a short week, missing a top receiving weapon, and without numerous starters on the OL, Jones is a fade this week. He’s outside my top 20 of QBs.
Jones is the consensus QB15.
Higher Ranked RB
Michael Carter – The stars are aligning for a Michael Carter boom game. With Breece Hall out, Carter has averaged 12 touches per game and finished as a top-33 RB three times in that four-week span, including a top-9 finish Week 9 against Buffalo. The matchup against Chicago looks juicy, as the Bears give up the 5th most fantasy points to the RB position on the season. Team RB groups on average go 23-109-1 and catch 4 passes on 5.5 targets for 30 yards and 0.2 receiving TDs on the season against the Bears team defense. Carter has played 50% or more of RB snaps each of the last 4 weeks since Hall’s injury, and with the Jets projected to be 6-point favorites on Sunday, Carter could be in line for even more work. Add in the Mike White narrative where Carter averaged the RB15 finish during White’s four games in 2021, there is increased optimism that Carter will be used in the passing game. Carter earned a 23.5% target share during White’s 4-game sample, which keeps Carter safely in the RB2 territory. He’ll flirt with a top-24 ranking entering Week 12.
Carter is the consensus RB34.
Lower-Ranked RB
Travis Etienne – Fantasy managers should be happy with Etienne’s ascension into an every-week RB1. He’s dominated snaps and touches in the Jacksonville backfield, especially after the trade of James Robinson to the New York Jets. And yet, this matchup against the Ravens should temper ceiling expectations. The Ravens’ defense gives up only 71 rush yards per game and 7th fewest fantasy points per game, collectively, to the opposing team’s running backs. PFF projects the Jaguars to have a 50% Run Block disadvantage against a rejuvenated Ravens team who now boasts newly acquired Roquan Smith along with Tyus Bowser and David Ojabo returning from injury. The Ravens also tend to drain the clock as they rank as the 2nd slowest team in terms of pace of play, limiting the amount of plays opposing teams run against them. This matchup projects to be a low-scoring, close game with only 20 implied points for the Jaguars. Etienne falls to my RB14 for the week.
Etienne is the consensus RB10.
Lower-Ranked WR
Chris Olave – Olave lucked out last week against the Rams. He caught Jalen Ramsey out of position and made him pay for a 50-yard TD reception. Outside of that fluke play, Olave would have had 4 catches for 50 yards. Sure, Olave has that type of boom play in his repertoire and will get that type of opportunity with the number of air yards he gets from targets each week. However, this week he also gets a tough matchup in Charvarious Ward. Ward held: Mooney to 0 catches on 3 targets; Lockett to 3-27 on 5 targets; Sutton to 2-27 on 5 targets, Allen Robinson to 2-15 on 5 targets; Drake London to a 15 yard reception; and DeAndre Hopkins to 4-46 on 6 targets. The 49ers give up the 4th fewest fantasy points to the WR position and have a projected 35% DL Pass Block Advantage over the Saints per PFF. With only 17 implied points, it will be hard for Olave to be anything more than a low-end WR2. Olave will be at best my WR20 this week.
Olave is the consensus WR14.
Higher Ranked TE
Foster Moreau – Moreau made my “Lower-Ranked TE” list last week, and it worked. He finished as the TE20 against a stingy Denver defense. But Week 12 is a whole different story. The Raiders travel to Seattle where they square off against the Seahawks in what projects to be a close, high-scoring game. Seattle’s one Achilles heel this season is allowing fantasy points to the TE position. On the season, the Seahawks give up 16.3 fantasy points per game to opposing TE corps, which on average translates to a 5-74-.5 line on 7 targets. Only Travis Kelce averages more fantasy points as a TE than what Seattle allows. Moreau has slotted in admirably with Darren Waller placed on the IR. Moreau has at least 3 targets and 28 receiving yards in every game this season. We’ve also seen a ceiling game from Moreau recently, where he finished as the TE5 against Indianapolis in Week 10. Moreau is a top-7 TE for me this week in a must-stream matchup.
Moreau is the consensus TE12.
Lower-Ranked TE
Juwan Johnson – Johnson has carved himself out a nice role as the full-time TE, playing more snaps than Adam Trautman and Taysom Hill at the position. He’s also been a trusted Red Zone threat, catching five TDs on seven RedZone targets. Johnson’s the TE8 in total points and TE13 in fantasy points per game, finishing four of the last five games as a top-8 TE. And yet, this is a full fade of the New Orleans Saints’ offense against the 49ers’ defense. The 49ers only allow 7 fantasy points per game to the TE position, 5th toughest matchup per game, and opposing TEs average 4.6 receptions for 36 yards and 0.2 TDs per game. As high as we’ve seen Johnson fly, we’ve also seen seven games where he’s finished as the TE19 or worse. So, if we’re betting on an outcome, Johnson is not likely to hit an upside week. Johnson is at best my TE15 this week.
Johnson is the consensus TE12.
