Bradley Stalder’s Fantasy Rankings vs. Expert Consensus Rankings
Every year FantasyPros hosts a Fantasy Football Rankings Accuracy contest with over 200 of the industry’s top writers and experts. The scoring is fierce and requires experts to perfectly predict the order in which Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, and Tight Ends will rank at the end of every NFL Week. Check out the bottom of the article for my most up-to-date rankings and notes on FantasyPros, as I anticipate a lot of news will come out to change my ranks between now and Sunday at 1 PM EST.
Last week, I finished 37th overall in the contest, with a top-24 finish at TE and the #10 overall ranking for DST. Entering Week 13, I moved up to 42nd overall in accuracy out of 211 fantasy rankers year-to-date. I’m looking to make a late-season run in this contest to get back into contention for a top-10 overall bid. Just a reminder that I also advise FantasyData’s weekly Rankings. They’re an excellent resource for anyone looking to win their league along with their player projections and advanced metrics.
Follow me on this journey as I highlight a few players I want to be higher or lower than the consensus for Week 13.
Higher Ranked QB
Trevor Lawrence – It’s the Detroit Lions. Not only do you play your fantasy QBs when they face the Lions, but those players also usually land in the top-5 of points scorers (sans Aaron Rodgers). Chasing a ceiling for Lawrence isn’t a bad bet either, as Lawrence has finished three of his eleven weeks as a top-5 QB on the week, and has finished as QB8 or better in four of his last 6 contests. Lawrence is the QB2 in NFL Passer Rating since Week 9 and is only 2nd behind Tua Tagovailoa (7) for most pass TDs without an INT during that span. Trevor Lawrence is a top-5 play for me this week.
Lawrence is the consensus QB9.
Lower-Ranked QB
Sign Up Today To Continue Reading…
The rest of this article is for FantasyData Subscribers only. Luckily for you, now is one of the best times of the year to subscribe. We are offering amazing deals on our Annual subscriptions. That means you get all our awesome DFS content, projections, rankings, and tools along with downloadable data for one full year. You will be set up for the rest of this NFL season and almost all of next year!
Dak Prescott – Prescott has shown some struggles as of late. Over his last 3 games, he has thrown 4 INTs, more than all but three QBs (Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, and Davis Mills) since Week 10. His PFF passer grade is his worst season grade since 2017. And he’s finished QB17 or worse in half of his games this season. The Colts only allow 15.2 fantasy points per game on the season to quarterbacks, but are the toughest matchup against opposing wide receivers, only allowing 20.1 total fantasy points to the position. Stephon Gilmore and Isaiah Rodgers are lockdown corners who limit fantasy upside for wide receivers. This could be a Zeke/Pollard game. Prescott will be at best my QB10 on the week.
Prescott is the consensus QB7.
Higher Ranked RB
D’Andre Swift – The hate for D’Andre Swift has gone too far. Even though Swift fell short of the goal line twice on Thanksgiving against the Buffalo Bills, he still finished as the RB35. What was encouraging for Swift, however, was his usage. He played his highest snap %, ran the most routes, and earned the most targets over the last 4 weeks. In fact, Week 12 marked Swift’s 2nd most opportunities (targets + carries) on the season. And, even though Swift fell on the wrong side of TD variance, his upside week to week is still massive even if he isn’t playing 60% of snaps. In fact, Swift has only played 60%+ of snaps once in his last 11 games. In what projects to be the 2nd highest O/U game total for Week 13, Swift looks to be an increasingly integral part of the Lions’ game plan. Swift is at worst my RB20 for the week.
Swift is the consensus RB30.
Lower-Ranked RB
Alvin Kamara – How can we have any confidence in Alvin Kamara? He’s had single-digit fantasy games in five of eleven games and finished RB36 or worse four different times. And this week isn’t much better. The Buccaneers may be midpack in rushing fantasy points allowed to RBs but are one of the league’s toughest units for opposing pass-catching backs. They allow the fewest receiving yards per game at 17.6; however, the difference between the Buccaneers and the 2nd toughest Detroit Lions is the difference between the Lions and the 10th fewest Philadelphia Eagles. Only two games have a lower game total O/U, suggesting Kamara will be swimming in a desert of fantasy point sand come Week 13. Kamara will be at best my RB24.
Kamara is the consensus RB14.
Higher-Ranked WR
Garrett Wilson – I’m finding any excuse I can to keep bumping Garrett Wilson up in the rankings for this week. Wilson ranks 6th in Yards After Catch per Reception, 16th in Yard Per Route Run, and 22nd in total fantasy points among Wide Receivers. He’s 11th in RedZone targets, 20th in target rate, and 23rd in receiving yards. But what’s more exciting about the 10th overall pick from the 2022 draft class is that he has really come into his own as of late. Wilson has finished as WR15 or better in three of the last 4 weeks. In those three weeks, he’s caught 19 passes for 302 yards on 24 targets and played 83% of the snaps. His Week 13 matchup is juicy as well, as the Jets travel to Minnesota to take on a Vikings team that allows the most receiving yards to WRs on the season. In a dome with a confident Mike White at the helm, how high is too high for Wilson? He’s at worst my WR13 for this week.
Wilson is the consensus WR19.
Lower-Ranked WR
Deebo Samuel – Christian McCaffrey’s existence in this 49ers offense has been bad news for Deebo Samuel. As I hypothesized after the trade from the Panthers, both McCaffrey and Deebo would compete for similar targets and consequently eat into each other’s workloads. In the 4 games both Deebo and McCaffrey have been active, Deebo has finished as the WR45 or worse in three of those games, with a combined 166 yards across the four contests. Deebo may still rank as WR10 in target rate, but as long as McCaffrey is active the floor is dangerous for Deebo’s fantasy value. Samuel ranks outside my top 24 of WRs against the Rams.
Samuel is the consensus WR18.
Higher Ranked TE
Isaiah Likely – Likely missed Week 12’s contest against Jacksonville, but Josh Oliver proved that the backup TE spot behind Mark Andrews can be fantasy relevant for positional value with how inconsistent and injured the Baltimore Ravens’ WR corps has been this season. In Likely’s absence, Oliver finished as the TE2 overall, going 4-76-1 on 6 targets, which was 2nd only to Andrews on the team. Likely himself was coming off two-straight 5+ target games before leaving Week 11 with the ankle injury. While his snaps may be something to monitor, Likely is clearly in line for a heavy role and comes in no worse than my TE15, barring any setbacks.
Likely is the consensus TE43.
Lower-Ranked TE
Greg Dulcich – The Broncos’ spiral to the pit of fantasy despair doesn’t help matters, but Greg Dulcich hasn’t been much of a fantasy asset as of late. He’s dead last among qualified TEs in Yards per route run and PFF RECV grade over the last three weeks. During that span, two of Dulcich’s three weeks have finished TE34 or worse. He’s still playing 86% of snaps and running 29+ routes per game, but a bad offense and bad production compound the limitations of his upside. His only hope each week is to fall into the EndZone. Dulcich is my TE19 for the week.
Dulcich is the consensus TE13.
