Bradley Stalder’s Fantasy Rankings vs. Expert Consensus Rankings
Every year FantasyPros hosts a Fantasy Football Rankings Accuracy contest with over 200 of the industry’s top writers and experts. The scoring is fierce and requires experts to perfectly predict the order in which Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, and Tight Ends will rank at the end of every NFL Week. Check out the bottom of the article for my most up-to-date rankings and notes on FantasyPros, as I anticipate a lot of news will come out to change my ranks between now and Sunday at 1 PM EST.
Last week, I finished 66th overall in the contest, with a top-8 finish at WR, top-5 at Kickers, and top-4 in IDP. Entering Week 14, I stayed at 42nd overall in accuracy out of 211 fantasy rankers year-to-date. Just a reminder that I also advise FantasyData’s weekly Rankings. They’re an excellent resource for anyone looking to win their league along with their player projections and advanced metrics.
Follow me on this journey as I highlight a few players I want to be higher or lower than the consensus for Week 14.
Higher Ranked QB
Jared Goff – The Lions have scored the 6th most points on the season and enter Week 14 projected for the 2nd highest game total on the week, squaring off against the Minnesota Vikings at home. All three of Jared Goff’s top-8 weekly performances have happened at home this year, including his QB1 overall finish Week 4 against Seattle. As for the matchup, the Minnesota Vikings give up the most passing yards (280) to opposing QBs on the season, and just allowed Mike White to finish as the QB7 overall despite the fact that White did not throw for a TD in the game. Amon-Ra St. Brown and DJ Chark have good matchups, even without counting what 1st round pick Jameson Williams could do if given a few more snaps and targets makes me interested in Goff. It also helps that pass-catching RB D’Andre Swift is off the injury report. The Lions are full go, and so will Jared Goff for my fantasy lineups. Jared Goff is my QB7 on the week.
Goff is the consensus QB11.
Lower-Ranked QB
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Josh Allen – It’s hard to rank perhaps the best fantasy QB anywhere outside of the top-2. But here we are. Allen has finished as the weekly QB6 or worse in three of the last four weeks. During that span, Allen has seen inconsistent rushing totals including games of 20 and 7 yards, exposing a scarier floor than we’ve seen previously. And the passing hasn’t been much better. Josh Allen ranks as the 19th of 31 qualified QBs in NFL passer rating during that span. And the Jets’ defense is no joke. They limited Allen to 18/34 for 205 passing yards in their first meeting Week 9. While Allen did scramble for 86 yards, he also threw 2 INTs. The Jets have a projected 29% Defensive Line Pass Block Advantage over the Bills offensive line, and grade out as the 2nd best defensive coverage unit per PFF. Not only do the Jets grade out well, they allow the 3rd fewest fantasy points to WRs on the season, led by lockdown ROY candidate Sauce Gardner. I have Allen as my QB6 overall this week.
Allen is the consensus QB2.
Higher Ranked RB
Travis Homer – With DeeJay Dallas and Kenneth Walker not expected to play in the Week 14 contest against the Carolina Panthers, Travis Homer (who returned to practice this week) is poised to be the majority ball-carrier in the Seattle backfield. In his two career games with double digit touches, Homer averaged 9.4 fantasy points, over 5 yards per carry, 5.5 receptions, and 28 receiving yards per game. It may not sounds like a lot, but with six teams on a bye, the former 6th round pick in 2019 projects for the most upside among Seattle RBs this week. I’ll rank Homer in my top-30 of RBs barring any news.
Homer is the consensus RB45.
Lower-Ranked RB
Dameon Pierce – The second half of the season has not been kind to Dameon Pierce. Even though he had a streak of seven top-20 finishes, Pierce has been scripted out of games lately. In Weeks 11 and 12, Pierce combined for 16 yards on 15 carries. He may have earned 9 targets, but only converted those into 5 catches for 17 receiving yards. He hasn’t scored a TD since Week 8. The Cowboys are 17.5-point favorites in this game, and the Cowboys give up the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing Running Backs. Pierce will safely be outside my top-24 of running backs this week, even during bye-pocalypse.
Pierce is the consensus RB16.
Higher-Ranked WR
Mike Williams – Williams practiced in full on Thursday and, barring any set back, is good to go for Sunday’s matchup against the Miami Dolphins. He’s startable as a high-end WR3 for me. I would normally be very cautious with Williams coming off a re-aggravation of the ankle injury but a full-go on a Thursday practice eases my mind. This specific WR/CB matchup projects to be a juicy one. Williams projects to draw Keion Crossen who allows the 2nd highest yards per reception and 3rd highest NFL passer rating among all CBs with at least 190 snaps. In a game which projects as a 50+ point total, I’m very interested in starting Williams as he ranks in the top-30 of WRs for me this week.
Williams is the consensus WR60.
Lower-Ranked WR
DeAndre Hopkins – Hopkins has finished WR15 or worse three of the last four games. Hollywood Brown out-targeted Hopkins in Brown’s return from the Injured Reserve list. Rondale Moore may make his return here in Week 14. And the matchup is not something to scoff at. The Patriots give up the 9th fewest fantasy points to Wide Receivers on the season. Jonathan Jones, who projects to line up majority of snaps against Hopkins, has allowed more than 50 receiving yards in two of his eleven games and only a 58% completion percentage. It’s hard to bet against Nuk, but Hopkins is my WR15 for Week 14.
Hopkins is the consensus WR9.
Higher Ranked TE
Gerald Everett – Everett has had some nice ceiling finishes (four top-8 weekly finishes) on the season so far and is looking like one of my better season-long sleeper calls coming to fruition. The Chargers may get Mike Williams back this week, but that’s no reason to fade Everett. In the game where Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both played this year, Everett finished as the TE4 on the week. I expect Everett’s consensus ranking to drop upon Williams’ return, but I want to remain bullish on Everett in a shaky TE landscape during bye-pocalypse. Everett has earned 6+ targets in 7 of 11 games, and gets the Miami Dolphins who allow the 3rd most fantasy points to TEs on the season. Among 21 qualified TEs, Everett is 4th in yards after catch and 6th in TE REC grade over his last three games. He’s been a quality starter for fantasy, and coming off a 5-80 on 6 target performance, fire up Everett with confidence. I have Everett at TE5 this week.
Everett is the consensus TE8.
Lower-Ranked TE
Tyler Conklin – The last time Conklin played the Bills, he caught 1 pass for 7 yards and ranked as the TE42 on the week. It was disastrous. Now we get round 2. And Conklin has not faired well since Week 9. Over his last three games, Conklin has earned 13 targets, caught 7 passes for 74 yards and caught zero TDs. During that stretch, Conklin grades as the worst of 22 qualified TEs in TE REC score and is 20th among TEs in yards per route run. To add insult to injury, Conklin’s individual LB/TE matchup is one of the toughest on for Week 14, as he matches up against Tremaine Edmunds, who grades as the 3rd best LB on the season, per PFF. Conklin is outside my top-24 of TEs this week.
Conklin is the consensus TE14.
