Every year FantasyPros hosts a Fantasy Football Rankings Accuracy contest with over 200 of the industry’s top writers and experts. The scoring is fierce and requires experts to perfectly predict the order in which Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, and Tight Ends will rank at the end of every NFL Week. Check out the bottom of the article for my most up-to-date rankings and notes on FantasyPros, as I anticipate a lot of news will come out to change my ranks between now and Sunday at 1 PM EST. NOTE: There are three Saturday games, so make sure to set your lineups accordingly.
Last week, I finished 125th overall in the contest, with a 17th finish at Kicker rankings and 13th ranking at IDP. Entering Week 15, I’m 50th overall in accuracy out of 211 fantasy rankers year-to-date. Just a reminder that I also advise FantasyData’s weekly Rankings. They’re an excellent resource for anyone looking to win their league along with their player projections and advanced metrics.
Follow me on this journey as I highlight a few players I want to be higher or lower than the consensus for Week 15.
Higher Ranked QB
Matt Ryan – Ryan has struggled over the last three games– finishing as the QB22 or worse every week during that span. The Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Dallas defenses are no joke. But there is hope on the horizon. Matt Ryan gets the Minnesota Vikings this week in what projects to put Ryan on the streaming radar. And, Ryan has hit ceiling games against bad defenses this year– finishing as the weekly QB2 against Jacksonville and the QB5 against Las Vegas. The Vikings allow the most passing yards, 6th most fantasy points, and are the 6th best Pass DVOA matchup to the QB position. They just allowed Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff to throw for 3 TDs and 330 yards. Matt Ryan ranks as my QB12 this week.
Ryan is the consensus QB21.
Lower-Ranked QB
Patrick Mahomes – Mahomes has faced tougher secondaries as of late. The Rams, Bengals, and Broncos all have limited to Mahomes to no better than a top-6 QB finish. In fact, lost in the road win against Denver was that Mahomes had thrown 3 INTs. He now gets a Houston Texans secondary that, while ranking poorly in metrics, have given up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs. This is due to the Houston run defense giving up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. This projects as an Isiah Pacheco game, however, Mahomes is still startable– we just need to lower expectations a bit Mahomes is my QB5 on the week.
Mahomes is the consensus QB2.
Higher Ranked RB
JK Dobbins – We saw what we wanted to see from JK Dobbins in Week 14 in his return from the knee injury. Dobbins led the Ravens in rushes, carried the ball 15 times, ran for 120 yards, scored a TD, and had nice burst on his breakaway run. The Ravens face the Cleveland Browns on Saturday. The Browns allow the third most fantasy points to running backs and are Football Outsider’s 3rd most favorable rush DVOA matchup. With Tyler Huntley expected to return from his concussion, fantasy managers should have more confidence in the Baltimore offense getting into scoring range. Dobbins will be no worse than my RB12 on the week.
Dobbins is the consensus RB22.
Lower-Ranked RB
Alvin Kamara – Kamara has continued to struggle since Week 9, finishing no better than the RB19 during that span. In fact, over the past two weeks, Alvin Kamara has finished as the RB51 and RB45, with 87 scrimmage yards on 27 touches during that span. It’s been ugly. And while Atlanta may be a tempting matchup, the optimism seems unfounded. In Week 1 against the Falcons, Alvin Kamara finished as the RB47 with 46 total yards on 12 touches. PFF projects the Atlanta Falcons’ defensive line to have a 44% Run Block over the New Orleans Saints offensive line, limiting the rushing upside of Kamara. Kamara is outside my top 24 of RBs on the week.
Kamara is the consensus RB10.
Higher-Ranked WR
Elijah Moore – Moore is the perfect cheap stack with Mike White. The Lions give up the most fantasy points to QBs on the year, and also give up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Moore finally eclipsed 80% snap share since he was benched back in the middle of the season. Granted Corey Davis left this game early, but Elijah Moore played ahead of Denzel Mims. Moore earned 10 targets, caught 6 passes, and earned his 4th red zone target over his last two games. Find a way to get Elijah Moore into your Week 15 lineups. Elijah Moore is my WR27 this week.
Moore is the consensus WR41.
Lower-Ranked WR
Mike Evans – The last five weeks have not been kind to Mike Evans. He’s finished as the WR34 or worse each of those weeks, and has finished as WR44 or worse in four of those games. He’s fallen on the wrong side of variance, as Brady has missed him on deep passes or Evans has egregiously dropped a few passes. Even though Evans has commanded a large target share, (22 targets over the last 3 games), he only has 10 receptions to show for it. Brady may lead the league in pass attempts, but his yards per attempt is 22nd among qualified QBs. Brady is turning Chris Godwin into Diontae Johnson and Evans into George Pickens. The matchup doesn’t help this week as the Cincinnati Bengals allow the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs. Mike Evans is my WR30 this week.
Evans is the consensus WR23.
Higher Ranked TE
David Njoku – The calculus is simple for David Njoku. He’s the TE6 in fantasy points per game on the season. He commands nearly 25% of the targets when on the field. He’s TE7 in yards per route run and yards per target. He’s TE6 in yards per team pass attempt. So he’s clearly in the top-6 tier. But this week Amari Cooper is expected to be limited due to his hip injury– it’s clearly limited him as Cooper has finished as the WR55 or worse each of the past two weeks. The last time Njoku played Baltimore, he finished as the TE5 and went 7-71 on 7 targets but did not fall into the End Zone. That may change this week. David Njoku is my TE2 on the week.
Njoku is the consensus TE6.
Lower-Ranked TE
Evan Engram – What goes up must come down. That is the case for Evan Engram. While he propelled many Best ball drafters into the playoffs, his matchup in Week 15 is much less favorable. The Dallas Cowboys give up the fewest fantasy points to TEs and Engram’s TE/LB matchup projects as a -22% ADV in Dallas’ favor. We’ve seen scary floors from Engram, as he’s finished as the TE50, TE35, TE39, and TE50 four different weeks this year, whether it be due to matchup or game script. Engram is a boom/bust TE2, not the confident Back-end TE1 he’s projected as, nor as the TE4 he ranks in half PPR scoring. Evan Engram is my TE15 on the week.
Engram is the consensus TE9.
