Fantasy Football Rankings Vs. ECR Week 16
Every year FantasyPros hosts a Fantasy Football Rankings Accuracy contest with over 200 of the industry’s top writers and experts. The scoring is fierce and requires experts to perfectly predict the order in which Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, and Tight Ends will rank at the end of every NFL Week. Check out the bottom of the article for my most up-to-date rankings and notes on FantasyPros, as I anticipate a lot of news will come out to change my ranks between now and Saturday at 1 PM EST. NOTE: There are 11 Saturday games, so plan accordingly around any Christmas holiday plans.
Last week, I finished 113th overall in the contest, with a 19th finish at TE rankings and 6th ranking at IDP. Entering Week 16, I’m 56th overall and 35th at WRs in accuracy out of 211 fantasy rankers year-to-date. Just a reminder that I also advise FantasyData’s weekly Rankings. They’re an excellent resource for anyone looking to win their league along with their player projections and advanced metrics.
Follow me on this journey as I highlight a few players I want to be higher or lower than the consensus for Week 16.
Higher Ranked QB
Kenny Pickett – Pickett was knocked out early in his Week 14 matchup and missed all of Week 15 due to the concussion protocol. He’s expected to start on Saturday night against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders have been a plus matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 6th most passing yards and 9th most fantasy points to opposing QBs. And, over his last three games, Kenny Pickett has the 4th highest PFF passer grade since Week 12 among QBs with at least 69 dropbacks– behind Trevor Lawrence, Andy Dalton, and Joe Burrow. In games where Pickett plays the majority of snaps, he also has shown some mobility, rushing for 20+ yards in four of those 7 games. Pickett has finished as the QB17 or better on three different occasions this year, and that’s where I have him bumped up to this week.
Pickett is the consensus QB21.
Lower-Ranked QB
Tyler Huntley – Huntley has been dealing with a shoulder injury that limited his practice this week. While he is expected to start, there isn’t much optimism about Huntley as even a deep-league consideration as your SuperFlex or QB2. He’s thrown no more than 187 yards in his three starts, he’s finished outside the top-25 of quarterbacks in two of those three starts, Huntley ranks 40th of 44 qualified quarterbacks in PFF passer grade and is 44th of 44 quarterbacks in NFL passer rating. He’s simply been bad this season. Huntley is my QB27 for Week 16
Huntley is the consensus QB22.
Higher Ranked RB
Tyler Allgeier – Who leads all RBs in PFF rushing grade since Week 12? Tyler Allgeier. Allgeier has averaged 82 rushing yards per game over his last 3 contests and has earned double-digit carries in ten of thirteen games this season. He gets the Baltimore Ravens this week, who just gave up 143 rushing yards. Since Week 12, Allgeier is RB4 in yards after contact per carry, and 8th in Breakaway run rate. While he ranks dead last during that time with a -0.1 Yards per route run, Atlanta is projected by PFF to have a 28% Run Block advantage over the Baltimore defensive line. Allgeier is a sneaky play and a deeper league flex consideration. Allgeier is my RB31 on the week.
Allgeier is the consensus RB37.
Lower-Ranked RB
D’Onta Foreman – Foreman faces the Detroit Lions in Week 16. The Lions have only allowed 55.7 rushing yards per game over the last three games, and only 50 yards rushing in Week 15– the toughest matchup during that span. Foreman has also been losing out on snaps, out-snapped nearly 2 to 1 by Chuba Hubbard in Week 15. To make matters worse, Foreman hasn’t been effective either, ranking 42nd of 47 running backs in yards per carry since Week 12. Foreman is a zero as a weapon in the passing game, earning 1 target since Week 12, and mustering a measly 0.06 yards per route run. Foreman falls outside my top 40 of RBs in Week 16.
Foreman is the consensus RB34.
Higher-Ranked WR
DJ Moore – Start your WRs against the Lions. The Lions allow the most receiving yards and 2nd most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Especially with how stout their front-7 has been this season (see D’Onta Foreman), Moore is in a prime spot to smash. Since Week 12, DJ Moore leads all WRs, who have at least 12 targets, in yards per route run. Moore’s ceiling isn’t something to ignore, either. Moore has finished as a top-13 WR on four different occasions– against Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Denver, and Pittsburgh. While he did so with TDs, the Detroit Lions allow the 9th most WR TDs on the season. Moore is a top-15 WR for me this week given his boom potential and plus matchup.
Moore is the consensus WR21.
Lower-Ranked WR
Amari Cooper – Cooper has struggled as of late, dealing with a nagging hip injury. That, and Deshaun Watson’s rust, has limited Cooper to no better than the WR44 finish each of his last 3 games. Cooper has had scary floor games this season, with three other contests falling outside the top 65 of WRs. Among WRs with at least 11 targets since Week 12, Amari Cooper is 76th of 91 WRs in NFL passer rating when his QB targets him. With the weather, wind, and cold expected to significantly impact this game, downgrading Amari Cooper from a high-end WR3 seems appropriate. Cooper is my WR39 this week.
Cooper is the consensus WR28.
Higher Ranked TE
Taysom Hill – Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry have been ruled out for the game against Cleveland. That leaves rookie Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson, Alvin Kamara, and Taysom Hill as the four skill position players left. With wind gusts projected to hit over 60 mph and a windchill making it feel like -18 degrees Fahrenheit, this game environment does not project for much passing. Although, it’s not like the Saints were doing that anyway– Andy Dalton only threw 17 passes in Week 15 against Atlanta. We’ve seen three different instances of Taysom Hill carrying the ball 9+ times this season. He averages 75 yards rushing and 1 TD in those games. There may not be much to get excited about in this game that has a projected total of 32 points, but there could be plenty of touches for Hill. Taysom Hill is my TE7 on the week.
Hill is the consensus TE11.
Lower-Ranked TE
Mark Andrews – How can there be any trust in Mark Andrews going into such a pivotal week? Andrews has finished as the TE23 and TE24 each of the last two weeks with Tyler Huntley under center. And now Huntley is reportedly dealing with a shoulder injury. Andrews’ ECR is TE2, but he hasn’t finished as a top-5 weekly TE since Week 6 when Lamar Jackson was healthy. The projected game total for the BAL-ATL game is 35 points– not much opportunity for Andrews to hit any sort of ceiling. Andrews is my TE9 for Week 16.
Andrews is the consensus TE2.
