Thursday Night Football Preview
Line: New York Jets (-0.5) | O/U 36
After an incredible weekend of football, Week 16 is here with many teams hoping to make their late-season playoff push. Speaking of a playoff push, both of the teams playing in this Thursday night matchup are competing with one another for the AFC’s final postseason spot.
Most would’ve seen this upcoming matchup at the beginning of the year and groaned. But recently, these two teams have constructed entertaining on-field products that actually competitive with real shots at making the playoffs for the first time in a while.
For Week 16 Thursday Night Football, the Jacksonville Jaguars will travel to MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Jets.
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Team Breakdowns
The quarterbacks for this game will be the top two picks from the 2021 draft with Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson. However, both of their seasons have gone in opposite directions as Lawrence is taking the next step to stardom while Wilson is getting benched while his team succeeds as a result.
Both teams are going in opposite directions as well, with the Jaguars winning three of their last four and the Jets losing three of their last four. With both of them sitting within a game of one another, this matchup has become very important for each of their wild-card chances, and possibly Jacksonville’s chances at an AFC South title.
The market consensus currently has the Jets as 0.5-point favorites with the over/under set at 36. See all NFL Odds Here.
The Jaguars:
Notable Injuries: LT Cam Robinson (Out), LB Travon Walker (Out)
After a dreadful 2021 that had fans questioning if there was any light at the end of the tunnel for the Jacksonville Jaguars, the team went on an off-season frenzy that has allowed them to improve as a team. With plenty of new faces entering the building and a competent head coach leading the way in Doug Pederson, the Jags appeared to be a team on the rise in 2022. A 2-6 start to the season put a damper on things, but this group has picked themselves up lately, particularly on the offensive side.
On defense, the Jaguars have been one of the lesser units in football this season. They rank 27th in yards allowed per game, 29th against the pass, and 16th against the run. However, the team is also fourth in defensive turnover rate and eighth in pressure rate.
The group has some solid personnel with Josh Allen, Arden Key, and Tyson Campbell having strong seasons. They also have the number one pick Travon Walker who has had his moments along with Rayshawn Jenkins, who had an insane performance in Week 15.
Rayshawn Jenkins just had one of the best games in #NFL History:
18 tackles
2 INTs
2 PDs
1 Walk-Off Pick 6 pic.twitter.com/7NhQcYxdwb— uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) December 18, 2022
The group will plan on having a solid performance against a Jets offense that has struggled with Zach Wilson at the helm.
The offense has taken a huge step forward this season. With some actual coaching provided by Doug Pederson, the team ranks sixth in yards per game, 10th in passing, and 10th in rushing. They’re also sixth in offensive turnover rate and 11th in scoring rate.
They’re led by second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence who has taken a huge step forward in their last few games as he leads the league in passing touchdowns over the last four weeks. They also have some solid receivers that have built connections with their quarterback in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and tight end Evan Engram. Running back Travis Etienne has also had some strong showings in the first healthy season of his career.
They aim to continue putting up points against a New York defense that has limited opponents throughout this season.
The Jets:
Notable Injuries: DT Quinnen Williams (Questionable)
The Jets have had an up-and-down year. However, for the future roster they’re building, it has been incredibly successful. Despite being last in the tough AFC East, the team has made major improvements on both sides of the ball with their young core.
Their defense has been one of the better units in football as they’re third in yards allowed per game, fourth against the pass, 11th against the run, and 13th in pressure rate. They aren’t the best at forcing turnovers though as they rank 22nd in defensive turnover rate.
The personnel is led by a couple of incredible young players in Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner. Williams has quickly become one of, if not the, best run-stopping defensive linemen in the NFL while Gardner is a lockdown corner on his way to winning Defensive Rookie of the Year. They also have other strong defenders like Sheldon Rankins, C.J. Mosley, John Franklin-Myers, and D.J. Reed Jr. This group is full of talent, but they’ll have a tough test against this hot Jacksonville offense.
Offensively, the Jets have been a struggle for most of the season. They rank 19th in yards per game, 15th in passing, and 24th in rushing. They’re also 15th in offensive turnover rate and 25th in scoring rate.
New York had a stretch early in the season where they were shaping into one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL. But thanks to a season-ending injury to rookie sensation Breece Hall, that strength fell apart. Now, with a combination of Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight, they’ve been less threatening.
we might just have to keep a camera on @GarrettWilson_V every play pic.twitter.com/dULkwL83HX
— New York Jets (@nyjets) December 20, 2022
The passing game in this offense is confusing because the weapons have amazing potential with Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore shaping up to be a strong duo. But the quarterback play has been up in the air as they succeed with Mike White but are hit or miss with Zach Wilson. This week they have Wilson at quarterback, so it’s anybody’s guess how they will perform.
On the bright side, the offense had a few moments against the Detroit Lions in Week 15, so there is some hope for them against a weak Jaguars defense on Thursday.
Jaguars vs. Jets Prediction
With this game being nearly a toss-up by the consensus odds, it’s a bit of a challenge coming to a conclusion on who will walk out of MetLife Stadium with a win.
But with the recent performances of both teams, it feels like a safe bet to favor the Jacksonville Jaguars in this one as their offense has been second to none lately with the emergence of Trevor Lawrence. The Jets do have a tough defense to move the ball on, but I have a feeling that the Jaguars will push through to win their fourth game out of their last five.
The Pick: Jaguars ML
NFL DFS Showdown Flex Targets
RB – Zonovan Knight ($7,000)
In a game where bad weather is expected to play a role, targeting either team’s run game is a solid strategy. With Jacksonville having the worse run defense of the two teams, it’s looking like the Jets’ lead back, Zonovan Knight, might be the best play. Even after a tough game against Detroit, New York will likely be relying on Knight to carry their offense with Zach Wilson at the helm, making him a candidate for a bounce-back this week.
TE – Evan Engram ($7,600)
Evan Engram is looking like a solid play in this game. Despite being disappointing for most of the season, he is on an impressive stretch with double-digit points in three straight games. In those performances, he’s also seen no less than seven targets. With Trevor Lawrence riding hot and locking onto Engram, he could easily continue his impressive play on Thursday.
WR – Elijah Moore ($4,800)
After being disgruntled with his targets for a large portion of this season, Elijah Moore has been seeing increased work as of late while working primarily out of the slot. Even with Zach Wilson at quarterback last week, Moore saw seven targets come his way. That’s more than he had in any other game with Wilson all season. With very little value in this game, Moore could be a solid cheaper option for lineups.
