Start ‘EM Sit ‘EM Week 16
Week 15 was one of the most memorable weekends in NFL history, with huge comebacks, bone-headed decision-making, missed field goals, huge turnovers, and a ton of touchdowns. Who would’ve expected Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars to completely turn the franchise around and maintain playoff hopes this late in the season? Detroit is another team accustomed to losing in a heartbreaking fashion that has now flipped a switch and found its formula for winning close games under the leadership and coaching of Dan Campbell. Houston played Dallas and Kansas City to the final minutes and even overtime, while rookie quarterback Brock Purdy is playing confidently as San Francisco’s signal-caller, eliminating a lot of concerns about the 49ers’ outlook in the postseason. Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals are playing complimentary football, with the third-year quarterback creeping up the MVP odds race. Meanwhile, Justin Herbert finally has a healthy wide receiving corps, allowing the Chargers to go 3-1 in their last four games played, positioning themselves for a late-season run at clinching a playoff berth for the first time in Herbert’s career.
For the sake of time, I’m not going to recap how my recommended players fared last week, but we can say that we’ve had better weeks. I’ve gathered data and scrutinized the upcoming matchups on a jam-packed Week 16 slate that has over a dozen teams jockeying for playoff seeds. The stakes are high but even higher in fantasy football. Here are the players who made my list for the final edition of the 2022 Start ‘EM Sit ‘EM series. Let’s go win some championships!
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Start
Ezekiel Elliot (RB) Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliot has been the definition of a touchdown machine in the latter half of the 2022 season. While Tony Pollard possesses a higher ceiling than Elliot, the seventh-year running back has at least one rushing touchdown since Week 6, while also collecting a handful of targets per week. You’re getting 15-18 PPR points, plus Elliot will face an Eagles run defense that has been relatively vulnerable this season. Expect Elliot to extend his scoring streak and handle another 18 touches in a big divisional game at home against Philadelphia in Week 16, making him a high-end RB2 with a low-end RB1 ceiling.
Isiah Pacheco (RB) Kansas City Chiefs
Last week was touted as the Isiah Pacheco breakout week against Houston’s 32nd-ranked run defense, but it turned out to be Jerick McKinnon. Pacheco has had a great rookie season with the Chiefs, but he’s been limited in the passing game, which lowers his ceiling. Regardless, Seattle is another fantastic matchup, ranking as the second-best opponent for fantasy running backs this season. Pacheco is averaging well over 5.0 YPC recently and still gets 13-22 carries per game. Kansas City will move the ball effectively against the Seahawks’ porous run defense in Week 16, creating goal-line opportunities for Pacheco to convert, making him a rock-solid RB2 with high-end RB2 upside.
D’Andre Swift (RB) Detroit Lions
Rolling with D’Andre Swift in the fantasy playoffs is a massive risk considering his usage in Detroit’s backfield, but it’s a necessary risk we have to take. Swift has only had one game below double-digit PPR points in his past five games played, averaging 6.5 YPC against the Jets in Week 15 and also hauling in five of nine targets for 23 yards. As long as Swift remains with this high target rate, he should be valued as a high-end RB2 with a low-end RB1 ceiling. Carolina is a good matchup, ranked 14th for fantasy running backs, so expect the Lions to continue giving Swift 12-15 touches that could turn into huge production in Week 16.
Chris Godwin (WR) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady is in one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league and Chris Godwin is a direct beneficiary of this scheme. The sixth-year wideout has been soaking up eight to 13 targets in each of his past five games played, producing a double-digit PPR floor with WR1 upside. When Godwin finds the end zone, as he did against Cincinnati’s tough secondary in Week 15, he delivers at least 20 PPR points. He’s a bonafide wideout and a borderline WR1 against the Arizona Cardinals on the road in Week 16.
Garrett Wilson (WR) New York Jets
As scary as it was watching Zach Wilson return under center, he still connected with talented rookie wideout Garrett Wilson four times on nine targets, which led to 98 receiving yards. It was enough to boost the rookie into WR2 territory with 13.8 PPR points, which he’s logged in two consecutive games. The Jets will get another plus matchup against Jacksonville’s pass defense, which has been torched enough to rank as a top-ten fantasy wide receiver matchup in Week 16. Treat Wilson as a mid-range WR2 with a low-end WR1 ceiling if he can find the end zone for the first time since Week 12 against Chicago.
Jerry Jeudy (WR) Denver Broncos
Even without Russell Wilson under center, Denver’s third-year wideout, Jerry Jeudy, gave fantasy managers a nice floor with 14.6 PPR points in Week 15. Jeudy commands targets, and catches most of them, as he showed us his ceiling with a three-touchdown performance against Kansas City in Week 14. Treat Jeudy as a high-end WR2 against the Rams’ porous secondary, which ranks as a top-12 matchup for Jeudy in Week 16.
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE) Tennessee Titans
Tight end is a difficult position to fill in fantasy football this season, but rookie Chig Okonkwo has developed a consistent pass-catching role with Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans. Okonkwo came up with a huge reception late in Week 15 against the Los Angeles Chargers, winding up with four receptions on five targets for 54 yards. It was his second time going over 50 yards in three weeks, while he scored a touchdown and a two-point conversion when falling under 50 total yards. Houston is a top-ten matchup for fantasy tight ends, so keep Okonkwo plugged into lineups.
Aaron Rodgers (QB) Green Bay Packers
Play the matchup with the quarterback in Week 16 and insert Aaron Rodgers into your fantasy lineups. Yes, he’s been held under 20 PPR points in every single game this season, but Green Bay has a lot to play for in terms of a final playoff seed, and they’ll face the second-best defense for fantasy quarterbacks in Week 16 on the road against the Miami Dolphins. The Packers’ wide receiving corps is healthy and has plenty of weapons, headlined by rookie wideout Christian Watson, while Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon can take a screen pass and turn it into a huge gain or a touchdown. Rodgers is a high-end QB2 with top-eight upside at the quarterback position during a must-win game in South Beach.
Sit
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB) Jacksonville Jaguars
We started to see Travis Etienne get going in Week 15 against the Dallas defense, logging 12.7 PPR points, but his inability to find the end zone continues to limit his ceiling. Jacksonville will face a Jets defense that can be run on, but it won’t be easy. I cannot trust Etienne in a must-win fantasy playoff matchup, especially on a short week on the road against a Jets defense that could add Quinnen Williams back into the mix, further complicating Etienne’s upside. Sit him and pivot elsewhere, as the Jags are now a pass-centric offense with Trevor Lawrence playing high-caliber football.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR) Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman should’ve had a much better outing in Week 15 against Minnesota, but he still logged ten receptions for 60 yards with another 30 rushing yards for good measure. So why bench Pittman? He’s tied to Matt Ryan, for starters, plus the Colts will play a Chargers’ defense that ranks as the eighth-toughest fantasy matchup for wide receivers. He just had arguably the best matchup of the season against Minnesota and still couldn’t deliver a 20-point ceiling or find the end zone, so I’m sitting him for other WR2s in a bad matchup during Week 16.
Greg Dulcich (TE) Denver Broncos
We’ve now seen rookie tight end Greg Dulcich fail to deliver any semblance of upside in five of his past six games played. He hauled in six of eight targets for 85 yards against Baltimore in Week 13, but he’s been burning fantasy managers since that performance. It’s likely due to the return of Jerry Jeudy, so let’s not bank on another high target share for the rookie tight end in a tough matchup against the Los Angeles Rams’ front seven at SoFi Stadium in Week 16.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB) Miami Dolphins
The Green Bay Packers are allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. This is not ideal for Tua Tagovailoa, who hasn’t thrown for over 240 yards or two touchdowns in a couple of weeks. The Dolphins are on a three-game losing skid and need to win, but the Packers’ secondary is the strength of the defense, so we could see a lot more Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson absorbing touches in the running game. Tagovailoa is a low-end QB1 and without any rushing upside, he should be benched in a tough matchup for better streaming options.
