Fantasy Football Sleepers: Playoff Edition

By Corbin Young | December 16, 2021

Fantasy Football Sleepers

With playoffs starting in Week 15 for most, don’t bench a stud player unless we have injury concerns. In past weeks, we discussed several deep-league options with risks associated. However, don’t overthink the matchups for proven players at this point. For instance, a couple of the top playoff sleepers at quarterback include Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields, and Jimmy Garoppolo. There’s an argument to start them over an injured Jalen Hurts. However, if healthy, Hurts provides top-5 upside. 

We won’t have as many sleeper options since we hope we don’t rely on several risky players. In this week’s sleeper article, we’ll review Week 14. Then, we’ll look at quarterback options outside the top-12 plus backs and receivers in the RB3 or WR3 range. 

Quick Links

Week 14 Sleepers Recap

Cam Newton scored a rushing touchdown early in the game but struggled as a passer with 178 passing yards, 7.7 yards per attempt, and zero touchdowns with one interception. Newton finished with 47 rushing yards with one touchdown, which made up most of his production. Some would argue the coaches benched Newton for P.J. Walker, but Matt Rhule claims they’ll continue to use Walker and Newton. With Newton, we’re relying on rushing production at this point. However, he’s droppable in 1QB formats. The Panthers face Buffalo, Tampa, New Orleans, and Tampa again over the next four weeks.

Ryan Tannehill saved his day with 29 rushing yards and one touchdown to finish as QB16 before Monday night. Since the Jaguars scored zero points, Tannehill didn’t need to air it out with 191 passing yards and no passing touchdowns. 

By Wednesday of last week, JaMycal Hasty looked like he could take over the backfield since the 49ers had a bunch of injured backs. However, Jeff Wilson Jr. led the backfield with 13 rushes for 56 rushing yards. Hasty caught all three targets for ten receiving yards but didn’t have a single rushing attempt. 

Although we noted D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard, we preferred Foreman due to the game script. Foreman garnered 13 carries for 47 rushing yards and one touchdown. In Week 14, Foreman totaled 48.1% of the team’s rushing attempts amongst the backs, plus Hilliard took 22.2% and Jeremy McNichols at 29.6%. We’ll need to monitor how the Titans use their backs with a negative game script. However, Foreman should provide touchdown-dependent RB3 value against the Steelers next week since he garners the most rushing opportunities. 

Kansas City blew out the Raiders 48-9, with Derrick Gore even factoring in with nine attempts for 66 rushing yards and one touchdown. However, Gore’s work came later in the contest. Thankfully, Darrel Williams hauled in all three targets for 31 receiving yards and one touchdown for a No. 19 finish in PPR leagues. Value Williams similar to Foreman, but more upside given the offense and Clyde Edwards-Helaire as his main competition. 

Trevor Lawrence struggled with four interceptions, 221 passing yards, and 5.5 yards per attempt. Lawrence spread the ball equally to Marvin Jones, Laquon Treadwell, and Laviska Shenault. However, we recommended Treadwell, who trailed Jones with four receptions for 68 receiving yards. Unfortunately, Shenault fell behind the two veterans with four receptions and 34 receiving yards. The takeaway – stay away from the Jaguars for fantasy purposes. Even James Robinson gave us a zero with four rushing yards. 

While we didn’t expect Elijah Moore to miss Week 14 against the Saints, it didn’t help Jamison Crowder at all. Like the Jaguars, the Jets remain a team to stay away from – lesson learned. Braxton Berrios led the Jets with six receptions on ten targets (23.8%) for 52 receiving yards. Crowder garnered six targets (14.3%) for three receptions and 19 receiving yards. The brutal production and efficiency by Zach Wilson keep the floor low after 202 passing yards and 4.8 YPA. 

In a 75 point game total, Marquez Valdes-Scantling dropped a crucial pass and lacked the fantasy production. Valdes-Scantling caught three of five targets for 20 receiving yards. Davante Adams dominated with ten receptions on 13 targets for 121 receiving yards and two scores. However, Allen Lazard finished second with six receptions on seven targets for 75 receiving yards and one touchdown. For reference, Lazard set season highs across the board, so that’s tough to predict. 

For the tight ends, Cole Kmet and Evan Engram didn’t produce, as yet another reminder to hammer the early tight end strategy in drafts. With most of the tight end position outside of the top four or five, it’s risky, and we’re hoping for touchdowns to boost their value. 

Week 15-17 Fantasy Football Playoff Sleepers

Tua Tagovailoa – Top Playoff Streaming Quarterback

  • Week 15 vs. NYJ
  • Week 16 at NO
  • Week 17 at TEN

The story for Tua Tagovailoa in 2021 involved passing volume with 38.6 (No. 7) Team Pass Plays Per Game. Over Tagovailoa’s past seven games from Week 6 and beyond, he finished as QB14 or better in five games with no worst than QB18. Since Week 11, Tagovailoa ranks sixth with 20.6 Expected Points Added (EPA), indicating high efficiency. 

In Week 11, Tagovailoa finished as QB12 with 18.5 fantasy points with 273 passing yards, 8.3 yards per attempt, two passing touchdowns, and one interception. The Jets allow the fifth-most fantasy points to the position, with the Titans allowing the 7th-most. Although the Saints present a hard matchup, fantasy managers could use Tagovailoa and mix in Jimmy Garoppolo or another streamer. 

Justin Fields 

  • Week 15 vs. MIN
  • Week 16 at SEA
  • Week 17 vs. NYG

The Vikings looked well on their way to a Thursday night victory. Then old man Ben Roethlisberger roared back to finish with 308 passing yards, 7.7 YPA, three touchdowns, and one interception for a QB5 finish. The Vikings allow the fourth-most fantasy points to the position at 19.1 per game. 

Let’s keep it simple with Justin Fields – rushing upside like Jalen Hurts. In three out of the past four games, Fields finished as QB5, QB10, and QB10. If we toss out Week 11 when Fields left the Ravens game with an injury, he has three straight QB1 performances. 

During those four weeks, Fields rushed for 245 yards for an average of 61.3 per game. Only Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen have more rushing yards since Week 8 amongst quarterbacks. Although the Seahawks (No. 23) and Giants (No. 29) rank in the bottom-10 in fantasy points to the position, Fields should provide QB1 numbers based on the rushing production. 

Jimmy Garoppolo 

  • Week 15 vs. ATL
  • Week 16 at TEN
  • Week 17 vs. HOU

As much as anyone, including myself, hoped for Trey Lance to take over with Lance’s rushing abilities, the handsome one in Jimmy Garoppolo says not so fast. Over the past two weeks, Garoppolo finished QB 13 and QB12 with 297.5 passing yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. 

With the low passing volume, evidenced by the 30.8 (No. 27) Team Pass Plays Per Game, Garoppolo relied on efficiency. On the season, Garoppolo ranks sixth with 7.8 Adjusted Yards Per Attempt with a +5.6 (No. 7) Production Premium. Outside of the Texans, Garoppolo faces the Falcons, who allow the second-most, and the Titans allowing the seventh-most fantasy points. However, we know the Texans’ defense typically gets run upon, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to backs. The Texans give up the fifth-most net yards per attempt at 6.9 behind the Jaguars, so Garoppolo shouldn’t have a problem passing on them in Week 17. 

D’Onta Foreman 

  • Week 15 at PIT
  • Week 16 vs. SF
  • Week 17 vs. MIA

In Week 15, the Steelers present the friendliest matchup allowing the 7th-most fantasy points to the opposing running backs. During Week 12 and 14, Foreman led the Titans’ backs with 32 carries for 156 rushing yards. Dontrell Hilliard finished close behind, with an efficient 144 rushing yards on 18 attempts. 

With Jeremy McNichols back in the fold, the three backs split the snap shares evenly. However, in those two games, Foreman looks like the lead rusher with a 55.2% rush share plus 2.7 yards before contact and 2.2 yards after. It’s likely due to a one-game sample, but Hilliard’s 3.4 yards before and 4.6 yards after stood out too in Week 12 and 14. 

Since Foreman appears like the lead rusher, he should garner the most opportunities with Hilliard and McNichols splitting the hurry-up offense or passing downs role. Overall, Foreman remains an RB3 or flex play that’s touchdown dependent unless there’s a positive game script. 

Jordan Howard & Boston Scott

  • Week 15 vs. WAS
  • Week 16 vs. NYG
  • Week 17at WAS

We have mixed reports on Miles Sanders, which impacts the viability of Jordan Howard and Boston Scott. Sanders, Howard, and Jalen Hurts put in limited practices on Wednesday.

However, some injury analysts expressed concerns about Sander’s ankle injury. We’ll want to monitor the practice reports for the Eagles in the coming days. Granted, it’s the Jets, but Sanders smashed in Week 13 for 24 carries, three receptions, and 142 total yards. In Week 13, Boston Scott remained active yet dealt with an illness, so he didn’t log a single touch. Meanwhile, rookie Kenneth Gainwell played as the second Eagles back with 17 opportunities and 87 total yards with one touchdown.

With Howard possibly returning in Week 15, plus Scott appears fine, Miles Sanders should remain the lead back for Philadelphia. Stash and hold Howard and Scott in case the injury for Sanders gets worse since the Eagles showed the willingness to run the ball.

In Week 1-7, the Eagles running backs totaled 96 rushing attempts and 444 rushing yards, with Boston Scott boasting the only positive EPA at 0.2. Gainwell had a -1.7 EPA and Sanders with a -8.9 EPA. That averages to 13.7 rush attempts and 63.4 rushing yards per game. 

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Then from Week 8-14, their backs totaled 183 rushing attempts and 902 rushing yards, with Jordan Howard boasting the best EPA at 10.4. Interestingly, Scott sat at -6.8, Gainwell at -1, and Sanders at -2.4. However, they averaged 30.5 rush attempts and 150.3 rushing yards per game during that stretch of games. The Giants allow the sixth-most rushing yards to the position, but the WFT allows the second-fewest rushing yards. Overall, we’re trusting the focus on the run game and run blocking over the past six weeks.

Jets Running Backs

Assuming Michael Carter doesn’t return, Tevin Coleman could have sleeper appeal with their upcoming schedule over the next two weeks. However, early reports indicate Carter should be ready to go.

  • Week 15 at MIA
  • Week 16 vs. JAC
  • Week 17 vs. TB

We’re mostly looking at Week 16 for the Jets’ backs when they’ll face the Jaguars. They allow the 11th-most fantasy points to the running back position on the season. Outside of Week 14 against the Titans, the Jaguars allowed 143.8 rushing yards the previous four weeks to the Colts, 49ers, Falcons, and Rams. 

Treat Coleman as a Jordan Howard light on a weaker offense. However, Coleman boasted 2.7 yards after contact and a 26% evasion rate in Week 12 and 13. For context, that’s a similar profile to Carter with 2.6 YAC and a 15% evasion rate. If fantasy managers make it to Week 16, fire up Carter or Coleman as RB3 or flex plays based on the matchup and remain cautious with the other two games. 

Darnell Mooney 

  • Week 15 vs. MIN
  • Week 16 at SEA
  • Week 17 vs. NYG

Before Week 14 against the Packers, Darnell Mooney‘s stock trended upwards. However, with Allen Robinson healthy, that dings Mooney’s opportunities. From Week 11-13, Mooney garnered a 25.4% target share (No. 16) and a 36.6% Air Yards Share (No. 13) for 16.1 fantasy points per game. Mooney’s target and Air Yards Share translated into the 13th-highest Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) of 0.637 sandwiched in between George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. 

Then in Week 15, Mooney still played on 93.1% of the snaps but only hauled in one reception for 19 receiving yards on five targets. In Robinson’s first game back, he matched Mooney with six targets, two receptions, and 14 receiving yards. 

The Vikings allow the most fantasy points to the receiver position, so fire up Mooney as a WR3 in Week 15. Although the Seahawks allow the 9th-fewest fantasy points, Brandin Cooks (11-8-101) and Nico Collins (10-5-69) fared well in Week 14. Then the Bears have the Giants in Week 17, who allow the fourth-most fantasy points. A reason for concern involves the drop in target share to 15.6% for Mooney in Week 14 against the Packers compared to Week 11-13. Look for Justin Fields and Mooney to provide the upside in the fantasy playoffs, assuming the rest of your roster involves players garnering more passing volume. 

DeVante Parker 

  • Week 15 vs. NYJ
  • Week 16 at NO
  • Week 17 at TEN

The theme with DeVante Parker involves injuries. In five games before Week 13, Parker averaged 8.6 targets, five receptions, and 65.4 receiving yards. We love the passing volume for the Dolphins, but Jaylen Waddle’s role increased in recent weeks. Then in Week 13, it seems they eased Parker back in with a 69.6% snap share and 32 routes. However, Parker hauled in all five targets for 62 receiving yards.

Parker faces two top-10 matchups in the Saints (No. 9) and Titans (No. 2) in fantasy points allowed. Although the Jets only allowed 21 fantasy points (11th-fewest), there’s a likelihood that Parker remains efficient like in Week 13 as a WR3 with WR2 upside. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown 

  • Week 15 vs. ARI
  • Week 16 at ATL
  • Week 17 at SEA

The Lions have looked for a productive receiver all season only to realize they left him hanging in Week 7. From Week 4-6, Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 7.7 targets, six receptions, and 53.7 receiving yards per game with two top-36 performances. 

Then over the past two weeks, St. Brown garnered 12 targets in back-to-back games and hauled in 18 receptions and 159 receiving yards. In Week 13-14, St. Brown earned a 31.6% target share (No. 10) with a 24% Air Yards Share aligning with the 6.1 aDOT. St. Brown produced efficiently with a 1.089 Receiver Air Yards Conversion Rate (RACR) with a 0.642 Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR). 

Over the past two games, St. Brown ranks 10th with a 31% Target Rate and 35th with a 2.06 Yards Per Route Run. Outside of the Falcons allowing the sixth-most fantasy points, the Cardinals (No. 14) and Seahawks (7th-fewest) present average matchups. Assuming a negative game script in all those games, hopefully, Goff continues to feed St. Brown targets. 

Proceed With Caution – Sleeper Tight Ends

It’s hard to find any reliable streamers for the next three weeks. Sure, streamers don’t typically involve reliability, but it seemed that way for the position on the Washington Football Team in Logan Thomas and Ricky Seals-Jones. However, in Seals-Jones’ first game back and Thomas done for the year, John Bates led the WFT in snaps and routes against the Cowboys.

  • Week 15 at PHI
  • Week 16 at DAL
  • Week 17 vs. PHI

If, and it’s a big if, Seals-Jones garners the full-time role with the snap and route share, he should smash against the Eagles given the way they give up points to the position. 

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John Bates profiles more like their blocking tight end, but we would feel more confident in Ricky Seals-Jones if we could assume a full-time role. After six straight weeks with solid TE1 type production, Evan Engram and Ryan Griffin didn’t produce well. However, that likely relates to their respective team’s offensive struggles. Seals-Jones remains a deep-league desperation play based on the matchup, but the Week 14 usage concerns us. 

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Browns Tight Ends

We can’t pinpoint which Browns tight end will be active in Week 15 with the injuries and COVID-19 news, but they have friendly matchups. 

  • Week 15 vs. LV
  • Week 16 at GB
  • Week 17 at PIT

Outside of Week 17 against the Steelers, the Raiders allow the ninth-most, and the Packers allow the third-most fantasy points to the position. David Njoku missed Week 14 on the reserve COVID-19 list, and Harrison Bryant missed because of an ankle injury. Austin Hooper hauled in five of six targets for 30 receiving yards and one touchdown against the Ravens in Week 14. Unfortunately, Hooper also landed on the COVID-19 list, joining several other Browns players. 

With their game on Saturday, we’re possibly looking at any of their tight-end options for Week 16. Currently, Harrison Bryant remains the only fantasy viable option. However, he hasn’t garnered more than four targets in any game this season back in Week 2. Proceed with caution if you’re desperate to use Bryant, as we prefer Njoku or Hooper when active as deep-league streamers. 

Corbin Young
Corbin is passionate about fantasy baseball and football. He loves diving into and learning about advanced metrics. Corbin is a Mariners and Seahawks fan living in the Pacific Northwest. Corbin's other hobbies are lifting weights, cooking, and listening to fantasy sports podcasts.
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