As part of our 2020 Fantasy Football Draft Kit here at FantasyData, we have created a custom strength of schedule projection model with in-depth analysis to help you in your quest for a championship title. Strength of schedule (SOS) is a tool I have used ever since I started playing fantasy as a part of draft preparation. This, along with personal rankings and ADP are cornerstones of conducting a solid draft. One of the best parts about using SOS is being able to compare two players you have ranked pretty much identically with similar ADPs to see which one might have a slight edge with an easier schedule, especially in the final quarter of the fantasy season (Weeks 13-16) when wins matter the most.
Method of Projection and Numbers to Know
There are a few different ways people project SOS for an upcoming fantasy season. The way I prefer to do this is by using a recent sample of the last two seasons’ fantasy points allowed ranks and points per game (PPG) allowed. I compare these side-by-side to find an average that I am happy with and use that for the upcoming season to determine where a team could potentially rank against a position in fantasy points allowed. It’s a fairly simple method, but in doing this, I have found that most teams don’t have a drastic change in fantasy points allowed from one season to the next. To back that up, here are some key numbers worth knowing before we dive into this more:
Across the league, the average amount of movement for teams between the last two seasons when it comes to fantasy points allowed to wideouts was 9.3 spots and 3.6 PPG. As with the other positions, however, you see a larger gap between the top and bottom ranks with the teams ranking around average and just above or below average offering much less variance. For example, the Saints have allowed the most points to WRs over the last two seasons on average at 28.05 PPG. If you moved them from the top the average 9.3 spots to rank ninth, they would have allowed 24.1 PPG, which is a difference of about four points, slightly above the average. If you take the Raiders, however, who are ranked ninth at 24.1 PPG and move them down nine spots to 18th, they would have still allowed 22.4 PPG, a difference of just 1.7 PPG. So basically, unless a team has a major jump above the average 9.3 spots from top to bottom or vice versa, there really isn’t that much variance from year-to-year, and only five teams moved more than double the league average between the last two seasons.
Similar to every position in the league, we haven’t seen a ton of movement over the last two years amongst the teams that we have projected to rank top five in most fantasy points allowed to WRs this season. Of the teams in the top five, only one (Miami) moved more than the league average of 9.3 spots, and it was in the positive direction for points allowed as they went from ranking 19th in 2018 (23 PPG) to second in 2019 (29 PPG). This consistency is actually maintained all the way through the top 10 in our projections, as only two teams moved more than average with the other being the Giants who went from 26th in 2018 (20.9 PPG) to fourth in 2019 (27.4 PPG), another move in the positive direction. We also had only three teams within the top ten move more than four PPG between the 2018-2019 seasons.
We see more variance at the bottom of the list here at WR compared to the top and not just at the position, but across all positions in general. Of the teams we have projected in the bottom five for least fantasy points allowed to wideouts, three of them moved more than the average 9.3 spots between 2018-2019 and six teams in the bottom 10 made moves above the average as well. The only thing that makes me feel fairly comfortable about keeping all of these teams ranked near the bottom is that only four of them allowed more points in 2019 than they did in 2018 and two of those teams (the Colts and Vikings) were jumps so big (19 spots and 21 spots, respectively) that regression to the mean could be in line.
Now that we have gotten some of the technical stuff out of the way, let’s take a look at the best and worst schedules this season for wideouts!
Top Five Easiest Strength of Schedule for WR: Full Season
1. Carolina Panthers
One thing you will quickly learn if you’ve read through all of these strength of schedule articles is that you want to load up on as many NFC South players as possible. The Panthers WR corps joins Teddy Bridgewater in having the easiest overall SOS at their respective positions and a nearly identical average points allowed rank. The wideouts here could get hot early with two stellar matchups to start the season as well as four of their first five being against teams who rank above average in points allowed. There’s not really much sugar coating in that Week 3 road game against the Chargers who went from ranking 25th in 2018 to 29th in 2019. The same could be said for the Week 6 matchup against Chicago who went from 23rd in 2018 to 28th in 2019, but at least that is a home game for the Panthers. Their next tough matchup comes in Week 9 against the Chiefs who made one of the biggest jumps of any team between 2018-2019 and in a negative direction, nonetheless. They ranked ninth in 2018 allowing 24.2 PPG then jumped all the way to 30th in 2019 at just 16.6 PPG, a move of 21 spots, and 7.6 PPG. The fact that the game will also be held in Kansas City makes matters worse. The Week 13 bye is incredibly inconvenient for fantasy owners as it could be a make or break matchup to get you into the playoffs as well. Their matchups between Weeks 14-16 aren’t terrible aside from the fact that two are on the road and there could be some nasty weather at Green Bay or Washington as well. While a lot of this season will rely on new QB Teddy Bridgewater being able to air it out with some success, D.J. Moore and crew are set up to succeed with this schedule.
2. New Orleans Saints
The Saints have again been gifted a great schedule for their wideouts to succeed this season. The only bad matchup before their Week 6 bye will be against the Chargers, but at least they get that one at home. Playing both at Chicago and Denver could offer some tough sledding and the team gets three straight road games between Weeks 12-14 as you get ready for a playoff push. Luckily, the Falcons and Eagles are both very generous matchups on the road. Playing the Chiefs and Vikings in the comfort of the Superdome in the heart of the fantasy playoffs could offer better-than-expected results. As mentioned before, those are two of the teams that saw the largest jump in points allowed between the last two seasons and the combination of some potential regression to the mean paired with them both being on the road could bode well for Saints pass catchers. Aside from being one of the most talented wideouts in the league, Michael Thomas will be ready to rock as a lock and loaded top-five wideout in fantasy this season with this schedule.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The difficulty of the Bucs schedules mirrors that of the Panthers schedule where we get a chance to start hot with two solid matchups before they hit an early rough patch. Weeks 3-5 at Denver, vs. LAC, and at Chicago could be a real burden, especially with two of those games being on the road. The mid-season lightens up greatly with five-straight games against opponents who rank inside the top 12. Their last stretch of tougher matchups all come with home-field advantage on their side to hopefully lighten the load, and again we get the Chiefs and Vikings in the mix here who could wind up closer to average opponents. Like the Panthers, the Bucs also get that inconvenient Week 13 bye, but their fantasy season winds down with a solid matchup at home against what could be a very vulnerable Lions defense. Aside from offering top-end talent, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans should be set up to feast this season with this schedule.
4. Chicago Bears
The Bears are the only non-NFC South team inside the top five for the easiest SOS at WR this season. They get five of their first six matchups against teams who rank inside the top 10 for most fantasy points allowed. The only tough matchup in that opening stretch comes against the Colts, but they are also one of the few teams who made a major jump between the last two seasons. They went from ranking 29th in 2018 (18 PPG) to 10th (24 PPG) last season. So, while I think there is a chance they get back closer to league average, there is also the very real chance that they stay a top 10 matchup as well, making that a potentially better than advertised matchup. Their next two matchups against tougher opponents are both against the Vikings who are in the same boat as the Colts, making those less intimidating than their rank implies. That leaves only their Week 16 matchup on the road against the Jags their only potentially tough spot, but wouldn’t you know it, they too went from ranking 31st (16.2 PPG) in 2018 to 20th (20.5 PPG) between the last two seasons. So there is a lot of fluidity in the true strength of their tougher opponents this season. The last takeaway from their schedule is that in Weeks 15-16, two of the most important weeks of the fantasy season, you won’t have to deal with the blustery Chicago weather as they will be at Minnesota in a dome and at Jacksonville. It’s really a delight to see this easy of a schedule for the Bears’ wideouts, though the bigger question as to whether or not they can succeed will lay directly in the hands of who is throwing to them from under center.
5. Atlanta Falcons
Last visit to the NFC South here as the Falcons round out the top five. Their schedule is built a little differently than that of the Panthers, Saints, and Bucs, however, as they get no favors off the bat. A home game against Seattle to kick off the season at least offers an average matchup, but a road game against Dallas who has steadily ranked 27th in each of the last two seasons and a game against the Bears top-notch defense is less than ideal. Perhaps an early buy-low window could open here for Julio Jones and crew as they will get ready for things to lighten up a ton. After the first quarter of the season, the Falcons get seven of their next 10 matchups against teams who will rank inside the top 10 for most fantasy points allowed to wideouts. Their schedule after their Week 10 bye is especially appealing with half of their matchups being against the Saints and Bucs who are both top three in points allowed. The Raiders have trended towards allowing more fantasy points between the last two seasons moving from 14th in 2018 to eighth last season. There isn’t much to like about road matchups against both the Chargers and Chiefs in two of the most important weeks of the fantasy season, but perhaps we can get some shootout potential at least with the Chiefs.
Remaining WR Corps with an Above-Average SOS
- Dallas Cowboys: Average PA Rank – 14.3
- Green Bay Packers: Average PA Rank – 14.4
- Arizona Cardinals: Average PA Rank – 14.4
- San Francisco 49ers: Average PA Rank – 14.6
- Los Angeles Rams: Average PA Rank – 14.7
- Minnesota Vikings: Average PA Rank – 14.8
- Washington Redskins: Average PA Rank – 14.9
Top Five Toughest Strength of Schedule for WR: Full Season
28. New York Jets
The Jets’ difficult schedule at WR unsurprisingly matches that of QB Sam Darnold who has the fourth-toughest SOS for QBs. Playing Buffalo twice a season is a killer for this team and playing on the road against them is definitely not the way you would prefer to start your season. Week 2 vs. SF could be much more difficult than advertised here as well as they made a huge jump from ranking 4th in 2018 (26.3 PPG) all the way to 24th (19.7 PPG) last season. There’s a real chance their trend towards allowing fewer points continues, but if they do regress slightly, that would be a welcomed sight for the Jets wideouts. You really have to wait until their bye sandwich in Weeks 10 and 12 against the Dolphins to get matchups you can get excited about. They also get a plus matchup at home against the Raiders who will be coming into their second road game in a row at that point in Week 13. Their schedule through the fantasy playoffs progressively gets tougher and two of their three games between Weeks 14-16 being on the road is less than ideal. The silver lining to this schedule I guess is that they only face the Pats once in the fantasy season this year.
29. Miami Dolphins
The opening three-game stretch of the season for the Dolphins is literally as tough as it could possibly be. They’ll face the bottom three teams in fantasy points allowed to wideouts with two of those three being on the road. Like the Jets, they really won’t get a break until their bye sandwich against the Jets who should live inside the top five for most points allowed this season. Their only other matchup this season against a team that ranks inside the top 10 is on the road against the Raiders in Week 16. There are some who believe that DeVante Parker’s breakout that finally happened last season could be a sign of more to come. I think with what will likely be shaky QB play with the potential of them rotating between Ryan Fitzpatrick and rookie Tua Tagovailoa, an incredibly difficult schedule, and the likelihood of their running game potentially not ranking worst in the league this season could all be roadblocks. After that brutal first three weeks though, it could be worth buying super low on this passing game as that portion of their schedule is pretty much as bad as it gets.
30. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers schedule ranks identical to that of the Dolphins but is structured in a very different way. We see the beginning of their season really isn’t that daunting with two matchups against teams that rank top 10 in most points allowed and matchups against the Texans and Titans being just average opponents. Things get much more difficult mid-season right around their Week 8 bye. They get two road games surrounding their bye against two teams who rank in the bottom five for points allowed. The Cowboys have consistently held their rank the last two seasons while the Ravens actually went from ranking 32nd (15.9 PPG) in 2018 to 18th (21.3 PPG) last season. The rest of the back half of the schedule remains tough for JuJu and crew with the Redskins being their only potentially soft matchup. We are used to seeing the Bengals being amongst the most generous defenses to QB and RB in fantasy, but at WR, they have pretty consistently been able to be right around average. The fantasy playoff schedule kicks off with a daunting road game at Buffalo, another road trip but this time to Cincinnati, and a final home game against the Colts in Week 16. We know the type of volume this offense is capable of putting up with Ben Roethlisberger under center and JuJu Smith-Schuster was anticipated by some to lead the league in receiving yards last year before their season went south in a hurry. So, despite this awful schedule, I think there is still some value in this passing game should they stay healthy.
31. Tennessee Titans
The bottom two teams in SOS at WR are identical to those at QB with the Titans and Texans. The Titans get a rough start to the season as they will have to wait until a Week 6 tilt against the Texans just to face an average opponent when it comes to fantasy points allowed to wideouts. We have discussed however the fluidity in the ranks of both the Jags and Vikings, so there could be hope in those matchups. The Titans also get the benefit of playing at home for four of their first six games. The back half of their season is more of the same with an average-at-best matchup against the Bengals in Week 8 before a string of below-average matchups. Two games against the Colts could be defining moments for how easy or tough the back half of this schedule could be. A.J. Brown was only able to manage 5.5 points and 7.5 points against them just last season. Week 14 against Jacksonville is potentially not as tough as advertised as Brown put up a 4/135/1 line against them at the end of last season. The team saves their best matchups for when it really counts with their Week 15 matchup against the Lions who have allowed an average of 24.9 PPG to wideouts over the last two seasons and a Week 16 road tilt against the Packers who were tougher than expected last season ranking 22nd (20.3 PPG) but allowed the fifth-most PPG in 2018 at 26.2 PPG. We will really get a chance to see what second-year wideout A.J. Brown is worth this season and if Ryan Tannehill’s success last season was more than just a string of great performances against weak opponents.
32. Houston Texans
With DeAndre Hopkins now a member of the Cardinals, we can only wonder who is going to lead this WR corps this season, and with the worst average points-allowed rank, you can’t help but feel for them and Deshaun Watson. Like the Titans above, the Texans will have to wait until their Week 6 matchup just for a taste of an average defense when it comes to fantasy points allowed to wideouts. They’ll get their second-best matchup of the season just before their bye at home against the Packers, but as mentioned above as well, that team is tough to really peg how generous they will be to this position in 2020. The Texans come out of their bye with three of their next four games on the road and only one of them against a generous defense. The final quarter of their fantasy schedule will really come down to how well they play against the Colts with matchups against them in both Weeks 13 and 15. There will be a lot to process with this receiving corps in general through the preseason, but keeping in mind that they also have the toughest schedule for WRs will be worth noting on draft day.
Remaining WR Corps with a Below-Average SOS
- Baltimore Ravens: Average PA Rank – 19.4
- Cincinnati Bengals: Average PA Rank – 19.3
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Average PA Rank – 18.4
- Indianapolis Colts: Average PA Rank – 18.3
Best Receiving Corps for a Fantasy Playoff Push: Weeks 13-16
1. Green Bay Packers
While the Packers overall SOS for the season ranks 7th, even that isn’t as sweet as the beauty they have lined up here in the most important stretch of the season for fantasy gamers. It starts off at home against the Eagles in Week 13 who have consistently had one of the worst defenses in the league when it comes to fantasy points allowed to wideouts over the last two seasons ranking third in each season and allowing 27.4 and 27.5 PPG, respectively. There’s hope for them getting to average at best potentially this season with the signing of Darius Slay. Their only road game in this stretch is in the fantasy-friendly confines of Ford Field in Detroit. Adams has scored five TDs in his last four games at Detroit. The Pack will return home for cushy matchups against the Panthers in Week 15 whom Adams lit up for 7/118 last season. Their final game of the fantasy season will be at home again against the Titans who have consistently been right about average the last two seasons. Should this team not completely meltdown before this point given the obvious post-draft tension, and as long as the weather isn’t completely miserable in Green Bay, this is a pretty nice setup.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
We get another soft end of season schedule here for another elite WR as Tyreek Hill and the Chiefs could surge through the final quarter. Their final stretch starts off at home against their division rival, the Broncos, a team that Tyreek lit up for three TDs in two matchups last season. They get back-to-back road games against teams in the top five with Miami and New Orleans. Then the Chiefs will get a home-field advantage against the dome-dwelling Falcons for the fantasy championship round. The Falcons made a small step in the right direction last season ranking 13th (22.4 PPG) against wideouts after ranking eighth (24.8 PPG) in 2018. So even in the toughest matchup on paper here, there is a great chance for the Chief’s receiver corps to shred through the fantasy playoffs.
3. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have an identical regular-season SOS as the Packers, ranking eighth-best this season. Where we find the slight edge is that the Packers SOS for the playoffs is marginally better. The Cardinals do also get to play at home for three of these games, however, there is more fluidity in the true strength of their opponents. For all their miscues as a team last season, the Rams actually improved when it came to fantasy points allowed to wideouts. They finished 2019 ranking 23rd (20 PPG) after allowing the 11th-most in 2018 at 24 PPG. The Cards only road game here will be Week 14 against the Giants who saw the biggest swing in fantasy points allowed to wideouts of any team in the league last season. The G-Men went from ranking 26th in 2018 at just 20.9 PPG to fourth in 2019 at 27.4 PPG. That is an abnormal swing and makes it harder to peg exactly where they will land this season. Week 15 gives the Cardinals another potentially soft NFC East opponent against the Eagles who gave up 21 TDs to wideouts last season — tied for third-most in the league. Week 16 is again a potentially tougher than advertised matchup against the 49ers, but Kyler Murray was able to string together two top 10 fantasy QB performances against them last season, so who knows.
4. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks round out this list just below their division rival, the Cardinals. The Seahawks similarly get three home games for this final stretch and even face two of the same teams with the Rams and Giants. The difference here will come down to a matchup against the Jets who will be traveling across the country for their Week 14 matchup and a road game against the Redskins. Both of these teams are trending in a negative direction when it comes to fantasy points allowed to wideouts. The Jets were able to improve to a still-friendly seventh-place ranking last season after allowing the second-most points to wideouts in 2018, a difference of 3.6 PPG. The Redskins moved from 10th in 2018 to 16th last season, a PPG difference of just two points. We all know the stories by now of how Russell Wilson likes to pour it on towards the end of the season. If this remains true this year, DK Metcalf and company could be in for a treat with this schedule.
Worst Receiving Corps for a Fantasy Playoff Push: Weeks 13-16
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags just missed out on our list for toughest SOS overall this season ranking eighth-worst, but they couldn’t avoid this stretch of bum matchups when the games really count. Their first game through this stretch is against the Vikes who we know could be kind of an enigma in fantasy points allowed to wideouts after they got rid of both Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes after their pitiful performances last season. The matchup against the Titans is their best chance for success here most likely as that is consistently an average matchup over the last two seasons. Their two toughest matchups through this stretch are unfortunately found in their final two games of the season. The Jags schedule is fairly average for wideouts throughout most of the season until about Week 10. After that, the Titans are the only team that ranks better than 20th. If you grab D.J. Chark or find success in rookie Laviska Shenault Jr., you may want to consider flipping them via trade before your league’s trade deadline as they may not be much use to you beyond Week 10.
2. Denver Broncos
We have seen this across the other positions that the Broncos have a pretty solid schedule this season right up until you get to the fantasy playoffs. Then it all goes to hell. Three road games do them no favors and the only home game being against the Bills who allow the absolute least fantasy points is a real bummer. The division rivalry game against KC could have some wiggle room as to where they will rank against wideouts, though the prospects of it being at Arrowhead Stadium are not good. Even their one good matchup against Carolina could slightly disappoint as that team is trending towards allowing fewer fantasy points going from sixth in 2018 to 13th in 2019. The Broncos get a cupcake matchup in Week 12 against the Saints, but similar to the Jags wideouts, you may want to consider trading these guys around your trade deadline because they probably won’t help you win a championship.
3. Houston Texans
We saw the Texans wideouts have the worst full-season schedule so there is no reason to believe their schedule during the playoffs would be any different. As mentioned above, it will really come down to how well they can perform against the Colts this season as to whether or not they will be useful to you through this important stretch. As I mentioned in our article covering the SOS for QBs this season, Deshaun Watson had finishes of QB17 and QB10 against the Colts last season, giving mixed results. Hopkins managed receiving lines of 9/106/1 (WR3) and 6/94/2 (WR4) against the Colts last season, but as we know, he is gone and there is no telling who will be the leading receiver on the team come season’s end. Home/road splits will also be worth watching as the Texans haven’t exactly crushed in their own home recently. Before really weighing the SOS here too much though, we need to first get a better idea of what this depth chart will even look like and who will still be standing come Weeks 13-16.
