Using Advanced Data to Find WR Values
Back when fantasy football was first gaining popularity, football fans relied on basic, dated stats that were readily available everywhere. It’s been in the last handful of years that we’ve seen deeper analytics-driven data become available and that has really changed the hobby.
Some of these advanced efficiency metrics can be confusing to the average fan but there’s no denying their usefulness and how the numbers directly correlate to predictive success. Fantasy managers willing to dedicate a little effort into studying these numbers can gain a huge edge over their competition.
No position has been affected more by advanced metrics than wide receivers, who have grown to become the most consistent and highest-scoring options in many leagues. Using FantayData’s advanced WR metrics, here are some interesting takeaways as we wind down the first half of the 2020 fantasy season.
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Cole Beasley (Buffalo Bills) – It took another big outing, an 11-catch, 112-yard drubbing of the Jets, for people to finally open up to just how good Cole Beasley has been this season for the Bills. Beasley enters Week 8 as the WR16 in PPR formats and has scored 11-plus PPR points in each of Buffalo’s past six games. And these aren’t just hollow stats, Beasley is legitimately doing some impressive things. He ranks 15th with 2.35 yards per route run and has looked extremely impressive in contested-catch situations. Beasley is tied for 10th in the NFL with 11 contested targets but he leads the league in contested-catch rate (8-of-11 for 72.7%) for all players with 10 or more contested targets. We can’t expect 12 targets each week, but Beasley has been one of the most consistent and underrated wideouts in football.
A.J. Green (Cincinnati Bengals) – After a putrid start, Green is trending in the right direction following consecutive games with 15+ PPR points. Green actually ranks second in the NFL with 771 air yards and 10th with 58 targets but efficiency has not been an ally. Among qualified NFL wideouts, Green is next to last with a paltry 1.01 fantasy points per target average. Only Chris Hogan has been worse and other underachievers like T.Y. Hilton (1.19), Demarcus Robinson (1.2), and N’Keal Harry (1.26). Despite the lack of early effectiveness, Green is trending in the right direction and may yet become a decent WR3 down the stretch.
Calvin Ridley (Atlanta Falcons) – Ridley has surpassed Julio Jones as Atlanta’s No. 1 receiver. Ridley has scored a TD or surpassed 100 receiving yards in all but one of the Falcons’ contests and ranks third overall in fantasy points. Not only has Ridley dominated in traditional numbers, but he’s also making a big showing in advanced metrics as well. Ridley leads all WRs in red-zone targets (12), is tied for the league lead in end-zone targets (9), and is also making plenty of plays downfield. He also ranks first in total air yards (922) and air yards per game (131.7).
Deebo Samuel (San Francisco 49ers) – After missing the first three games of the season, Deebo Samuel was starting to look like the dynamic athlete that he flashed in 2019. Samuel posted consecutive games with 5+ receptions and 65 receiving yards but was really excelling after the catch. Samuel ranks 1st with 13.5 yards after catch per reception, which means he’s breaking tackles and again showcasing his ability to make short catches into big gainers. Unfortunately, just when Samuel was starting to showcase that elite play-making ability, he injured his hamstring against New England and is now expected to miss a week or two. While not ideal, having Samuel back and healthy for the fantasy playoffs trumps mid-season results, so now is a good time to throw out trade feelers for a player who can be a real difference-maker down the stretch.
Golden Tate (New York Giants) – Tate has been one of the biggest disappointments of the 2020 football season. Despite missing just one game, Tate enters Week 8 as the WR78 in PPR scoring. He’s scored fewer fantasy points than Gabriel Davis, Braxton Berrios, and Alan Lazard, who has only played three games. And most of the blame is on Tate himself, not Daniel Jones, who has actually been very accurate with his passes intended for Tate. Inefficiency and drops have way more to do with Tate’s struggles. In fact, Tate has the fourth-worst drop rate of any wide receiver.
| PLAYER | TGT | REC | YDS | TD | DROP | DROP% |
| Demarcus Robinson | 22 | 14 | 123 | 0 | 4 | 18.2 % |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 34 | 15 | 242 | 1 | 6 | 17.6 % |
| Kendrick Bourne | 30 | 17 | 271 | 1 | 4 | 13.3 % |
| Golden Tate | 26 | 20 | 195 | 1 | 3 | 11.5 % |
| Chris Conley | 26 | 15 | 224 | 1 | 3 | 11.5 % |
| D.J. Moore | 53 | 31 | 567 | 3 | 6 | 11.3 % |
| Jerry Jeudy | 37 | 19 | 286 | 1 | 4 | 10.8 % |
| Kenny Golladay | 28 | 20 | 338 | 2 | 3 | 10.7 % |
| Nelson Agholor | 20 | 15 | 292 | 4 | 2 | 10.0 % |
| Gabriel Davis | 21 | 15 | 205 | 2 | 2 | 9.5 % |
Julian Edelman (New England Patriots) – Maybe it’s a good thing for Edelman to take a week or two off to heal his knee. The New England offense has been sputtering and Edleman simply isn’t getting it done. He ranks seventh-worst in True Catch Rate and has already dropped 3-of-39 targets (7.7%). 57% of Edelman’s production came in Week 2 and he has not topped 35 yards since. Edelman also hasn’t scored a touchdown all-season or secured more than 3 receptions since that blowup game against Seattle’s pathetic secondary. The Patriots are scuffling badly and are a team to avoid at the moment, but Edelman certainly could use a little ‘get right’ time off.
Nelson Agholor (Las Vegas Raiders) – Agholor is much-reviled by most long-time fantasy players, but he’s actually playing pretty well for an Oakland offense that enters Week 8 seventh in passing. Drops aside, Agholor had a huge effort against a solid Tampa defense last week, snagging 5-of-9 targets and catching another touchdown–his third consecutive game in which he’s found the end-zone. Agholor has played over 80% of the team’s snaps since Week 3 and is a lock to stay in the lineup as long as Bryan Edwards (ankle) remains out. Even if Edwards returns, Agholor has played well enough to remain a big part of Oakland’s offense. Derek Carr has had a lot of success when targeting Agholor, who ranks third among all wideout with a 14.6 yards per target average. He also ranks second, behind only Chase Claypool (3.68), in fantasy points per targets (3.41). Agholor looks much improved from his disappointing stint in Philadelphia and fantasy managers would do wise to plug him into their lineups while the going is good.
Darnell Mooney (Chicago Bears) – Like all Chicago pass-catchers, Mooney is being negatively impacted by the Bears’ poor quarterback play, but the fifth-round rookie has shown some promise. Mooney has recorded multiple receptions in each of Chicago’s seven games this season and topped five or more targets in five straight. Beyond the raw numbers, Mooney excels at getting open. He ranks 12th among all wideouts with 2.12 yards of target separation and is tied for sixth with a dozen contested targets. Mooney, who has played 63% of Chicago’s offensive snaps, is clearly the club’s No. 2 option behind Allen Robinson and with Robinson looking very questionable to play in Week 8 while he’s in the league’s concussion protocol, Mooney has some WR3 appeal against a shaky New Orleans secondary.
