Bradley Stalder Fantasy Rankings vs. ECR
Every year FantasyPros hosts a Fantasy Football Rankings Accuracy contest with over 170 of the industry’s top writers and experts. The scoring is fierce and requires experts to perfectly predict the order in which Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, and Tight Ends will rank at the end of every NFL Week. Last year was my first year entering the contest on behave of FantasyData. It was difficult out of the gate, and my cumulative score for 2021 was just pretty good, but it was the back half of the season that everyone was excited about. Down the final stretch of the season, I started to hit stride.
- Week 14 – 2nd overall in accuracy, 1st in QB
- Week 16 – 10th overall in accuracy, 1st in QB
- Week 17 – 1st overall in accuracy, 6th in QB, 1st in TE
Last year’s experience with the FantasyPros Accuracy Rankings Weekly Contest taught me many lessons in humility, checking my work, changing my process numerous times, challenging my player takes, and finally finding success. Ultimately, I finished with four top-10 weekly finishes, three of which came in the final four weeks of the 17-week contest. I hope to start strong in 2022.
I also take part in advising FantasyData’s weekly Rankings. I think they are a great resource for anyone looking to win their league along with their player projections and advanced metrics.
Follow me on my journey this year as I highlight a few players I want to be higher or lower than consensus each week.
Higher Rank QB
Jameis Winston – Looking at the Weekly QB finishes vs. ATL over his career, Jameis Winston has smashed. Only once since 2016 has Winston finished outside the top-16, which was in his last start for the Buccaneers where he only threw the ball 24 times. Enter Winston in 2022, recovered from his ACL tear and clear eyesight a year removed from Lasik surgery, with a healthy Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry who commanded 24.7% of targets last season, rookie 1st round pick Chris Olave, gadget player Taysom Hill, and Alvin Kamara. The Falcons have many questions on defense, and with the many offensive weapons surrounding Winston, this is a smash spot. By Sunday, Winston will be QB11-13 in my rankings.
Winston’s ECR is QB16 as of Thursday Night Football.
Lower Rank QB
Aaron Rodgers– With fading Rodgers in Week 1, it comes down to three factors: 1) Missing Upside Weapons. The loss of Davante Adams is critical, but only days away from Week 1 the Packers also are probably without Robert Tonyan and may be missing Allen Lazard. Depending on receivers like Sammy Watkins, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs mitigates the access Rodgers has for massive fantasy nights. 2) Pace of play. The Packers were one of the slowest pace-of-play teams in the NFL. While Rodgers may be efficient, putting up a 250 yards-3 TD night barely flirts with a back-end QB1 ranking. 3) The effectiveness of the running game: Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are both expected to carry a large workload both running and receiving out of the backfield. If the running game is effective against Minnesota, Rodgers may not get the passing volume to meet this ECR. This high of an ECR is inflated from Rodgers’ two consecutive MVP seasons for real football. Rodgers will likely fall into the QB16-18 range by Sunday for my rankings.
Rodgers’ ECR is QB12 as of Thursday Night Football
Higher Rank RB
Jerick McKinnon– McKinnon has had two stretches of four and six games each over the last two seasons (including the playoffs) where he’s averaged 16+ ppr points per game. While Ronald Jones and Isiah Pacheco both made the team alongside the 30-year-old McKinnon, McKinnon’s role as pass-catcher and utility weapon in the Chiefs offense looks secure. Clyde Edwards-Helaire projects as the early down back, but we saw McKinnon handle double-digit carries in all three playoff games. The Chiefs trust the reliable veteran, whose ranking will be between RB45-49 by Sunday.
McKinnon’s ECR is RB59 as of Thursday Night Football.
Lower Rank RB
Chase Edmonds– Edmonds was the priority running back addition to the Dolphins this offseason, signing a 2-year, $12 million dollar deal. However, Edmonds is dealing with a groin injury which has limited his practice ahead of Week 1, most likely limiting his routes run. The addition of Tyreek Hill and his 25.1% target share to the Dolphins’ offense will keep Jaylen Waddle’s targets close to the line of scrimmage. Finishing with the 6th lowest Air Yards/Target and 11th shortest target distance last season, expect Waddle to gobble up many of Edmonds targets early in the season as Edmonds projects as the early-down back, spelled by Raheem Mostert. While there is optimism season-long for Edmonds, expect a slow start.
Edmonds’ ECR is RB23 as of Thursday Night Football.
Higher Rank WR
Marquise Brown– With DeAndre Hopkins suspended for the first six games, Rondale Moore nursing a sore hamstring, and Zach Ertz dealing with a calf injury, “Hollywood” Brown’s reunion with college quarterback Kyler Murray couldn’t come at a better time. Brown has commanded a 26% target share each of the last two seasons on the Baltimore Ravens, and with a clear pathway to opportunity in Week 1, the ECR market hasn’t reacted appropriately enough. When the dust settles, ECR may move Brown into the top-12 of WRs by Sunday afternoon. I’m already there.
Brown’s ECR is WR17 as of Thursday Night Football.
Lower Rank WR
Amari Cooper– There were eight instances during the 2019 season and five instances during the 2017 season where an Indianapolis Colts WR accumulated 70+ yards in a game. A total of thirteen times over a 32-game sample. That’s the Jacoby Brissett effect. Cooper only had four 70+ receiving yard contests in fifteen games in 2021. Cooper looks like an afterthought with a projected game script leaning heavily on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. He’ll be, at best, in the back-end WR4 range for my rankings this week.
Cooper’s ECR is WR33 as of Thursday Night Football.
Higher Rank TE
Gerald Everett– Everett quietly put up respectable efficiency stats with the Seattle Seahawks in 2021. Everett finished as TE13 and in fantasy points per target TE16 in target share despite finishing 21st among TEs in targets. Going from Russell Wilson to Justin Herbert can be debated as a lateral move, the Chargers’ pass rate in neutral game scripts and pace of play fall on the opposite side of the bell curve compared to the Seahawks. Additionally, Herbert, when targeting 35-year-old Jared Cook, did so at the 8th furthest distance among all TEs. Everett was 24th. Better offense. Better distance. Better TE! (That felt like a Papa John’s commercial). By Sunday, I’ll have Everett in the 12-14 range.
Everett’s ECR is TE17 as of Thursday Night Football.
Lower Rank TE
Hunter Henry– While Henry finished as the TE15 last season, he also finished with only the 18th-highest target share. The convergence of offseason storylines involving the Patriots’ dysfunctional offense and the re-emergence of Jonnu Smith point the arrow down on projected optimism for Henry to out-produce his TE12 ECR. There were seven weeks last season where Henry finished as a top-12 TE, however, five of these seven weeks were 11th or 12th overall. With both Jakobi Meyers and DeVante Parker commanding 20%+ target shares each of the last two seasons and with PFF projecting only 8% of targets per route for Henry this Sunday, the pie looks to be small enough to fade Hunter Henry.
Henry’s ECR is TE12 as of Thursday Night Football.
