DraftKings Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 1
Week 1 NFL DFS is finally here and with it comes the largest, healthiest slate we will have all season. Apart from a few last-minute question marks (looking at you, George Kittle!), all of the players we need on the main slate are healthy, active, and ready to pick up major usage roles after a preseason of mostly avoiding real game action. After a tasty appetizer of a Thursday night kickoff game where most of the stars put up big fantasy nights, if you’re like me you are now clamoring for the Sunday main slate. Let’s go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out at least one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
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Quarterback
Jalen Hurts ($6,800) will get a chance right away in Week 1 to avenge the worst fantasy game of his season from 2021. Last season, Hurts entered Week 8 on a seven-game streak of at least 21 fantasy points to start the year and traveled to Detroit, home of one of the worst (although GRITTIEST!) defenses in the league. He proceeded to lay an egg with only 11 fantasy points including zero passing or rushing touchdowns in a game where the Eagles scored 44 points. On Sunday, he travels to Detroit again. This time, it’s a whole new offensive scheme and opportunity for Hurts, whose salary is just far too low for the upside. Last year, Hurts ranked first among all quarterbacks with 784 rushing yards and 139 attempts. He also lapped the field with 10 rushing touchdowns, which should regress downward, but shows the Eagles are not afraid for him to call his own number at the goal line. With A.J. Brown joining a receiving crew that includes Alabama standout Devona Smith and Dallas Goedert, I expect a much more balanced rushing and passing attack than in 2021. Last year, Philadelphia ranked dead last with only 50% of their offensive plays going through the air. In 2021, Detroit allowed the 10th-most passing yards per game and gave up the fourth-most touchdowns to quarterbacks (31). Aiden Hutchinson will help, but he won’t be able to stop Hurts by himself.
Jameis Winston ($5,300) has a salary in Week 1 that is so low, that it is going to make it considerably difficult to keep him out of cash game lineups. Traveling to play in the racetrack that is Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Winston’s salary is the 21st highest among main slate quarterbacks. He has the same salary as Andy Dalton. He is lower than Mac Jones, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, and a whole host of other quarterbacks I don’t want anywhere near my cash games. Stocked with a cache of new and improved weapons (Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Jarvis Landry, and Micahel Thomas), Winston should be able to continue his career-long success against the hapless Falcons’ defense. In nine career games against them, he completes 67% of his passes and has torched them for 278 yards and 2.8 touchdowns per game. If we get even 250 yards and two scores from Winston on Sunday, he will clearly be worth the price of admission.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey ($8,500) is healthy to start this season and therefore almost a lock at this ludicrously low salary. Considering the fact that DraftKings is a full point-per-reception format and has bonuses for both 100 yards rushing and 100 yards receiving, McCaffrey has multiple paths to paying off this salary. In his five healthy games last season, McCaffrey averaged 23.6 fantasy points per game because of his uncanny combination of rushing and receiving ability. But he never once received any 100-yard bonus last year, so those scores could have been even higher had he hit one more hole or caught one more pass. The Cleveland Browns do represent a formidable front line for McCaffrey to have to break through, but no running back has a higher combination of rushing and receiving opportunities for their team. Volume alone should give McCaffrey what he needs to fly past 3x value at this salary.
Najee Harris ($6,400) will find a time at some point in the future where he comes off the field during the game, but his rookie season was certainly not that time and that streak looks to continue as the Steelers kick off against the Cincinnati Bengals. Harris played 934 snaps in 2021, which was 164 more snaps than any other running back in the league. His 94 targets also tied Austin Ekeler for the league lead among running backs. And Harris was only a handful of rush attempts behind Jonathan Taylor for the lead in that category. We can’t exactly call Harris the most efficient running back there ever was after one season, but that could be largely due to the throwing issues Ben Roethlisberger had on his way out. Harris saw the 13th-most stacked boxes when he ran last year, but the addition of Mitch Trubisky and George Pickens who can help get the ball downfield should help with that issue. For the amount of usage Harris should see in this first game against the AFC champions, his salary seems to be right where we need it to make a lot of things work in our cash lineups.
Dameon Pierce ($4,4800) and his rise in ADP over the last month makes me think of that line from Saving Private Ryan when the unit is discussing whether the mission is valid. “He better be worth it. He better go home and cure a disease, or invent a longer-lasting light bulb.” Considering all the hype Pierce has received over just a handful of preseason carries, you would think he is the second coming of Barry Sanders of Emmitt Smith. Chances are he will have nowhere near that level of production, but things certainly changed when the Texans released Marlon Mack. Pierce is now the unquestioned top running back in Houston, just sharing passing-down duties with Rex Burkhead. The volume he is likely to receive at $4,800 will make it tough to leave him out of lineups, but buyer beware here. He is, of course, a totally unproven commodity. The Texans are also -7.5 point underdogs in this first game, so it could quickly turn out to be a Burkhead-heavy, breakneck pace if the Colts have their way. But I still think 15 carries and 2-3 targets are a safe floor for Pierce.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson ($7,800) needs to come out on Sunday and deliver a strong counterpunch if he wants to take over the mantle of the NFL’s top wide receiver from Cooper Kupp. Kupp logged 13 catches, 128 yards, and a score on Thursday night so now it’s time to see what Jefferson will do in response. My opinion? He is going to absolutely go scorched earth on the Green Bay Packers in the marquee afternoon game. Jefferson already has back-to-back seasons of at least 1,500 receiving yards, and now they have installed an even friendlier passing offense under head coach Kevin O’Connell. Gone are the days when Mike Zimmer wanted to just establish the run all day long. This will be Kirk Cousins’ offense and I expect they come out slinging while needing to make a statement at home against Green Bay. In 2021, Jefferson led the league in air yards, was second in receiving yards, and was third in overall target share among all wide receivers. Jefferson’s 46% of his team’s air yards could be topped by no one, and he continues to be perhaps the most dangerous offensive weapon in football.
Michael Pittman ($5,500) is near the top of almost every fantasy analyst’s list of breakout candidates for 2022. Now tied to a more accurate and accomplished passer in Matt Ryan, Pittman looks to build on his strong 124-target, 1,087 receiving yard season. Against the Houston Texans is a perfect place to begin that campaign. Houston allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers last year despite only allowing the 15th-most receptions. That means opposing wide receivers are either 1) getting open for long bombs down the field, or 2) catching the ball with plenty of open space with which to work. You can count me as one of those that believe a major Pittman breakout is coming this season, and we will look back on this $5,500 salary and laugh at how it was $2,000+ too low. As the most reliable passing option the Colts have in this early going, he should have no problem smashing the Texans on the road in Week 1.
Romeo Doubs ($3,000) is a possible punt play at the wide receiver position at the stone minimum salary. If Allan Lazard should happen to sit on Sunday, as has been rumored, it would be time to press the lock button for Doubs in all of your cash game lineups. Thankfully, DraftKings puts out salaries for Week 1 well in advance of some of the camp hype for certain players. That means we get Doubs at a bargain-basement salary even though the hype on him has picked up considerably. If Lazard sits out and the new Packer has a chance to be the alpha in a game against the new and improved Minnesota Vikings with a 48-point game total, just put him in and thank me later. If Lazard does play, there is an interesting conundrum and decision to make for punt wide receivers with Doubs and Wan’Dale Robinson.
Tight End
Travis Kelce ($6,600) will likely never see a salary this low again for the rest of the season. In 2021, his salary dropped below $7,000 just once and he proceeded to destroy the Las Vegas Raiders for 22.9 fantasy points that week. With Tyreek Hill and his 25% target share out of the picture this year, Kelce should be the main beneficiary while newcomers like Marques Valdez-Scantling and Juju Smith-Schuster will fight for what’s left over. The Chiefs have the highest implied total on the slate by almost two points, and we know Kansas City is going to score points through the air. Kelce only had one game last season with fewer than five targets and will continue to be the most heavily-involved tight end in our game this year. Beginning next week, the salary goes over $7,00 and remains there the rest of the season.
Cole Kmet ($3,700) was the poster boy over this past offseason for positive regression. There have been only 11 seasons since the year 2000 when a player saw at least 90 targets and did not log a touchdown. Kmet’s 93 targets in 2021 made the list as he failed to score despite those 93 looks and 12 of those being red zone targets. In fact, Kmet was the only one of 29 tight ends with at least eight red zone targets last year that did not score a touchdown. But the usage in the offensive game plan is what’s most encouraging. The Bears and Justin Fields trust him which means he should be back to making regular trips to the end zone very soon. This is another example of a salary that is egregiously low and should be much higher in the weeks to come.
Trey McBride ($2,900) is an absolute gift punt play if Arizona tight end Zach Ertz is ruled out due to injury. We already know the Cardinals will be without De’Andre Hopkins and they are going to have to score points in a hurry to keep up with the mighty Kansas City Cheifs’ offense. McBride was a second-round pick out of Colorado State and the Cardinals have plans to get him involved in the offense. If Ertz sits, this value may be too enticing to pass up.
Defense/Special Teams
Tennessee DST ($3,500) is approaching the upper limit of what I am willing to pay for a DST in cash games. Very rarely, if ever, will I go above $3,500 for a defense, and typically I try to go much lower. But the Titans are at home and are playing the turnover machine that is Daniel Jones. In his last seven healthy games last season, Jones produced more games under 10 points than he did with at least 15 fantasy points. With a wide receiver corps decimated by injuries, the Titans should be able to wreak havoc at home this week. The Giants are projected to score just 19 points on Sunday, the fourth-lowest implied total on the main slate.
Washington DST ($2,500) is much more in my wheelhouse of where I like to camp out for defenses in cash games. They check a number of boxes for a position that is completely unpredictable for fantasy: they are insanely cheap, they are playing at home, their opponent has a low team total (just 20.75), and there are significant question marks in the offense they are facing. Is Trevor Lawrence of the Jaguars actually good now with Urban Meyer out of town or will he continue to be an abomination like last year? Who can say. But for the $2,500 salary tag, I am willing to pay to find out.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, keep in mind, that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kickoff on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build. Some possible substitutions here could be Wan’Dale Robinson for Romeo Doubs or swapping Harris and Gibson for Dameon Pierce and D’Andre Swift/James Conner.
Previous Week’s Results
Each week (beginning on September 16th) will post my final cash game lineup in this spot and the results from the contests I enter in DraftKings with that roster.
