Thursday Night Football Preview
Line: Buffalo Bills (-2.5) | O/U 52.5
Well, it’s finally here. To football fans, the first real NFL action of the season is the equivalent of waking up on Christmas morning and the NFL has certainly brought us a huge bow-wrapped gift for this Thursday. The first game of the NFL season is between two heavyweight teams. One is the Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams and the other is this season’s Super Bowl favorite in the Buffalo Bills.
This debut game should be a close one as both teams match up evenly in the talent they boast on either side of the ball. The last time these two teams met was back in September 2020 when the Bills narrowly won 35-32. This time around could be pretty similar as Vegas has Buffalo favored by just 2.5 points.
Team Breakdowns
The Rams
The Rams are entering this game with a similar roster to what they had last season. On defense, their dynamic duo of Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald are still there but they did lose their midseason acquisition, Von Miller, in free agency. They did however make up for that loss with the addition of All-Pro middle linebacker, Bobby Wagner.
On offense, Los Angeles still has their strong passing connection in Matthew Stafford and triple crown winner, Cooper Kupp. The Rams lost an offensive staple in Robert Woods, but they also added a receiving piece that this offense has never had with a true X receiver in Allen Robinson II.
Look ma, one hand. 👋
1️⃣ @AllenRobinson pic.twitter.com/Ob3srlhx6u
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) August 4, 2022
In the run game, Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson will look to handle the backfield as a solid two-man punch behind an offensive line that will be missing two of last year’s starters in Andrew Whitworth and Austin Corbett. Those former stalwarts will be replaced by OT Joe Noteboom and OG Coleman Shelton.
The Rams are still an incredibly potent collective unit with a higher ceiling than most teams in the league, but if you’re looking for a weak point, the O-Line could definitely be your answer.
The Bills
The Bills have a loaded team that appears to have very few weaknesses. Their defense is looking to repeat as the No. 1 ranked unit with the addition of Von Miller to bolster their pass rush. The returning players include young standouts like Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau along with their impressive secondary led by Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, and Tre’Davious White who will be on the PUP for at least four weeks.
#Bills star CB Tre’Davious White will start the season on reserve/PUP, sources tell me and @RapSheet. He’ll miss at least the first four games.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) August 30, 2022
As for their offense, what more can you say that hasn’t already been said? They’re led by MVP favorite, Josh Allen. They have a slew of receiving weapons with Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Dawson Knox, and Isaiah McKenzie while also having a strong crew of running backs in Devin Singletary, James Cook, and Zack Moss.
When looking for any sort of weakness in this offense, you could point to their offensive line that struggled at times last season. However, they did add Pro Bowl Guard, Roger Saffold, to give them a needed boost.
The Bills, as a team, should be feared in 2022. But for their season opener, they definitely have a big hill to climb with the absence of their top cornerback along with their offensive line matching up against Aaron Donald.
Bills vs. Rams Prediction
While I’m a big fan of the Bills from a season-long perspective, I think the Rams will get the job done while avoiding a Super Bowl hangover in their home debut. The major selling point on the Rams for me is the Bills’ loss of Tre’Davious White.
We saw how Buffalo looked defending the pass without him when they were up against the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs. To put it kindly… they could’ve been better. Now they’re lining up against a receiving corps of similar strength with Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson leading the charge.
Also, even with Von Miller on the opposite side of the field, we can’t forget about the Rams’ pass rush with the human bulldozer that is Aaron Donald against the Bills’ questionable offensive line.
The Bills should keep the score close, but their pass defense and offensive line may be their undoing.
The Pick: Rams +2.5
NFL DFS Showdown Flex Targets
WR – Allen Robinson II ($6,200)
Allen Robinson could have a splash performance in his debut with the Rams. As mentioned above, the Bills will be without Tre’Davious White in this game. That leaves CB2 Dane Jackson to line up with Cooper Kupp while Robinson likely sees either CB Kaiir Elam or CB Christian Benford. While each of these corners could have a solid future, they’re both rookies. I expect A-Rob to take full advantage of two corners making their career debuts this Thursday.
WR – Gabriel Davis ($7,200)
Everyone’s favorite hyped-up wide receiver could be in line for a strong Week 1. Stefon Diggs will be covered by a shutdown corner in Jalen Ramsey for the majority of the contest. This should lead to Josh Allen looking Gabriel Davis’ way on more snaps than usual. With more targets likely coming his way, we’ll be able to see if his 201-yard and four touchdown performance in the divisional round was more than just a mirage.
WR – Isaiah McKenzie ($2,400)
Isaiah McKenzie was listed as having a groin injury he was dealing with but is expected to be ready to go for Thursday according to Sean McDermott. The 27-year-old has been making waves during the offseason and is going to be Buffalo’s top slot receiver for the 2022 season. In 2021, the Rams struggled against targets to slot wide receivers as they ranked just 23rd in DVOA. So, with that in mind, McKenzie could be on his way for a bit of a breakout performance here in Week 1 while being a great value at just $2,400.
