Bradley Stalder’s Fantasy Rankings vs. Expert Consensus Rankings
Every year FantasyPros hosts a Fantasy Football Rankings Accuracy contest with over 200 of the industry’s top writers and experts. The scoring is fierce and requires experts to perfectly predict the order in which Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, and Tight Ends will rank at the end of every NFL Week. Week 10’s Rankings Contest may prove the hardest yet because Week 10 contains bye Weeks, a trip to Munich where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks faceoff, and we may be missing Josh Allen from the Buffalo Bills-Minnesota Vikings matchup due to an elbow injury. Navigating the ripples is no easy task. Even the Thursday Night Football game between the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons was impacted by remnants of hurricane Nicole.
Last week, I finished 40th overall in the contest. Entering Week 10, I’m 34th overall in accuracy out of 211 fantasy rankers year-to-date, including 14th most accurate ranker for wide receivers and 5th highest in IDP accuracy. As time is running out, I am starting to find myself rank more aggressively on players, trying to squeeze out every edge so that I can finish in the top-10 this season.
Just a reminder that I also take part in advising FantasyData’s weekly Rankings. They’re an excellent resource for anyone looking to win their league along with their player projections and advanced metrics.
Follow me on this journey as I highlight a few players I want to be higher or lower than the consensus for Week 10.
Higher Ranked QB
Jimmy Garoppolo – While Garappolo ranks as the QB20 in total fantasy points, he’s been quietly one of the better fantasy-streaming QBs over the last month. Three of Garappolo’s last four games have resulted in a top-9 QB finish while averaging 18 fantasy points per game during that stretch. In Week 10, we expect Deebo Samuel to return to the lineup for the 49ers, which bodes well for Jimmy G’s upside. Coming out of the bye, the 49ers lineup includes Christian McCaffrey, a now-healthy Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. This is a fantasy lineup of dreams– and Garappolo gets to throw to them. Garappolo is a top-7 QB this week for me.
Garappolo is the consensus QB10.
Lower-Ranked QB
Kyler Murray – Even before Kyler was nursing a hamstring injury this week in practice, I was fading him in the rankings. The matchup is just too difficult for Murray to achieve the desired ceiling game. Starting on the ground, the LA Rams have a projected 79% defensive line run-stuffing advantage, per PFF. The Cardinals will be missing key offensive linemen entering this game, and those losses will be clearly felt by both Murray and the running backs. Taking a step back, the Rams overall are a difficult matchup for QBs, ranking as a 23rd percentile matchup against opposing QBs. The Rams have allowed only 13.8 fantasy points per game so far to the QB position. And it’s not like Murray showed much success the last time these two teams met up. Murray completed 37 passes on 58 attempts and threw for 314 yards, and yet finished as the QB22 back in Week 3. Murray only finished with 8 rushing yards on 2 attempts that week. And with Rondale Moore facing a tough matchup out of the slot, there looks to be both a limited ceiling and a low floor for Murray entering this week 10 matchup. Murray will fall no higher than the QB10 this week for me.
Murray is the consensus QB5.
Higher Ranked RB
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Jonathan Taylor – For Taylor this week, it’s that there’s no one else on the depth chart for Indianapolis. The Colts just cut Phillip Lindsay, traded Nyheim Hines before the deadline, and now Deon Jackson hasn’t practiced for two straight days trending toward inactive. The only other RB of note is Super Bowl champion Jake Funk, who was just added off of the New Orleans practice squad. Taylor has missed multiple games this year due to an ankle injury and reaggravation a few weeks later. Now that Taylor has taken time to rehab, he finds himself with a good matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders who are an 84th percentile matchup versus opposing running backs, allowing 23.7 fantasy points per game to the position. Additionally, the Raiders allow the most running back receiving yards on the season. For the Colts this season, it’s been Taylor running routes out of the backfield– eclipsing 19 or more routes in five of his six games. Taylor is a top-10 RB for me this week.
Taylor is the consensus RB28.
Lower-Ranked RB
Najee Harris – Harris has been outplayed from an efficiency metric by Jaylen Warren this season. And while Najee has been out on the football field, he’s still clearly affected by the lisfranc injury that cost him part of the preseason. It wouldn’t be surprising to continue to see more Jaylen Warren as the season moves on. As for Harris, he’s the RB28 in total fantasy points on the season, finishing as RB28 or worse in four of his last five games. And, that’s despite averaging 16.4 touches during that span. Now Harris gets the New Orleans Saints who give up the 3rd fewest receptions to RBs on the season and held Kenyan Drake to 3.88 yards per carry in Week 9. Harris is my RB29 this week.
Harris is the consensus RB22.
Higher Ranked WR
Jerry Jeudy – Before Denver’s bye week, Jerry Jeudy had a streak of four straight games of 7 targets and at least 53 receiving yards. Against the Jets in Week 7 and Jags in Week 8, Jeudy finished in the top 20 of wide receivers. He’s out-targeted Courtland Sutton 25-16 over the last three games. And the matchup for Jeudy cannot be any better. Jeudy has the only 100% Matchup vs. a CB projected for more than 50% of snaps against Joshua Kalu who has the 13th worst PFF coverage grade amongst DBs and allows the 2nd highest reception %. Even on snaps not lined up against Kalu, the Tennessee Titans are a 93rd-percentile matchup for fantasy points allowed to opposing WRS, allowing over 33 fantasy points per game to the position. Jeudy is a top-15 WR for me this week.
Jeudy is the consensus WR27.
Lower-Ranked WR
CeeDee Lamb – Dak is back. The Cowboys are coming out of the bye. Those are the pieces of good news. The bad news is that Lamb and the Dallas Cowboys are facing the desperate Green Bay Packers at home at Lambeau. The Packers have proven to be one of the stingiest defenses against WRs, ranking as a 16th-percentile matchup versus the position. They only give up 23.3 points per game, and held star Amon-Ra St. Brown to 4 catches and 55 yards on 9 targets, finishing as the WR29 on the week. Lamb has experienced a wide range of outcomes thus far, finishing both WR75 and WR12 in the games Prescott has started. Plus, safety valve TE Dalton Schultz should be back to get targets in this offense, lowering Lamb’s 3rd highest target share. As for the game pace, the Packers are still one of the slower teams in the NFL, limiting the possessions the Cowboys may have to pass it Lamb’s way. Lamb will rank outside my top-15 of WRs this week.
Lamb is the consensus WR10.
Higher Ranked TE
Cade Otton – For Otton, it’s very simple. He’s the starting TE for Tom Brady. And he gets the Seattle Seahawks this week. Otton is coming off a top-4 TE week where he caught 5 passes for 68 yards on 6 targets and had a game-clinching TD against the Rams late in the 4th quarter. And the matchup couldn’t be better– the Seahawks give up 17.4 fantasy points per game to the TE position on the season. That is the same number of fantasy points per game that Travis Kelce scores, ranking as the TE1 on the season. With Njoku still nursing an ankle injury and numerous negative matchups for other TEs on the week, Otton comes in as my TE7 on the week.
Otton is the consensus TE18.
Lower-Ranked TE
Evan Engram – Engram left Week 9’s game early against the Las Vegas Raiders with a back injury. He’s been limited so far this week in practice. While Engram had finished as a top-9 TE entering Week 9, he had finished TE23 or worse in four of his previous six games. Injuries had plagued the fragile Engram in the past, and concerns my main concerns are that they will continue to limit his production until we get a full go. Engram will rank outside my top-15 this week at TE and won’t be a strong streaming option in deeper TE leagues this week. If he’s ruled out, I’d pivot to TE Dan Arnold.
Engram is the consensus TE13.
