Fantasy Rankings vs. ECR: Week 10
Bradley Stalder's Fantasy Rankings vs. Expert Consensus Rankings
Every year FantasyPros hosts a Fantasy Football Rankings Accuracy contest with over 200 of the industry's top writers and experts. The scoring is fierce and requires experts to perfectly predict the order in which Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, and Tight Ends will rank at the end of every NFL Week. Week 10's Rankings Contest may prove the hardest yet because Week 10 contains bye Weeks, a trip to Munich where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks faceoff, and we may be missing Josh Allen from the Buffalo Bills-Minnesota Vikings matchup due to an elbow injury. Navigating the ripples is no easy task. Even the Thursday Night Football game between the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons was impacted by remnants of hurricane Nicole.
Last week, I finished 40th overall in the contest. Entering Week 10, I'm 34th overall in accuracy out of 211 fantasy rankers year-to-date, including 14th most accurate ranker for wide receivers and 5th highest in IDP accuracy. As time is running out, I am starting to find myself rank more aggressively on players, trying to squeeze out every edge so that I can finish in the top-10 this season.
Just a reminder that I also take part in advising FantasyData's weekly Rankings. They're an excellent resource for anyone looking to win their league along with their player projections and advanced metrics.
Follow me on this journey as I highlight a few players I want to be higher or lower than the consensus for Week 10.
Higher Ranked QB
Jimmy Garoppolo - While Garappolo ranks as the QB20 in total fantasy points, he's been quietly one of the better fantasy-streaming QBs over the last month. Three of Garappolo's last four games have resulted in a top-9 QB finish while averaging 18 fantasy points per game during that stretch. In Week 10, we expect Deebo Samuel to return to the lineup for the 49ers, which bodes well for Jimmy G's upside. Coming out of the bye, the 49ers lineup includes Christian McCaffrey, a now-healthy Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. This is a fantasy lineup of dreams-- and Garappolo gets to throw to them. Garappolo is a top-7 QB this week for me.
Garappolo is the consensus QB10.
Lower-Ranked QB
Kyler Murray - Even before Kyler was nursing a hamstring injury this week in practice, I was fading him in the rankings. The matchup is just too difficult for Murray to achieve the desired ceiling game. Starting on the ground, the LA Rams have a projected 79% defensive line run-stuffing advantage, per PFF. The Cardinals will be missing key offensive linemen entering this game, and those losses will be clearly felt by both Murray and the running backs. Taking a step back, the Rams overall are a difficult matchup for QBs, ranking as a 23rd percentile matchup against opposing QBs. The Rams have allowed only 13.8 fantasy points per game so far to the QB position. And it's not like Murray showed much success the last time these two teams met up. Murray completed 37 passes on 58 attempts and threw for 314 yards, and yet finished as the QB22 back in Week 3. Murray only finished with 8 rushing yards on 2 attempts that week. And with Rondale Moore facing a tough matchup out of the slot, there looks to be both a limited ceiling and a low floor for Murray entering this week 10 matchup. Murray will fall no higher than the QB10 this week for me.
Murray is the consensus QB5.
Higher Ranked RB
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Bradley Stalder
Bradley Stalder has over twelve years of fantasy football experience in auction, dynasty, redraft, and bestball formats. Before developing the Fantasy Football Fanalysts Podcast (@FFFanalysts) with Billy Muzio (@FFMuzio), he also wrote fantasy football articles and created comprehensive player and team projections for 3CoSports.com. He earned his BS in Mathematical Science from Franciscan University and MEd with focus in Mathematics Education from the University of Notre Dame. He lives near Detroit, Michigan with his wife and three daughters. He teaches Math by day to 7th and 8th graders. You can follow him on Twitter at @FFStalder.