RB/WR Opportunity Breakdown For Week 10
The most important thing when it comes to fantasy football is how many fantasy points a player scores. But that’s not the end of the story, not by a long stretch. The peripheral statistics also tell an important story. Looking at snaps played, snap share, targets, and target share gives you a complete picture of a player’s usage during football games. If a player isn’t producing but they are getting snaps and opportunities, then your concerns can be tempered because they are still part of the game plan. Conversely, if they are scoring points but on minimal usage, you also might want to temper your expectations for them going forward. As a FantasyData subscriber, you have access to several tools, including statistics, advanced metrics, and efficiency metrics, to help you navigate the fantasy football map.
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Running Backs
- Per usual, James Conner’s stepped right back into his customary role as the undisputed bell-cow of the Arizona backfield. Conner played on 71.4% of the offensive and relegated Eno Benjamin to a change-of-pace back role. A week after playing on 74.4% of the offensive snaps, Benjamin only saw a 27% snap share with the return of Conner. Though the rushing workload was pretty evenly distributed with Conner getting seven attempts to four for Benjamin, Conner dominated the targets with a five-to-one advantage. Any fears that Conner would be forced to share the backfield with Benjamin for the rest of the year should have been put to rest after Sunday’s usage.
- The Atlanta backfield was fun on Sunday, assuming a jumbled mess is fun for you. Cordarrelle Patterson returned from missing several games due to injury and put up an 18.3 fantasy point week, but Tyler Allgeier was able to have a productive day as well with 13.3 fantasy points scored. Patterson played on 39.3% of snaps, Allgeier played on 37.7% of snaps, and Caleb Huntley pulled up the rear with a not-insignificant 21.3% snap share. Snaps weren’t the only thing being fairly evenly distributed as the backfield opportunities were as well, with Patterson controlling 43% of the rushing attempts from running backs Sunday, while Allgeier captured 33% of those attempts, and Huntley picking up the remaining 23% of running back attempts. To further muddle things Marcus Mariota also had five rushing attempts on Sunday. None of the running backs was a factor in the passing attack with Patterson and Allgeier splitting the two running back targets on the week. Though touchdown scoring week to week is hard to predict, and it’s not likely that Patterson will often rush for two touchdowns a week, his usage inside the five-yard line makes him the preferred running back from Atlanta going forward. Patterson converted two of his three rushing attempts from inside the five-yard line into touchdowns this week and was the only Atlanta back to see any attempts inside the five-yard line.
- Without J.D. McKissic to contend with the Washington backfield is coalescing around Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson, with them splitting the backfield snaps and work. Gibson saw his highest snap share since Week 1, playing on 57.8% of offensive snaps, the first time he’s played on more than half of offensive snaps since Week 2. Gibson’s increase in snaps didn’t adversely affect Brian Robinson to a great degree as he still played on 43.8% of snaps, and his 28 total snaps were his second most this year. Robinson saw more rushing work on the day (13/11) while Gibson saw more targets (3/2), with Robinson getting the only rushing attempt in the red zone on the day for Washington. I have to note that Sunday was only the second time in five games that Robinson was targeted in the passing attack, and thus far the results have been pitiful as he’s converted all four of his targets into seven receiving yards this year, including -6 yards receiving line Sunday. It’s unlikely that Washington will scheme any targets for Robinson, and much more likely that Gibson will be the preferred receiving option as evidenced by his 12.1% share of targets this year. Robinson is going to need touchdowns to produce and is someone I will not be starting in any lineups.
BRob with the good old 2 (receptions) for 1 (1.4 fantasy points) last week. 😬 pic.twitter.com/tKLjw01i6S
— (((Shane says))) (@ShaneIsTheWorst) November 10, 2022
Receiving Options
- Five days after joining the Vikings roster T.J. Hockenson stepped right into the Vikings offense and saw his second-highest snap share of the season, with a 90.9.% snap share Sunday, after averaging an 85.4% share over the first eight weeks of the season with the Lions. He was also the second most targeted receiving target on Sunday, with nine. Hockenson only saw at least nine targets or more once in his first eight games this year. Hockenson wasn’t just highly targeted, he was also highly targeted in the red zone as well. Hockenson’s three red zone targets this week matched his seasonal total of three red zone targets he saw in eight games with the Lions. Though Hockenson didn’t convert any of these targets into touchdowns, the usage is what we’re looking for, and if he sees continued usage in the red zone he’ll eventually start turning those targets into points. It might be considered early, but I’m ready to anoint Hockenson as the second receiving option on a Vikings offense that was sorely in need of one.
- One of my favorite buys in dynasty leagues right now is Michael Pittman. Though Pittman has totaled 17.5 in Sam Ehlinger’s two starts he’s still commanded a 28.8% target share in those games, and continues to run routes at an elite level with a 39.8% routes run rate which is the fourth highest rate among wide receivers. His 24.9% target share ranks 19th among wide receivers for the season and he rarely comes off the field as evidenced by his 96.2% snap share which ranks as the fourth-highest snap share at the wide receiver position. The point I’m trying to get across is that though Pittman is scoring at a low-end WR2 rate, his peripherals suggest that there is an untapped ceiling that could be reached if he were to receive better quarterback play. Considering the Colts currently hold the 14th overall pick and just fired Frank Reich, installing ESPN commentator, ex-Colt Jeff Saturday (who has never coached anything other than a high school team) as the new head coach, there’s a very good chance that Pittman could see an upgrade in quarterback as soon as 2023 with the Colts pick likely to climb much closer to the top 10.
- Despite an up-and-down season, Christian Kirk is still on pace to set personal bests in receiving yards, receiving yards per game, and most importantly fantasy points per game this year. Though his contract might have led to hopes of a WR1 season for Kirk, he’s currently a low-end WR (21 in PPG), which is still respectable. He has a 23.7% target share on the season, and he’s seen an increase in targets over the past three weeks, capturing a 26% share. Despite a dud in Week 8, Kirk has surpassed 17.1 fantasy points in two of his last three games. While the short-term outlook (i.e. rest of the season) is good for Kirk, I do have concerns about what he’ll be when Calvin Ridley joins this roster next year, assuming he is reinstated by the NFL. Ridley had a 25.8% target share in his last full season back in 2020, and in five games in the 2021 season, he was targeted on 27.4% of Atlanta pass attempts. One positive is that under Doug Pederson the Philadelphia Eagles finished in the top 10 in pass attempts in four of his five seasons, and in the fifth year they only fell to 13th overall. The Jaguars are 18th in pass attempts per game this year, but with Ridley added to the fold next year I expect the Jaguars to increase their passing volume.
- Kyle Pitts may not be scoring fantasy points befitting a generational tight-end talent but he’s certainly seen elite volume. His 23.6% target share on the season is the third highest among tight ends, and over the past three weeks, he leads the position with a 33.3% share which is a full 6% higher than the next nearest tight end, Dallas Goedert, during that span. Though he’s getting elite targets, 21 over the past three weeks, he’s converted less than half of those (10) into actual receptions, keeping him below 4.7 fantasy points in two of the last three weeks. The shaky quality of his targets has caused Pitts to plummet to 27th in fantasy points per target among wide receivers a season after he placed a much more respectable 19th at the position. There’s not much reason to expect anything to change this season, because Marcus Mariota has the Falcons playing competitively enough, but if the Falcons upgrade at the quarterback position next year it should benefit Pitts.
