Thursday Night Football Preview
Line: Atlanta Falcons (-3) | O/U 42.5
Here we are in Week 10 and we have a Thursday night matchup that offers some intrigue. While the two teams themselves are pretty ugly, they have already faced off in an earlier week, and their matchup was one of the more entertaining ones this season. In a Week 10 battle between two NFC South rivals, the 4-5 Atlanta Falcons will be heading to Charlotte to take on the 2-7 Carolina Panthers.
Team Breakdowns
Both of these teams have had their fair share of ups and downs, mostly downs for Carolina. However, they play in the worst division in football so they technically aren’t out of the division race just yet, despite their efforts.
In their previous matchup from Week 7, these two teams engaged in a surprising shootout that the Falcons won 37-34 in overtime. That result could easily happen once again as they each have lackluster defenses that have been allowing some large point totals as of late. So, while the matchup may look gross on the surface, it could be more entertaining than most are expecting.
Vegas currently has the Falcons set at three-point favorites against the Panthers with an Over/Under of 42.5.
The Falcons:
Notable Injuries: CB A.J. Terrell (Out), C Matt Hennessy (Out), FS Erik Harris (Out)
The Atlanta Falcons have had an interesting season so far. Despite looking like one of the favorites for the top pick in the 2023 draft prior to the start of the season, they’ve outperformed expectations to this point and taken down some impressive opponents. They’ll be aiming to beat the Panthers for the second time in three weeks on Thursday.
Defense has not been one of Atlanta’s strengths this season. They currently rank 31st in yards allowed per game, 32nd in passing yards allowed per game, and eighth in rushing yards allowed per game. They’re also allowing a score on 43.5 percent of their opponents’ drives (3rd worst in the NFL) and they’re last in quarterback pressures per dropback. It’s safe to say that this group could be better.
Grady Jarrett this season.
8 games.
29 tackles.
8 tackles for loss.
2 pass deflected.
4.5 sacks.Dominant.#Falcons #DirtyBirds pic.twitter.com/8WSey6N3Sa
— Falcons Corner (@Falcons_Corner) November 6, 2022
Their personnel on defense is not amazing considering their rough performance so far, but they do have one of the best on the defensive line in Grady Jarrett. The eighth-year veteran is top-20 PFF-graded defensive lineman who also is tied for sixth in tackles for loss with nine. The only other defender of note, cornerback A.J. Terrell, has struggled at times this season after shutting receivers down last year. Unfortunately, he’s been out for the past two weeks with a hamstring injury and is questionable for Week 10.
Offensively, the Falcons have been one of the most perplexing teams this year. They’re 25th in yards per game, 30th in passing yards per game, and fourth in rushing yards per game. What’s confusing about them is their unwavering commitment to the run game.
The Falcons have drafted pass-game weapons in the top 10 of back-to-back drafts with tight end Kyle Pitts and Drake London. But their game plan has been heavily committed to the run with a group of random running backs for most of the year as Cordarrelle Patterson returned from a long injury stint just last week.
It manages to work in some aspects, but it hinders them in others as they are usually playing from behind, and basic game management tells you that running the ball drains the clock. To a sane football fan, it doesn’t make much sense, but I guess that’s why fans aren’t NFL coaches.
The Panthers:
Notable Injuries: OT Taylor Moton (Questionable), DT Matthew Ioannidis (Questionable)
The Panthers have been one of the most baffling teams to watch during the 2022 NFL season. They fired their head coach Matt Rhule after a 1-4 start and were supposed to be having a fire sale to increase their chances at the number-one pick in 2023.
They did trade franchise running back Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers and disgruntled wide receiver Robby Anderson to the Cardinals, but they ended up keeping defensive end Brian Burns and wide receiver D.J. Moore. After completing a surprising upset over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina appears to be back on track of losing games to increase their draft position.
On defense, this team is near the bottom. They’re 27th in yards allowed per game, 21st against the pass, and 28th against the run. They’re coming off of a game where they allowed 171 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns to Bengals running back Joe Mixon before halftime. That performance was so bad that it resulted in interim head coach Steve Wilks immediately firing their defensive line coach, Paul Pasqualoni, after the game. The Panthers will look to improve in that category unless more coaches are looking to get fired as well.
Their defensive personnel is better than most would think. They have a young core that could lead them to special places later on with defensive end Brian Burns, cornerback Jaycee Horn, defensive tackle Derrick Brown, linebacker Frankie Luvu, and free safety Jeremy Chinn. Derrick Brown in particular has been a monster with the sixth-best PFF defensive grade and the third-best run defense grade among defensive linemen. Jeremy Chinn has been on IR but was recently designated to return, however, it is unlikely that he suits up on Thursday.
First NFL TD for TMJ pic.twitter.com/jGA67erfzg
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) November 6, 2022
The offense in Carolina has been strange. After starting off the year relying on Christian McCaffrey and an awful Baker Mayfield, they’re now counting on former XFL star P.J. Walker and D’Onta Foreman to produce yards for them. They also have some solid receivers. D.J. Moore is well known as a receiver with loads of talent and Terrace Marshall Jr. has been picking it up as of late with two straight solid games.
They’re currently 30th in yards per game, 28th in passing yards per game, and 22nd in rushing yards per game. In their last game against the Falcons, the Panthers had their best offensive performance of the season with P.J. Walker dealing and D’onta Foreman running all over the Atlanta run defense. They’ll look to repeat that performance in some aspects on Thursday.
Falcons vs. Panthers Prediction
While it may be fun to speculate the Panthers winning this game, the pick is the Falcons. While Carolina did look like a competent football team in Weeks 7 and 8, they gave fans a preview of what their end goal is in Week 9. They looked like a team that wants to land their franchise quarterback of the future by the time the 2023 draft rolls around. Allowing 35 points at halftime to the Cincinnati Bengals should be a major hint at that.
So, while it might be fun to speculate a win for the Panthers, I think that this is the start of the Panthers really honing in on losing games to improve the future of their franchise.
The Pick: Falcons -3
NFL DFS Showdown Flex Targets
RB – Tyler Allgeier ($6,200)
Tyler Allgeier is a solid option at flex. While it may look like Cordarrelle Patterson is back and is going to control this backfield moving forward, he did just come off an injury. He looked solid last week but he’s on a short week and he played the exact same amount of snaps as Allgeier in Week 9. Rather than paying up for Patterson, I’d go with Allgeier as he offers a better value.
WR – Terrace Marshall Jr. ($8,400)
Terrace Marshall’s usage has been increasing as of late. Over his past two games, he’s worked his way into a WR2 role in Carolina with 15 total targets. I expect the Panthers to be playing from behind in this game, and the Falcons have a dreadful pass defense. Marshall could take advantage of the matchup with more receiving opportunities heading his way.
RB – Chuba Hubbard ($5,800)
After being injured for the last two weeks, Chuba Hubbard has been cleared and will be playing in this Thursday night game. Hubbard is likely to be the 1B to D’Onta Foreman’s 1A in this backfield. With both of them in the lineup against Tampa Bay in Week 7, Hubbard had 73 yards from scrimmage on 11 opportunities with a touchdown. Against a much worse Atlanta run defense here in Week 10, he could have somewhat of a repeat performance if this game turns into a high-scoring affair.
