Fantasy Rankings vs. ECR: Week 5

Higher Ranked QB

Jacoby Brissett –   I must admit this was not a pick I thought I would make two months ago. Jacoby Brissett does not look like the quarterback he was during his time in Indianapolis. In fact, in 2017 and 2019, Brissett’s PFF passing grades of 62.6 and 58 were among the league’s worst. Now, his 72.6 PFF pass grade is 7th among QBs with 140 dropbacks. He’s 11th among QBs in Average Depth of Target (ADot) and 12th in completion %. Brissett also has taken the 2nd fewest sacks, and is 8th among QBs in rush yards– pointing to his mobility and awareness in the pocket. He’s been everything the Browns had hoped for while weathering the Deshaun Watson suspension. Brissett faces off against the LA Chargers, who lost Joey Bosa for 8-10 weeks due to a groin strain. The Chargers already have given up the 4th most passing TDs to QBs, and with Amari Cooper and David Njoku full-go, along with Nick Chubb keeping the Chargers defense honest, Brissett’s ceiling is more achievable on Sunday.  Jacoby Brissett is my QB16.

Brissett is the consensus QB22. 

Lower Ranked QB

Kyler Murray –  Not much looks good for the Arizona Cardinals offense outside of Kyler Murray. He’s had three top-10 QB weeks and one contest outside the top-20 of quarterbacks. Now he faces a Philadelphia Eagles defense that only allows 9 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Carson Wentz, Trevor Lawrence- on average the QB13 this year scoring 18.5 fantasy points. But the Eagles limited those QBs to an average of nine points. Nine. Arizona has a -22% Pass Grade advantage, per PFF, and the Eagles only allow 14 rush yards per game this season to QBs. Murray elevates his floor with his legs, but that may not be enough to get Murray into this week’s top-10. Kyler Murray is my QB15. 

Murray is the consensus QB8. 

Higher Ranked RB

Dalvin Cook – Dalvin Cook may still be dealing with a shoulder injury, but he’s got one of the best matchups this week against the Chicago Bears. PFF grades Minnesota to have a 34% Run Blocking Advantage over Chicago. The Bears are giving up the 8th most fantasy points to running backs so far this season, including a 30-point game to Aaron Jones, a 17-point game to Dameon Pierce, and another 17-point game to Saquon Barkley. Even Elijah Mitchell was 6-41 rushing before leaving with a 1st half knee injury against the Bears. Cook was unlucky in London when Alexander Mattison scored the touchdown, but he still carried the ball 20 times, played a season-high 75% of snaps, and ran 19 routes– all elite RB1 usage. With Jonathan Taylor out in Week 5, and a positive matchup, Dalvin Cook is my RB1 overall this week.

Cook is the consensus RB6.

Lower Ranked RB

Ezekiel Elliott – Long gone are the days of 18-100 rushing for Ezekiel Elliott. At least for this week against the Rams. Zeke is coming off a 19-49 rushing performance against Washington. On a positive note, Elliott handled 20 touches for the first time all season. But his noted lack of efficiency by plodding between the tackles limits his ability to score ceiling games. Elliott has the 9th lowest Juke Rate (14.1%) among qualified RBs and has the 3rd lowest yards created per attempt rate in the league. And now his matchup is one of the toughest on the slate. The Rams allow the fewest fantasy points to running backs on the season, only allowing 1 total TD in four games to the running back position.  Buffalo’s Devin Singletary went 8-48 rushing and finished as RB39; Atlanta’s Cordarrelle Patterson rushed 10-41 finishing as RB51; Arizona’s James Conner went for 13-39 on the ground finishing as the RB35; San Francisco’s Jeff Wilson carried the ball at an 18-74-1 finishing as the RB17. With a low floor and a limited ceiling, Elliott is my RB39 for Week 5. 

Elliott is the consensus RB30.

Higher Ranked WR

AJ Brown – If there’s a lurking spike game in the works for AJ Brown, Week 5 is the week. The Cardinals have two cornerbacks in the bottom 11 of PFF coverage grade projecting to lineup across from Brown on the majority of his snaps. But that’s not all. Brown has been crushing this year. He’s 2nd among all WRs with 3.39 yards per route, 3rd among receivers in contested catches, and 3rd among WRs in receiving yards. Brown is commanding a 32.2% target share, and the Eagles are passing at a much higher rate than 2021. And Brown’s historically shown an elite ceiling. 9 of Brown’s 47 games have finished as the WR6 or better. My bold call of the week is Brown finishes as the WR1 overall. The time is now. 

Brown is the consensus WR8. 

Lower Ranked WR

Brandin Cooks – The Houston Texans are the only winless team going into Week 5. Their struggles directly relate to how ineffective Davis Mills has been at getting Brandin Cooks the ball consistently to start the season. Cooks has earned a 26.1% target share to lead the Houston Texans, but only has 215 receiving yards through 4 games. He’s finished twice as a WR2 but has finished outside the top 48 of WRs in his other games. Fantasy managers have been waiting for a breakout game for Cooks– and it looks like they’re going to wait another week. The Jaguars allow the 5th fewest receptions per game to Wide Receivers and Cooks is projected to line up against Shaq Griffin, who is one of the better-graded coverage cornerbacks. I’ve moved down Cooks to WR35 given his lack of ceiling so far this season and a fairly tough matchup. 

Cooks is the consensus WR22.

Higher Ranked TE

David Njoku – Njoku has been playing at an elite TE1 level for the last two weeks, but the underlying route metrics early in the season indicated his breakout was imminent. Njoku gets a juicy matchup projected to align against Chargers linebacker Kenneth Murray, and is a cheap stack with Brissett. Njoku is TE7 in target share, 4th in Red Zone targets, and is playing 91% of snaps. It’s clear there is chemistry between Njoku and Brissett. Let’s not forget that Jack Doyle was a back-end TE1 during his season with Brissett due to target volume. Njoku’s floor is a back-end TE1, but as fantasy managers saw in Week 3, he can achieve elite-level outcomes. Njoku is my TE6 this week.

Njoku is the consensus TE12. 

Lower Ranked TE

Zach Ertz – While fantasy managers may be tempted to believe the revenge-game narrative, Zach Ertz is not poised for a big game. The matchup is tough for Kyler Murray but even more so for Zach Ertz. Ertz leads all TEs in Red Zone and End Zone targets, surely to decrease upon the return of Rondale Moore, who plays primarily in the slot. Linebacker TJ Edwards has only allowed 51 receiving yards on the 15 times he’d been targeted against, while also having the 3rd highest PFF coverage grade among LBs with 100 or more coverage snaps this season. In a down game where Arizona may struggle, even the half-PPR format may not be enough to salvage the day for Ertz. He’s my TE13 for this week. 

Ertz is the consensus TE6.