DraftKings Cash Game Plays: NFL Week 5
The NFL Week 5 slate is ready for us to attack, but first, let’s think about how to react to the last few DFS slates. With only four weeks worth of data, it’s not hard to overreact to what we saw on the field, particularly as injuries and outlier performances pile up. Let other people chase the outcome stats, and we will instead focus on usage and opportunity.
We will go through each position at a variety of salary levels to see who are the best plays in cash games on DraftKings. For these purposes, a cash game is any contest that pays out at least one-third of the field. While these are also viable GPP options, we are primarily looking for safe floor combined with high usage that can lead to ceiling games.
Week 4 Results
This was my cash game lineup for Week 3 for double-ups, 50/50s, and head-to-heads for Week 4:
Results:
- Massive $25 Double Up (Single Entry) – 1242/6896
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 1009/4597
- Giant $10 Double Up (Single Entry) – 1526/8620
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 1737/11494
- Giant $5 Double Up (Single Entry) – 2183/17241
- Giant $2 Double Up – 3622/14367
- Single Entry $2 Double Up – 1224/8257
This last week in DFS was all about whether you had T.J. Hockenson in cash games. He was around 40% rostered depending on what contests you entered, and he was the key to unlocking a win. Any other tight end put you so far behind the eight ball, it was almost impossible to overcome his 43 DK points. In the end, that decision masked the mistake of trying to get too cute with two value wide receivers plus paying up for Saquon Barkley. In the end, the right move was to play three mid-range receivers (Lamb, Cooks, Diontae Johnson, Lockett, etc.) and pay down for the volume of Josh Jacobs. I was still able to cash in 100% of my contests thanks to Hockenson and the Giants DST but will learn the lesson that cheap receivers are cheap for a reason.
Week 5 Cash Plays
Quarterback
Josh Allen ($8,200) continues to be the primary spend-up cash game option even after a “down” week where he put up 24.5 DraftKings points against the Baltimore Ravens. The benefit of Allen is even when the passing game is not there like last Sunday (213 yards, one score), he can get you fantasy points in other ways. In that game, he had a season-high 11 rushing attempts for 70 yards and a rushing score. In Week 5, he gets a Pittsburgh defense at home that is a shell of their former selves without T.J. Watt. I expect a big bounce-back from both Allen and Stefon Diggs this week.
Tom Brady ($6,000) had his big bounce back last week against the Kansas City Cheifs when he put up 385 passing yards and three scores en route to 29.4 DK points. It’s funny what happens when you get weapons like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones back on the field. Now he gets just a $300 salary bump and gets an elite matchup against the Atlanta Falcons who are bottom 10 in both passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed this season. I also seem to remember Brady doing something interesting to the Falcons several years ago…
Trevor Lawrence ($5,600) gets a salary drop despite moving from one of the worst quarterback matchups last week against Philadelphia to one of the best at home against the lowly Houston Texans. Houston just allowed 338 passing yards and 34 total points to the Chargers last week. Lawrence is completing his passes at more than 10 yards per attempt this year and is beginning to look like the number one overall pick Jacksonville invested in last season.
Running Back
Nick Chubb ($8,000) has seen his salary increase by $1,500 since Week 1, but that’s more an indictment of how mispriced he was then rather than an overprice now. All Chubb has done through four weeks is average 23.7 fantasy points per game, carry the ball at least 17 times in every game, hit the 100-yard rushing bonus in three of four games, and score five touchdowns. Now he gets a date with the Los Angeles Chargers who are giving up the fourth-most DraftKings points to running backs this year, including 131 yards and a score to Dameon Pierce last week. This may not be a week to pay up for running backs, but if I do, Chubb will be my main target.
Leonard Fournette ($6,900) somehow scored 18.7 fantasy points last week against the Chiefs despite rushing for -3 yards on the game. But because he is so involved in the passing game, (seven catches for 57 yards and a score last week), that involvement on a PPR site can cover a multitude of rushing sins. He shouldn’t face as much resistance against Atlanta this week. They have allowed 108 rushing yards per game to opponents so far and given up over 20 DK points per game to the position. With a high 28.5 implied team total, it is completely fine to target multiple players from this team on Sunday.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,500) has seen his usage increase to a point where he is just completely mispriced at $5,500. Stevenson’s rushing attempts have increased every game this season and now he is coming off back to back weeks with five targets and at least 23 receiving yards. And all of that is before we even begin to talk about the matchup against the come-on-down defense by the Detroit Lions. The Lions have already allowed eight rushing touchdowns this year, three more than any other team. They allow 31.7 fantasy points per game to running backs, so even if Damien Harris is involved, there is plenty to go around for Stevenson.
Breece Hall ($5,400) is similar to Stevenson in that he has recently seen an explosion in his usage in recent games. His rushing attempts in Week 4 more than doubled to 17 and he also tallied his third game with at least six targets. His DK points have increased for four straight weeks and he may be starting to get more of a bell-cow type workload as soon as this week against Miami. In a week that severely lacks running back value, Hall currently looks like the best bet as we head into the weekend.
Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp ($9,600) now has reached a salary level where you really have to consider whether it is a wise move to fit a $9,600 wide receiver in your cash games. Spoiler Alert: He is worth it. In three of his four games, he has seen at least 14 targets and 11 receptions. He is on pace to demolish the single-season reception record after 42 in four games and he already has four scores. Last week, he didn’t score a touchdown and still managed 29.2 DraftKings points. With Allen Robinson looking like he is done, and no Van Jefferson or Odell Beckham in site, Kupp should continue to dominate targets all year. He was made for DraftKings’ scoring system and should smash yet again.
CeeDee Lamb ($7,000) will be across the field from Cooper Kupp on Sunday and is looking to continue a streak of four straight games with at least eight targets and three straight games with at least 75 receiving yards. He has scored in back-to-back weeks and appears to far and away be Cooper Rush’s favorite target. The Rams have five safeties and cornerbacks listed on their injury report this week, and while Jalen Ramsey will still be on the field, he can’t be everywhere at once. I’ll take Lamb’s 33.3% target share all day even in a perceived tough matchup.
Chris Olave ($5,700) barely got a salary bump this week (just $200) after 67 yards and a score against the Vikings in London last week. Against a soft defense like the Seahawks, Olave at just $5,700 might be trending toward being a lock-button player by the time we reach Sunday morning. Perhaps you recall Seattle allowing 384 passing yards and four passing touchdowns to Jared Goff who was without his top three receivers? Whether it’s Andy Dalton or Jameis Winston throwing the ball to Olave won’t matter much. He leads the world in air yards with 699 (188 more than second) and now finds himself in the top 20 wide receivers for target share this season (25.9%).
Tight End
Dallas Goedert ($4,700) now has four straight games with at least four targets and nine fantasy points. He has below 60 receiving yards just once this year and now gets the dream matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona allows the most DK points to tight ends on the year (20.8 per game), including ranking bottom-three in catches, yards, and touchdowns allowed. I don’t normally pay almost $5,000 unless it’s an elite option, but this is the best matchup you can ask for.
Tyler Higbee ($4,300) is now second among all tight ends in target share (25.7%), trailing only Mark Andrews this year. He is also top ten in routes run, targets per route run, receptions, and receiving yards. His three touchdowns is tied for the league lead, and he has clearly passed all other Rams’ options as the second read in the offense. Dallas has played extremely tough against tight ends this year (only 108 yards and no scores allowed), but with Higbee you are guaranteed elite usage and red zone work (five targets there already).
David Njoku ($3,800) was the other answer at tight end last week, although Hockenson was the cheat code. He was targeted seven times, catching five balls for 73 yards. He has been the clear second option for Jacoby Brissett so far this season and is up just $100 in salary against a Los Angeles Chargers defense that has allowed 24, 38, and 27 points the last three weeks. Njoku has also played the second-most snaps in the league at the position, leading to an 18.7% target share.
Defense/Special Teams
Minnesota DST ($3,600) gets perhaps the best matchup on the slate but is only fifth in salary this week. They face the Chicago Bears at home, and the Bears have been a turnover machine. Last week the Bears allowed six sacks and three fumble recoveries to the New York Giants, not exactly a defense known for their ability to overpower opponents. Pricing at the skill positions is tight this week, but if you choose not to go all the way down on defense, Minnesota looks like the best option.
Dallas DST ($2,500) has been an absolute wrecking ball against opposing offenses this year. Here are their stats: they have not allowed more than 195 yards passing in any game, they have 15 sacks in four games, and already have four interceptions. Enter Matthew Stafford who does not look like the player who took his team to the Super Bowl last year. He has thrown six interceptions already and will be especially vulnerable to Micah Parsons and the Dallas pass rush.
Cash Game Sample Lineup
Using some of the players listed above, you could construct a roster that looks something like this. However, keep in mind, that this is just a suggested build and could change drastically by the time the games kick off on Sunday. You should come to your own conclusions and build a cash game roster that suits the players you prefer and your style of build. I really want to find a way to pay up for Cooper Kupp in this lineup, so I might sacrifice some off of CeeDee Lamb and Chris Godwin to get it done.
