Thursday Night Football Preview
Line: Denver Broncos (-3.5) | O/U 42.5
Week 5 is upon us, and for the debut game of the week, we have a matchup between two teams that have underperformed on their lofty preseason expectations. For this week’s edition of Thursday Night Football, the Indianapolis Colts will be making a trip to Mile High Stadium to take on the Denver Broncos.
Team Breakdowns
Each of these teams has had its fair share of disappointment just four weeks into the season. The Colts were expected to be the far and away favorite to take the AFC South, but they’ve floundered thus far and the Jacksonville Jaguars appear to be a formidable team. The Broncos are in one of the toughest divisions in football, and despite plenty of major offseason additions, they look no better than they did a season ago. With each of these teams having its own sets of issues, the current line has the Broncos set as 3.5-point favorites for their head-to-head matchup.
The Colts:
So far, the Indianapolis Colts have been one of the stranger teams in the NFL this season. Through four weeks, they have a record of 1-2-1, with their only win coming from a Week 3 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Then, their two losses and their tie all came at the hands of their NFC South rivals in the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans.
On defense, the Colts have been solid. They rank sixth in yards allowed per game, 10th in passing yards allowed per game, and sixth in rush yards allowed per game. Statistically, one of the bad aspects of this defense is their lack of turnovers as they have just three through four weeks.
Personnel-wise, they’re headlined by players like Stephon Gilmore and DeForest Buckner, but they’re currently missing the leader of this group. Three-time All-Pro linebacker, Shaquille Leonard, returned from a back injury in Week 4 but was quickly removed from the game due to a concussion, and a broken nose. Leonard has already been ruled out for Thursday’s matchup against Denver.
On offense, things could be better. The Colts acquired Matt Ryan through a trade in the offseason, and it was seen by many as a huge upgrade from 2021 starter, Carson Wentz. Unfortunately, the 14-year-vet hasn’t been much better. He’s fourth in the league in passing yards while also being in a four-way tie for second in total interceptions with five. The offensive line hasn’t been doing him many favors though, as Ryan has taken 15 sacks so far, good for fifth most in the NFL.
PFF passing grade this season:
Matt Ryan: 59.3
Carson Wentz: 58.8— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 4, 2022
As for their weapons, running back Jonathan Taylor seems to have taken a step back from his 2021 dominance. Third-year receiver, Michael Pittman Jr., has been solid as he averages just under 75 receiving yards per game. However, the rest has just been a hodge-podge of random productive tight-end performances.
The offense as a whole has been confusing, and they’re now facing a Broncos defense that has been productive and notoriously has a strong home advantage due to the air being so thin at a mile above sea level.
The Broncos:
The Broncos are a team that is very similar to the Colts in that nobody understands what the heck is going on with them. Through four weeks, they have a record of 2-2 with their ugly wins coming against the Houston Texans and the San Francisco 49ers.
Denver’s defense has been the saving grace of this team through four weeks. They currently rank fourth in yards allowed per game, and fifth in receiving yards allowed per game. They do appear to be weak in the run game though, as they rank 18th in rushing yards allowed per game.
While they have been stable on the stat sheet, the stars of this group have been dropping like flies. They’re currently missing their star safety Justin Simmons, and they have just lost their star outside linebacker Randy Gregory for at least the next four weeks to a knee injury. They still have their solid cornerback duo of Patrick Surtain II and Ronald Darby, Bradley Chubb is still there coming off the edge, and Barron Browning will look to pick up where Gregory left off at OLB.
The Broncos’ offense has been hard to watch. Nathaniel Hackett’s playcalling is a mystery, Russell Wilson has been much less productive than what was advertised, and the run game has been disappointing. They rank in the bottom half of the league in yards per game, passing yards per game, and rushing yards per game.
Broncos take the early lead!@DangeRussWilson ➡️ @SuttonCourtland
📺: #DENvsLV on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/qvpR1tCMp1 pic.twitter.com/fnPjClS3gk— NFL (@NFL) October 2, 2022
With their personnel, they still have two solid receivers in Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, but the rest of the pass catchers are looking like a mess at the moment. Javonte Williams is out for the year with a torn ACL and LCL that was suffered in Week 4. So now the Denver run game is set to rely on a combination of Melvin Gordon III, Mike Boone, and recently acquired running back Latavius Murray. With Gordon’s recent struggles with fumbling, there is the chance that Boone and Murray see more work than expected.
Despite health issues and their Week 4 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, the offense appeared to at least get a little more production. We’ll see if they can carry that momentum into their matchup with the Colts on Thursday.
Colts vs. Broncos Prediction
With this game being played in Denver, I’m favoring the Broncos to come out on top in this Thursday night matchup against the Colts. Believe it or not, the thin air comes into play a lot when away teams make the trip to Mile High Stadium. This is shown in the Broncos’ having their two wins of the season both coming at home.
The Colts and Broncos have each struggled on offense while being impressive on the defensive side of the ball. This game could easily be a defensive battle that ends up going Denver’s way as they have proven to have the more imposing group while also being much more accustomed to the atmosphere.
The Pick: Broncos -3.5
NFL DFS Showdown Flex Targets
WR – Courtland Sutton ($9,400)
Courtland Sutton has been by far the most productive player on the offensive side for the Broncos. The fifth-year receiver is off to the best start of his career and he doesn’t appear to be slowing down as he’s currently seventh in the league in receiving yards. Also, the Colts currently rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA against number one wide receivers. Sutton could be in for a huge day against a defense that can easily be exploited from that spot.
WR – Alec Pierce ($5,400)
Alec Pierce has been an interesting rookie receiver that has produced whenever he’s been given the opportunity. In Week 4, he didn’t even see a target in the first half, but he finished the game with four receptions for 80 yards. This could be the week we see Pierce elevate from that WR3 role to move past Parris Campbell and see more snaps as WR2 in this Colts offense. With that being a possibility, the rookie could be a solid value at $5,400.
RB – Nyheim Hines ($6,800)
Jonathan Taylor was recently reported to be ruled out of this upcoming matchup. Without the workhorse running back available, Nyheim Hines will likely be valuable as a flex option on this slate. Hines usually has some speculative value as a pass catcher, but with a large number of touches opening up, he offers a lot of potential this week. Against a Denver run defense that just allowed 175 total yards to Josh Jacobs, Nyheim Hines should be considered in most DFS lineups on Thursday.
