Bradley Stalder Week 6 Fantasy Rankings
Entering Week 6 marks about one-third of the way through the fantasy season. It also requires fantasy managers to give a good look at themselves and their teams and ask, “Why is my team the record it is?” If you’re 5-0 or 4-1, were you lucky or do you have a juggernaut of a team? If you’re 3-2 or 2-3, which way do you think the chips will fall the next few games, along with bye weeks? And if you’re 1-4 or 0-5, how can you get creative to get back into this thing? One thing I have done in the past to pivot is trade laterally for players to stack. A few years back, after the Rams bye Week, I traded for Cooper Kupp, Jared Goff, Robert Woods, and picked up Tyler Higbee off waivers. I had already rostered Todd Gurley, and knew the new Sean McVay offense was primed for shootouts the second half of the season. Needless to say, super-stacking gained access to one team’s correlated fantasy success. If you’re looking to pivot to a super-stack and make a late-season run, consider the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While Tampa Bay’s bye is Week 11, there might still be a buy opportunity for this Bucs offense, especially with the return of Chris Godwin. Now onto the rankings.
I’ve found success so far in the Fantasy Pros Accuracy Rankings Contest. Last week, I finished 70th overall in the contest. Entering Week 6, I’m 21st overall in accuracy out of 211 fantasy rankers year-to-date, including 13th most accurate ranker for wide receivers.
Just a reminder that I also take part in advising FantasyData’s weekly Rankings. They’re an excellent resource for anyone looking to win their league along with their player projections and advanced metrics.
Follow me on this journey as I highlight a few players I want to be higher or lower than the consensus for Week 6.
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Higher Ranked QB
Jameis Winston– I’m back to drinking from the well with Winston here in Week 6. He’s been practicing Wednesday and Thursday after missing two games due to fractures in his back and an ankle injury. Ultimately Friday’s practice will be telling about Winston’s status; nevertheless, I’m more optimistic than my peers if he plays. Over his last 10 games, Winston has not fallen outside of the top-28 of Quarterbacks, including three top-7 weekly finishes during that time. The Bengals give up the 15th most pass yards to Quarterbacks per game, and are the 9th most advantageous Pass Grade differential per PFF. While Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are not trending toward being active Week 6, Chris Olave has taken positive steps in the concussion protocol, with the possibility of being active. Winston is the top Quarterback on the season with 11.4 Air Yards Per Attempt and has the highest passer rating vs. man coverage. The Bengals play man coverage at some of the highest rates in the league, so this is a formula for success if both Winston and Olave play. Winston will be no lower than QB19 for me, as long as he’s active.
Winston is the consensus QB29.
Lower Ranked QB
Aaron Rodgers– Rodgers’ pedestrian start to the 2022 season will continue in Green Bay Week 6 against the Jets. Rodgers hasn’t finished as a top-12 QB any week so far this season, hasn’t thrown for 260+ yards in a game, hasn’t thrown for more than 2 TDs in a game, and has 9 rushing yards thru his first five games. Rodgers is the QB24 in fantasy points per game, averaging 14.4 per contest. And the Jets shouldn’t be underestimated– they’ve allowed the 10th fewest passing yards and 12th fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson finished QB8, Jacoby Brissett the QB16, Joe Burrow QB5, Trubisky the QB34 before getting pulled, Kenny Pickett the QB18, and Skylar Thompson the QB32. So the Jets have taken advantage of broken offenses– and Green Bay has had its share of brokenness. From dropped passes to running the wrong routes to significant decreases in AJ Dillon’s role, the Packers lack upside weapons to access QB1 ceilings for Aaron Rodgers. This feels like, once again, Rodgers game managing and leaning on Aaron Jones in Lambeau. Rodgers is my QB16 for Week 6.
Rodgers is the consensus QB11.
Higher Ranked RB
Eno Benjamin– James Conner is not expected to play Sunday against Seattle. Darrel Williams also suffered an injury as well in Week 5, prompting the Arizona Cardinals to sign both Corey Clement and Ty’Son Williams to the practice squad. Eno Benjamin is left as the lone handcuff to take the reigns while both Conner and Wiliams are out. Benjamin does have an interesting profile. A former 7th round pick out of Arizona State, Benjamin rushed for over 1,000 yards and handled 250+ carries two straight seasons at Arizona State. He also handled 11%+ target shares both seasons as the lead back for the Sun Devils. Now he’s sat on the bench, patiently waiting for an opportunity to present itself. And Seattle poses as good of a matchup as there is in Week 6 for Benjamin to show what he’s made of. The Seahawks give up the 2nd most rush yards, the 7th most receiving yards, and 4th most fantasy points to running backs on the season. Javonte Williams finished as RB12, Jeff Wilson finished as RB15, Cordarrelle Patterson finished RB6, Jamaal Williams finished RB7, and while Taysom Hill finished as the TE1 rushing for 3 TDs Alvin Kamara also finished as the RB8 on the week. It’s hard to ignore that opportunity against Seattle. Eno Benjamin is my RB10 for Week 6.
Benjamin is the consensus RB20.
Lower Ranked RB
Cam Akers– There are two enormous problems for Cam Akers: usage and efficiency. Even after Week 1’s 18% snap share, Akers has not played over 50% snaps in any game this season. In Akers’ career where he plays 60% or more of the snaps, he averages 21 carries for 85 yards, 3 targets, 2 receptions, and 24 receiving yards. But so far this season Akers has averaged 30 yards on 10 carries, 1 target, and 3 receiving yards per game on only 36% of snaps. And there’s no reason to think that role will change in Week 6 against Carolina due to Akers’ inefficiency. On the surface, 2.96 yards per carry doesn’t paint the whole picture. His 2.90 true yards per carry is 67th among running backs, he’s 43rd with a 17% juke rate, and 53rd among running backs in yards created per touch. He’s simply not giving Coach Sean McVay reasons to put him on the field. Even though Akers is PFF’s 16th best pass-blocking RB (min. 8 PBLK snaps), his teammate Darrell Henderson is graded 10 points higher than Akers and ranks RB9. All in all, the market still hasn’t reacted harshly enough to the reality that Akers simply isn’t a useful fantasy piece. Akers hasn’t finished higher than RB30 so far this season. He’s my RB40 for Week 6.
Akers is the consensus RB29.
Higher Ranked WR
Isaiah McKenzie– If you remember the last time the Bills and Chiefs squared off, Gabriel Davis went off for four touchdowns. Now, it’s McKenzie’s turn. Isaiah McKenzie missed Week 5 due to a concussion but is cleared to play in Week 6. In his stead, Khalil Shakir played admirably on 70% of snaps, earning 5 targets & turning them into 3 receptions for 75 yards and a touchdown. McKenzie will slot right back in as the starting slot receiver for the Bills. Even in a part-time role earlier this season, McKenzie has finished as the WR10 and WR29 in Weeks 3 and 4, respectively. Now, with Jamison Crowder out with a broken ankle, we can project McKenzie’s role to be absolutely massive in this Bills offense. In the three games of McKenzie’s career where he’s played 85%+ snaps, he’s finished on average as the WR10, finishing no lower than WR18. His matchup against slot corner L’Jarius Sneed also seems favorable. Sneed’s been torched both by stars and scrubs from the slot so far, giving up big games to Chris Godwin and Greg Dortch. Among CBs with at least 100 slot snaps, Sneed’s given up the 5th highest NFL Passer Rating this season. If there’s an achilles heel to the Chief’s defense s, it’s Sneed’s coverage. Isaiah McKenzie will be at worst my WR30 this week.
McKenzie is the consensus WR48.
Lower Ranked WR
Mike Williams– Historically, Mike Williams has been one of the most boom-bust players of recent memory. Lately, though we’ve seen a concentrated target share directed Williams’ way due to the Keenan Allen hamstring injury that has kept Allen out for most of the season thus far. Williams is handling a 24% target share this season, a tad higher than his 21% share in 2021. Keenan Allen did get in a limited practice on Thursday, which is progress towards possibly playing on Monday. Coach Brandon Staley characterized Allen as “day-to-day.” So there’s risk with Williams that Allen does come back for the Monday night game. Even if Allen doesn’t return, there are other reasons for pessimism for Mike Williams in this matchup against Denver. The Broncos are allowing the 3rd fewest fantasy points, the third-fewest receiving yards at only 120 per game, and tied for the fewest receiving TDs allowed to the wide receiver position. I expect Williams to be shadowed by Patrick Surtain, who has limited Michael Pittman, Davante Adams, Brandon Aiyuk, and DK Metcalf so far this season. I have Mike Williams at WR20, and am willing to move him lower if we get more clarity on Keenan Allen’s status before the 1 PM Eastern games.
Williams is the consensus WR13.
Higher Ranked TE
Kyle Pitts– Pitts has practiced both Wednesday and Thursday after missing Week 5 due to a hamstring injury that cropped up practicing last week. It looks like he’s trending to play Week 6. Pitts may be the TE23 in fantasy points per game, but it’s only a matter of time before his talent wins out. He doesn’t have an easy matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, and yet has been the 6th highest PFF graded receiving TE (min. 15 targets). Even if he plays limited snaps in Week 6, all Pitts needs is one big play to make a day. Pitts leads all TEs in Yards per reception (min. 15 targets), ranks 2nd behind Travis Kelce with snaps played out wide, and 7th among TEs in yards per route run. Kyle Pitts is my TE8 for Week 6.
Pitts is the consensus TE17.
Lower Ranked TE
George Kittle– Perhaps one of the most under-the-radar busts so far this season has been George Kittle. Kittle missed weeks 1 & 2, and since returning has played 88%+ of snaps each week. However, he hasn’t scored more than 5.2 fantasy points in any game this season, not finishing higher than TE20 any week. Why is Kittle not producing like in seasons past? He’s been asked to block in Weeks 4 and 5 more than he did in Week 3, due to the absence of LT Trent Williams who’s been dealing with a high ankle sprain. Plus, as Jimmy Garroppolo didn’t have much of a preseason, it’s clear that there’s been a downgrade in production all around the 49ers offense. Williams is still expected to miss about 2-4 more weeks due to the injury. Better days are ahead for Kittle, and while the Falcons have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to TEs so far this season, the 49ers offense now seems to run through Deebo Samuel, Jeff Wilson, and Brandon Aiyuk. Kittle will be at best my TE12 this week.
Kittle is the consensus TE6.
