Bradley Stalder Fantasy Rankings for Week 7
The Christian McCaffrey trade from the Carolina Panthers to the San Francisco 49ers, dropping almost as suddenly as Taylor Swift’s new Midnight album, shook the fantasy world Thursday night kicking off Week 7. We may not know how CMC’s presence in the 49ers offense will impact other players like Deebo Samuel, Jeff Wilson, Elijah Mitchell, George Kittle, or Brandon Aiyuk, but there is one player who will stand to benefit: Jimmy Garappolo. For the rest of the season, Garappolo should be ranked close to the top-12 QB with the addition of CMC. However, I won’t significantly move Garappolo or any of the other 49ers Week 7 as it remains to be seen how much CMC will be integrated into the 49ers offense within 72 hours. Now onto the rankings.
I’ve continued to find success in the Fantasy Pros Accuracy Rankings Contest. Last week, I finished 64th overall in the contest. Entering Week 7, I’m 23rd overall in accuracy out of 211 fantasy rankers year-to-date, including 10th most accurate ranker for wide receivers.
Just a reminder that I also take part in advising FantasyData’s weekly Rankings. They’re an excellent resource for anyone looking to win their league along with their player projections and advanced metrics.
Follow me on this journey as I highlight a few players I want to be higher or lower than the consensus for Week 7.
Higher Ranked QB
Kenny Pickett– The first-round pick of the Pittsburgh Steelers got in full practices this week, indicating that he’s good to go for Sunday against the Miami Dolphins. In Pickett’s short career, he’s thrown for over 500 yards, scored three total TDs, and rushed for over 40 yards. These are respectable fantasy numbers for a rookie. He’s also been getting the balls accurately to his receivers. Pickett ranks 1st in catchable pass rate and deep ball catchable pass rate, 2nd in pressure completion percentage, 4th in deep ball accuracy rating, and 11th under pressure accuracy rating. And now he gets the Dolphins, who give up the 6th most fantasy points, 8th most pass TDs, 9th most pass yards, and 2nd most rush yards to quarterbacks. Given how the Miami offense is structured, Pittsburgh will likely have to be playing catch-up most of the game, which is a positive game script for Pickett’s fantasy prospects. Kenny Pickett is my QB16 for Week 7.
Pickett is the consensus QB24.
Lower Ranked QB
Trevor Lawrence – Zooming out, Lawrence’s performances have lacked consistency and predictability this year. While the Jags QB finished 4th at his position in fantasy points Week 6, he did so on 2 rushing TDs while only throwing for 165 yards on 22 attempts. The rush TDs are fluky; but what’s more concerning is that Lawrence has thrown for fewer than 175 yards in two of the last three games, while throwing no more than 23 passes in those two contests. While Lawrence has two top-4 finishes so far this season, he also has three finishes outside the top-20 of Quarterback. Bust games comprise a hefty sample of his fantasy output thus far. Now, moving to Week 7, the New York Giants give up the 11th fewest fantasy points and 8th fewest passing yards to quarterbacks– not exactly a formula for success. Julian Love, Fabian Moreau, and Adoree Jackson all project as difficult matchups against Jaguars wide receivers, which may limit the downfield passing upside for Lawrence. Lawrence has already struggled at deep passes, ranking 31st in deep ball completion percentage, 34th in deep ball accuracy, and 33rd in deep ball catchable pass rate. Finally, I don’t anticipate this game to be a slug fest, as Vegas projects only 43 game total points for this matchup. Lawrence falls to my QB17 on the week.
Lawrence is the consensus QB12
Higher Ranked RB
Jonathan Taylor – I never thought that Jonathan Taylor’s name would show up here. Taylor’s missed the last two games due to an ankle injury he suffered in his Week 4 matchup against Tennessee. Fast forward two weeks and Taylor faces that same Tennessee team that limited him to twenty carries, 1 reception, and 43 total yards. The Titans have allowed the 8th fewest fantasy points and 5th fewest rush attempts to running backs. And yet, it was only a month and a half ago that Taylor was drafted as a top-2 consensus player. The majority of Taylor’s season so far has fallen on the wrong side of variance. He’s still averaging 20 carries per game, 4 of which are RedZone carries, but what’s even more encouraging is that Taylor is running more routes. Taylor has run 20+ routes in three of four games thus far; in his first thirty-two games he only ran 20+ routes three times. Taylor is getting massively involved in the offense and doesn’t have much to show for it: only 1 total TD on the season. With Michael Pittman healthy, Alec Pierce taking a step forward, and Matt Ryan showing in Week 6 that he still has juice left to move the Colts offense downfield, Taylor is primed for a bounce-back game against the Titans in Week 7. Jonathan Taylor is my RB4 for Week 7.
Taylor is the consensus RB11.
Lower Ranked RB
Rhamondre Stevenson – With Damien Harris expected back, I think the consensus ranking is still hung over from Stevenson’s RB1 overall finish in Week 6. In the five games Stevenson has played at least 50% of snaps, but did play alongside Damien Harris, his average finish was RB22. Two such games he finished in the top-10, but two games he finished RB30 or worse. There’s not a wider range of outcomes for a running back with the type of workload we’ve seen from Stevenson over the last eighteen games. Stevenson has certainly shown efficient flashes: 4th in juke rate, 15th in yards created per touch, and 20th in breakaway run rate. Chicago has given up the 7th most fantasy points to the running back; however, they give up the 6th fewest receptions and 11th fewest receiving yards to running backs. The roles for Harris & Stevenson are stark: Stevenson has run 87 routes in 6 games while Harris has run 34 routes in 4+ games. Back to splitting the backfield in what projects as a positive game script for New England (NE -9), Stevenson comes in as my RB18 on the Week.
Stevenson is the consensus RB9.
Higher Ranked WR
Wan’Dale Robinson – It’s not just that Robinson is the healthiest wide receiver on the Giants. Nor is it that the Giants get the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 7. Robinson nearly doubled his snap share, more than doubled his routes run, and quadrupled his targets from his first to second game. The second round pick out of Kentucky has flown quietly under the radar during the offseason and start of the season as he dealt with a knee sprain from Week 1. Remember, he crushed SEC competition at Kentucky, commanding a 39% target share during his Junior year. Now, through his first two games, when he’s been on the field, Robinson has made his presence known. He’s been targeted at a 35.7% clip– granted on a small sample size. It is reasonable to think that with Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay expected to miss Week 7, Robinson’s usage will continue to increase. Getting Robinson up to 40% of snaps, running 15-20 routes gets Robinson to 5-7 targets from Daniel Jones. Robinson already earned 4 targets playing 22% of snaps. Robinson finished Week 6 as WR29 which was buoyed by a receiving TD. Offsetting the touchdown variance for Week 7, I projected an increased role for Robinson, getting him to the top-36 in my WR ranks this week.
Robinson is the consensus WR48.
Lower Ranked WR
Juju Smith-Schuster – The formula is perfect. Fade a player following a blow-up performance when facing a tough defense. The stars align. Juju Smith-Schuster gets the San Francisco 49ers, who allow the 5th fewest fantasy points and 3rd fewest TDs to wide receivers so far. Per PFF, Juju is projected to line up most against Charvarius Ward, the 3rd highest DEF graded CB in the NFL. And we’ve seen Juju struggle against difficult coverage. Against the Chargers Bryce Callahan, for instance, Juju was limited to 3 receptions on 3 targets for 10 total yards. Overall, it’s been an up-and-down season for Smith-Schuster who did just catch his first TD since Week 17 of 2020, but has only finished inside the top-34 of wide receivers once thus far. Juju hasn’t shown much upside, either. He’s WR113 (that’s not a type-o) in Deep Targets, WR55 in Air Yards Share, WR77 in Average Target Distance, and WR70 in target separation. These three data points indicate that Juju isn’t given the opportunity for big plays down the field– limiting his fantasy upside. Juju is a majority, but not every-down WR in the Chiefs offense as shown by his WR59 snap share. Don’t be fooled by Smith-Schuster– he’s merely a floor PPR FLEX consideration at best. I’m ranking Juju outside my top-36 of WRs for Week 7.
Smith-Schuster is the consensus WR27.
Higher Ranked TE
Gerald Everett – Everett is averaging 6 targets, 4 receptions, and 40 yards per game to go along with 2 TDs on the season. The Chargers face Seattle, who has given up massive points to TEs (yes, even Taysom Hill). But not including Taysom Hill’s major fantasy blow-up, just the starting TEs are averaging 4.5 receptions, 70 receiving yards, and 0.5 TDs on the season against Seattle, good enough for 12.3 fantasy points– which would finish between the TE3 and TE6 each week so far. Keenan Allen’s missed nearly the whole season and Everett has produced– 5th in TE targets, 8th in receiving yards, and 10th in air yards share among TEs. Allen is expected to miss Week 7’s matchup and Joshua Palmer is working through a new concussion protocol system, casting doubt on Palmer’s availability. The opportunity and matchup give me reasons to be bullish on Gerald Everett. He’s my TE3 behind Kelce and Andrews in Week 7.
Everett is the consensus TE8.
Lower Ranked TE
TJ Hockenson – Hopefully the bye week did wonders for Hockenson, as he finished as the TE46 against New England Week 5. His 1 reception for 6 yards on 4 target performance was his worst performance since Week 10 of 2021 where he finished with zero catches on 1 target playing 94% of snaps. I don’t think Hockenson plummets that far again, but in games where Amon-Ra St. Brown was healthy and active this year, Hockenson hasn’t finished inside the top-10 of TEs on any week. In fact, he’s finished outside TE20 three weeks. He’s simply not a first or second-read in this Detroit Lions offense. St. Brown is first in the pecking order, then Swift/Williams out of the backfield, then Hockenson. His TE5 is deceiving due to his massive fantasy score against the Seahawks (see above, Gerald Everett). Hockenson’s always had strong efficiency metrics, but just like all TEs outside of the highest tier, Hockenson does his disappearing acts from time to time. This week also poses a problem for Hockenson getting on the right track, as the Dallas Cowboys give up the 5th fewest fantasy points and 7th fewest receiving yards to opposing tight ends. With Amon-Ra St. Brown expected to be full-go having recovered from his ankle injury, lower your expectations for Hockenson in Week 7. He’s my TE16 for this week.
Hockenson is the consensus TE7.
