RB/WR Opportunity Breakdown For Week 7

#Commanders Week 6 RB Usage

– Brian Robinson: 47% snaps, 17 carries, 0 targets (60 yds, TD)
– Antonio Gibson: 28% snaps, 5 carries, 4 targets (53 yds)
– J.D. McKissic: 28% snaps, 2 carries, 3 targets (20 yds)

None are better than a flex option right now

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 14, 2022

Not only did Robinson dominate snaps played, but he also dominated the rushing workload capturing 60% of all Washington rushing attempts, while Gibson and McKissic shared 25% of the rushing attempts. Robinson wasn’t efficient with his 17 attempts, only turning them into 60 rushing yards on a bad 3.5 yards per attempt, but he did score a touchdown which allowed him to post a 14-point fantasy game. Through two games Robinson has yet to see a single target, while Gibson (mothballed in the running game) has seen four targets in back-to-back weeks, and McKissic has seen 11 targets over those same two weeks, so there’s reason for concern. If Robinson isn’t used in the passing attack he’ll be hard-pressed to produce fantasy-relevant weeks without rushing for a touchdown.

For the second week in a row Travis Etienne out-snapped James Robinson, though not as heavily as he did in Week 5.  

Travis Etienne played a season-high 53.3% snaps on Sunday. Etienne has out-targeted James Robinson 6-2 over the past two weeks (not a shock), but he’s also matched Robinson with 18 rushing attempts. It’s coming.

— Shane says (@ShaneIsTheWorst) October 10, 2022

Though Etienne saw just two targets this week, he did still out-target Robinson (one target), and though Robinson had 12 rushing attempts to 10 for Etienne was much more efficient going for 71 yards compared to 54 rushing yards for Robinson. Sunday marked the second consecutive week that Etienne averaged over 7.1 yards per carry, as Etienne continued to show his explosiveness. Etienne ranks 3rd on the season in yards created per attempt, with 4.59 per attempt compared to Robinson’s 2.18 yards per attempt (40th), and Etienne’s 9.3% breakaway rate (9.3%) is 8th highest at running back while Robinson again lags behind ranking 21st with a 4/9% breakaway rate. Even if a split backfield Etienne’s explosiveness, and target share make him the more desirable option in the Jacksonville backfield.

Matchups matter, and as a Fantasydata subscriber you have access to the tools to assist you when deciding whether to start or sit a player. You can search NFL Team Defenses Points Allowed by Position to determine how many fantasy points team defenses are allowing by position per game. Using this tool I looked up what five defenses are giving up the most fantasy points per game to the running back position, and I also added in their next three opponents. 

As you can see above two teams, the Cowboys and Dolphins, get to play two of these defenses twice in the next three weeks, meaning that those might be good weeks to start Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, or Raheem Mostert (or whoever is starting for the Dolphins in Weeks 8 and 9. In Week 7 based on the matchups, you might be able to start Kenyan Drake (facing the Cleveland Browns) if J.K. Dobbins is unable to work through his knee tightness to suit up this week, while Josh Jacobs (Texans), Elliott, D’Andre Swift (Cowboys), Ken Walker (Chargers) and Rhamondre Stevenson (Bears), all have juicy matchups this week as well. This is just one tool in the toolbox, but I refer to the fantasy points allowed tool frequently when looking for weekly streaming matchups. 

It’s obvious that Melvin Gordon has fallen out of the good graces of the Broncos coaching staff. Gordon played on just nine snaps this past week (15.5%) compared to Latavius Murray who lead the Broncos running backs with 27 snaps (46.6%), and was even behind Mike Boone who played on 21 snaps (36.2%). This is especially disconcerting considering that Murray wasn’t even on the roster two weeks ago. Gordon only totaled three opportunities (all rushing attempts) while Boone saw five opportunities, four of which were targets, while Murray secured 12 opportunities (11 rushing attempts). The backfield will seemingly be split between Murray (rushing work) and Boone (receiving work), but none of these backs is worth rostering unless one of them goes away.  

Receiving Options 

Despite a miserable Week 6, Geno Smith hasn’t totally tanked Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf’s fantasy production as many of us feared he would entering the 2022 season. Tyler Lockett is the WR21 averaging 14.4 fantasy points per game, and he still remains a deep threat as evidenced by  617 air yards which is 7th highest among wide receivers, while his 24.5% target share ranks 22nd. D.K. Metcalf may not be an elite option, but he is the WR27 scoring 13.1 points per game and checks in right behind Lockett with 611 air yards through six weeks and has the 14th highest target share among receivers with a 27.2% share. Though neither player is elite, they are still effective WR2/WR3 for your roster. 

Jakobi Meyers has continued to break out in 2022, and he’s scored no fewer than 10.0 fantasy points in any of his four games played this year and is now averaging 15.7 points per game on the season. If you like consistency then you’ll enjoy the fact that Meyers has been the Patriots leading target-getter in each of his four starts. He’s not only seeing volume, but Meyers is also being efficient with this volume as he ranks 2nd among all wide receivers with 3.27 yards per route run, and his 10.35 yards per target ranks 10th. Meyers is someone you hopefully picked up when we advised you to do so after Week 2. If you weren’t able to add him to your redraft rosters he’s a player to target in dynasty based on the upward trajectory of all his peripheral and fantasy scoring stats.

There were 12 tight ends who were targeted 16 or more times in the past three weeks. Among them are the usual suspects like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, etc., but there are a few unheralded players in the ranks as well. David Njoku continues his resurgence with 19 targets and a 17.4% total target share for Cleveland over the past three weeks, while Robert Tonyan’s Week 6 saw him secure 12 targets on his way to 18 targets over the past three weeks, Evan Engram has seen 17 targets, Gerald Everett 16, and Hunter Henry 16. Gerald Everett is a tight end to target as a streaming option this week, not only is his involvement over the past three weeks robust, but he also faces the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are far and away the worst defense against tight ends this year giving up 18.78 fantasy points per game, which is 6.5 more points than the next worst defense (Las Vegas).

If you’re looking for some reasons why Gabe Davis is able to produce despite a 13.9% target share, you could look at the fact he’s second in the league in air yards per reception with 30.5 air yards per reception, and also ranks second with 14.73 yards per target, while his 27.35 yards per reception leads the league. Davis is the rare wide receiver that really doesn’t need volume to produce because his efficiency is simply elite. If he ever falls into a situation where he sees elite volume as well to go along with his elite efficiency he could put up truly elite fantasy production.