Bradley Stalder Fantasy Rankings for Week 9
Week 9 is already off to a strong start in the Fantasy Pros Accuracy Rankings Contest . AJ Brown might have scored a TD against the Houston Texans, but his 13.9 fantasy points would’ve ranked as WR21 last week. I ranked Brown as WR12 despite his WR7 consensus. Only three rankers in a field of over 200 were lower than me on AJ Brown, while only 20 rankers were lower than me on Jalen Hurts. I kept Dallas Goedert at TE3, was +10 spots on Phillip Dorsett, was +10 spots on Chris Moore, but missed on the Houston Texans TE4 Teagan Quitoriano– though to be fair only 11 rankers even had him ranked. Overall, a successful Thursday Night Football for rankings.
Last week, I finished 117th overall in the contest. Entering Week 9, I’m 36th overall in accuracy out of 211 fantasy rankers year-to-date, including 12th most accurate ranker for wide receivers. As time is running out, I am starting to find myself rank more aggressively on players, trying to squeeze out every edge so that I can finish in the top-10 this season.
Just a reminder that I also take part in advising FantasyData’s weekly Rankings. They’re an excellent resource for anyone looking to win their league along with their player projections and advanced metrics.
Follow me on this journey as I highlight a few players I want to be higher or lower than the consensus for Week 9.
Higher Ranked QB
Trevor Lawrence – While the results of Andy Dalton last week weren’t satisfying, the process still worked out as he scored 17 fantasy points, threw for 2 TDs, and threw for 220 pass yards despite the Las Vegas Raiders doing nothing on offense to push the Saints into more aggressive play calling. I’m looking to target the Las Vegas Raiders defense against this week when Trevor Lawrence the Jags square up against them. The Raiders still allow 21.6 fantasy points per game to the QB position, and haven’t allowed fewer than 17 fantasy points, 2 pass TDs, and 220 pass yards . Elite finishes are also not uncommon for Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence has finished as a top-7 QB three times so far this season and a top-4 QB twice in eight games. Lawrence is a top-10 QB and a strong streaming option this week.
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Lawrence is the consensus QB14.
Lower-Ranked QB
Jared Goff – After starting the first four games of the season with two top-8 QB finishes, Jared Goff has cooled off significantly. Finishing on average as the QB24 over the last three weeks, Goff loses his safety valve TJ Hockenson in a trade with the Minnesota Vikings entering Week 9. Hockeson had commanded an 18% target share and was among the league leaders in RedZone targets. Now, Goff will have to trust either sophomore TE Brock Wright or rookie TE James Mitchell to block and catch. Not only has Goff been cold and now loses a key piece of the Lions offense, but he also faces a Packers team that only allows 12.4 fantasy points per game. Even the great Josh Allen in Week 8 was limited to only 20 fantasy points, a season-low by 5 fantasy points for the current fantasy QB1 overall. The Packers are one of the most complete defenses, and with the pace of their offense, it’s unlikely that this game results in a shootout. Goff is my QB22 on the week.
Goff is the consensus QB16.
Higher Ranked RB
Cordarrelle Patterson – Patterson has been designated to return and should not be forgotten about despite his IR stint. When Patterson was healthy for the first four weeks of the 2022 season, he was a top-4 RB weekly finisher twice. Granted, the Falcons have leaned on Caleb Huntley and Tyler Allgeier in Patterson’s absence, but the return of Patterson should relegate both players to TD-dependent RB3s moving forward. But it’s not just that Patterson has shown explosiveness nor is it that we’ve seen a top-5 ceiling this season, but also the matchup. The Falcons face off against the LA Chargers, who allow 26.7 fantasy points per game to the RB position which ranks among the most favorable matchups in the NFL. Finally, the Falcons have been one of the most favorable matchups against offenses this seasons, which may force the Falcons to lean on Pitts, London, and Patterson more to keep up offensively. As long as he’s active, Patterson will rank in the top-24 among running backs for me.
Patterson is the consensus RB55.
Lower-Ranked RB
James Robinson – Now that Robinson has gotten his feet wet for the New York Jets, it’s still not the week to plug him into your lineup. Robinson only played ~20% of snaps in Week 8, and hasn’t been given more than 12 carries since Week 3 when he was on the Jaguars. There’s not much of a reason to think that trend will change in Week 9. Despite facing New England in Week 8, Michael Carter gained 61 yards on 11 touches, including 7 targets solidifying his role as the lead back in the Jets backfield. Plus, this is a negative matchup for the Jets running backs in Week 9 against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are a bottom 13th percentile fantasy running back matchup, only allowing 16.9 fantasy points per game. As the RB2 on Green Bay in Week 8 against Buffalo, AJ Dillon was limited to 7 fantasy points on 11 total touches– with certainly limited upside. Robinson lands outside my top-48 of Running backs this
Robinson is the consensus RB36.
Higher Ranked WR
Chase Claypool – While an update on whether Claypool will be active is necessary, I’ve not heard any reason to suggest he won’t suit up for the Chicago Bears this week. Claypool is coming off a top-27 weekly finish in Week 8 where he went 4-45-1 on 6 targets. We’ve also recently seen a ceiling week back in Week 6 where Claypool caught 7 passes for 96 yards and a TD on 7 targets as well. On the season, Claypool is WR41 while running nearly all of his routes from the slot. While Darnell Mooney was leading all Bears WRs in slot targets, that may bump Claypool to the outside like how he ran most of his routes for the Steelers in 2021. Adding Claypool should continue to improve an already ascending Chicago Bears offense. Additinally, wtih the trades of Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn, the Bears defense may give up more points forcing the Bears offense into more aggressive drives leaning more on Justin Fields and the passing game. As long as Claypool is active, he’s a top-48 WR.
Claypool is the consensus WR76.
Lower-Ranked WR
Tyler Lockett – The old saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” And I’m putting it out there to be fooled by Tyler Lockett once again. Last week, Lockett faced a NY Giants coverage defense that limited him to 4-30 midway through the 4th quarter. That was until he broke off for a 33 yard TD on a busted coverage. Again, the process was right on Lockett in Week 8, but resulted in a tough beat. I’m willing to take that chance again in Week 9. The last time Lockett squared off against Arizona, he scored a measly 3 fantasy points and finished as the WR. Marco Wilson limited Lockett to 2 catches on 3 targets for only 11 yards and 79 air yards. Arizona has one of the toughest PFF coverage grades in the NFL, and a top-15 WR ranking feels aggressive. I have Lockett ranked outside the top-24 of WRs.
Lockett is the consensus WR14.
Higher Ranked TE
Tyler Higbee – It’s hard to get excited about TEs these days. Either they’ve been on bye weeks or have had chalk matchups, leaning into consensus. But Tyler Higbee is not to be slept on in Week 9. Cooper Kupp, the middle-of-the-field specialist and LA Rams receiving ace, suffered an ankle injury in Week 8 which may limit his effectiveness in entering Week 9. This may lead to more opportunity for Higbee, who plays nearly every snap, commands a 22% target share this season, and has 5 RedZone targets. Higbee’s been hit by the wrong side of variance in 2022, not scoring a TD yet on the season. However, if he scores a TD against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who give up 12.9 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs at a 90th percentile clip, Higbee could find himself in the elite tier of TE once again. Higbee is a top-5 TE option for me this week.
Higbee is the consensus TE8 .
Lower-Ranked TE
TJ Hockenson – With Irv Smith placed on the injured reserve list due to a sprained ankle, the Minnesota Vikings traded a 2nd and 3rd-round pick to the Detroit Lions in exchange for Hockenson and two future 4th round rookie picks. For the Vikings, it was an upgrade at the TE position. For the Lions, it was moving on from making a long-term contract extension for the former first-round TE. While I don’t anticipate much of a long-term change for Hockenson’s season-long value, his first week in a Vikings uniform may prove difficult. While I anticipate he’ll play majority of snaps at TE, getting a limited route tree may lower the ceiling for Hockenson. Additionally, the matchup versus the Washington Commander isn’t an easy one, as Washington allows the fewest fantasy points to the Tight End position on the season, at a clip of less than 5 points per game. And it’s not as though Hockenson is a stranger to bust games– he’s finished outside the top-20 of TEs in three of his six contests so far. Hockenson will be no higher than my TE15 this week.
Hockenson is the consensus TE12 .
