FantasyData’s Advanced Metrics: Week 5

Using Advanced Metrics for Fantasy Success

With one-quarter of the 2020 season in the books for most teams, we have a pretty good feel for what players are going to be true difference makers and who isn’t likely to pan out. While many different factors can change that line of thinking, especially in the middle of an unpredictable pandemic, looking beyond the box score can really help us find those players to target. 

FantasyData provides much of the integral research and data that powers many of the industry’s top sites and has resulted in Best Data Provider accolades from the FSGA. With access to that kind of data, fantasy managers can better predict breakouts and put themselves in a better position to win.

Using FantasyData’s Advanced Efficiency Metrics, here are some of the interesting takeaways from the first four weeks of the season, and how fantasy fanatics can use that data to gain an edge this season. 

Quarterbacks

The biggest concern for Josh Allen coming out of small-school Wyoming was accuracy, which rarely improves once a player advances through college and into the pros. Allen only completed 56.2% of is throws withe the Cowboys and had a similar completion rate through his first two NFL campaigns. But in his third season, Allen has jumped up over 70% and boasts a 12-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. And these aren’t gimmie throws either, Allen ranks second in the league with 888 air yards and leads the NFL in air yards per attempt (6.0). There is a huge correlation between deep-ball success and winning in the NFL and Allen ranks third with a 64.7% deep ball completion rate. This explosion in efficiency has been quite surprising, and according to FantasyData’s metrics, Allen looks like the real deal. 

Is Philip Rivers an overlooked value? Rivers enters Week 5 as the lowly QB28 but many of his numbers are actually up from last season and his career averages. Rivers’ QB rating is up nearly 10 points and his 8.1 yards per attempt is well above his career average. He’s even leading the entire NFL in Accuracy Rating, which grades quarterbacks on a per-throw basis scale of 1-4. So what’s holding Rivers back? Indy’s top-ranked defense, which is keeping scoring down and leading the Colts calling a lot of running plays while nursing second-half leads. The receiving corps is also quite banged up, including tight end. While Rivers is best left on the bench, for now, the Colts have a pretty favorable schedule and Rivers’ efficiency makes him a solid buy-low candidate who could go on a nice month-long run as the season progresses. 

Turnovers are killers and quarterbacks who throw a ton of interceptions generally find themselves holding a clipboard. But not interceptions are the QBs fault..tipped passes, drops, and batted balls are chalked up as INTs but are usually just bad luck. Conversely, defensive backs often fail to intercept plenty of passes that should result in an interception. FantasyData’s Interceptable Passes charts those risky throws that should have resulted in a turnover. Through Week 4, Ben Roethlisberger, Deshaun Watson, and Aaron Rodgers have only thrown 2 interceptable balls apiece, while Gardner Minshew leads the league with 16, followed by Carson Wentz (14), Matthew Stafford {12), and Ryan Fitzpatrick (12.) 

Running Backs

The best way for a running back to separate himself from the competition is to do just that–separate himself from the competition. Eric Moody’s weekly dive into evaded tackles does a good job of identifying backs that excel in breaking free, while juke rate takes another look at backs athletic enough to avoid hits in the first place. Counting all running backs with 20+ attempts, Dalvin Cook leads the way with an astonishing 48.8% juke rate. That means Cooks is able to avoid a defender on nearly half of his carries. No surprise when you consider Cook has been one of the best backs in the league since entering the NFL. Christian McCaffrey, who could be close to returning, still ranks second at 45.5%, followed by Kareem Hunt at 44.8%. With Nick Chubb now slated to miss a substantial portion of the 2020 season, Hunt looks like a potential league winner. 

It’s too bad we won’t see Chubb for two months, he was leading the NFL in breakaway runs, which are runs of 15+ yards. 12.3% of Chubb’s attempts did that and are a huge reason why Chubb was averaging a whopping 5.9 yards per carry. Surprisingly, Carolina’s Mike Davis now ranks second in the league with a 10.0% breakaway rate. Davis has done an admirable job filling that CMC role, but his days with that job are numbered. Other standouts in breakaway runs include Jerick McKinnon (8.8%), Melvin Gordon (7.7%), Adrian Peterson (7.7%), and Sony Michel (7.7%), who has looked really good in limited action. 

Opportunity Share tells us the total number of running back carries or targets that a running back commands from his team’s backfield. Three-down, workhorse running backs will have a higher opportunity share than backs who leave the field on third down or are part of a committee backfield. Keep an eye on Melvin Gordon, who could begin to lose touches to the returning Phillip Lindsay, and David Johnson, who just lost his head coach who paid 5-times his true value in a ridiculous trade. 

Wide Receivers

Opportunity is one of the most important factors that can help you make tough lineup decisions. No player is going to be successful as a fantasy starter if he’s not being given enough chances to make an impact. For wideouts, targets are the biggest indicator of success, and target share tells us just how much a team’s quarterback is relying on his favorite wideout. Elite wide receivers can command 20% or more of a team’s total targets and through four weeks, we actually have four players above the 30% threshold. Keenan Allen leads the way with a 36.8% target share. Allen has thrived with Justin Herbert under center, averaging 13.3 targets per game since the first-round rookie took over at quarterback. No surprise to see DeAndre Hopkins rank second at 34.3%, followed by Adam Thielen (32.6%), and Jamison Crowder, who has racked up a 30.3% opportunity share in just two starts. Ranking fifth is Odell Beckham Jr., who finally looked like his old self last week against a haggard Dallas secondary. 

This Justin Jefferson kid might be pretty good. After opening the season behind Bisi Johnson and running 83% of his routes in Minnesota’s first two games out of the slot, Jefferson took over starting perimeter duties and has looked a lot like Stefon Diggs in the Vikings’ past two contests. Jefferson’s 9/175/1 line against the Titans and 5/103/0 effort last week in Houston already stand out, but when you look at how Jefferson is dominating as a big-play, downfield threat, you get a clearer picture of a potential future WR1.

Drops are a sure-fire way for a wideout to find himself standing on the sidelines. With enough volume, drops will add up, even for elite wide receivers. But players who manage to have the highest drop rate tend to be the least reliable pass-catchers. Here are the WR leaders in drop rate through Week 4

Tight Ends

Tight ends don’t generally offer the scoring upside of wide receivers but the lack of depth at the position makes the elite, top-5 tight ends arguably the most valuable asset in fantasy football. When broken down into simple fantasy points per target, the tight end leaderboard tells an interesting story. After his explosive Week 4 performance, Roberty Tonyan is now the No. 1 ranked tight end with 4.31 fantasy points per target. Tonyan only has 14 targets, so expect that figure to drop, but he’s shown enough playmaking ability to warrant TE1 considerations once Green Bay emerges from their Week 5 bye.

Mo Alie-Cox has one fewer target (13) but still boasts a solid 3.26 fantasy points per target average, which is good enough for second. Tyler Higbee (3.1), Mark Andrews (2.63), and George Kittle (2.47) round out the top-5. 

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