Fantasy Football Advanced Metrics
This article will tell you about how to identify undervalued running backs using evaded tackles. The quality of offensive line play cannot entirely dictate a team’s running game. A running back needs to be able to create yards for himself. Backs must have the balance to withstand contact from defenders or make them miss while staying on course of runs. Our evaded tackles metric is one way to quantify that. A high number of top fantasy running backs last seasons excelled in making defenders miss. These are four running backs who should be on your radar.
Quick Links
David Montgomery
Montgomery ranks 12th in evaded tackles with 15 heading into Week 4. Last season he finished the season ranked 13 with 75. Last season Montgomery averaged 17.3 opportunities per game. The irony is that so far in 2020 he’s averaged exactly the same number of opportunities per game so far this season.
72.3 percent of David Montgomery’s rushing yards this season have come after initial contact. Among RBs with 30+ rushes, that ranks 2nd in the NFL behind Kareem Hunt (per SportRadar).
In 2019, Montgomery ranked 33rd in YAC percentage. The second-year RB is off to a great start.
— Kevin Fishbain (@kfishbain) September 29, 2020
The great news is that Montgomery has been efficient this season and is in line for a larger workload with the Bears for the remainder of the season with Tarik Cohen out for the season due to a torn ACL. Chicago has a very favorable schedule for the rest of the season, especially Week 9 on with games against the Titans, Vikings, Packers, Lions, Texans, and Jaguars.
Derrick Henry
The only other running back with more evaded tackles than Henry (27) this season is Ezekiel Elliott (28). The Titans running back finished last season with the seventh most evaded tackles. Henry leads all running backs in total opportunities with 90. He has the fourth-highest expected points (67.8), but the lowest total fantasy points over expectation. As a gentle reminder, expected points allow us to transform raw opportunity, such as rushing attempts and targets, directly into fantasy points. In contrast, fantasy points over expectation is a catch-all efficiency metric that accounts for both yards and touchdowns in a single number.
Derrick Henry FLEW in the end zone 👀 @KingHenry_2 @Titans pic.twitter.com/sH47fb2kSr
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) September 27, 2020
Henry has only finished as an RB1 in one out of three games this season. He’s an intriguing player to target in trades because of his favorable upcoming schedule. Henry’s special is particularly enticing from Week 13 on with games against the Browns, Jaguars, Lions, Packers, and Texans.
Joe Mixon
Mixon led all running backs last season with 103 evaded tackles. He ranked 10th with 18 evaded tackles entering Week 4. Mixon’s only averaged around 10 PPR fantasy points per game this season but has averaged 20.3 opportunities with only three of those being targets. This is concerning considering the Bengals have passed the football nearly 70 percent of the time this season.
Joe Burrow said they’re putting an emphasis on getting the run game going. “The O-Line takes that to heart, Joe (Mixon) takes that to heart… we’re trying to get that fixed.”
— Marisa Contipelli (@BengalsMarisa) September 30, 2020
Mixon is an intriguing trade target because he displayed last season that he could rise above mediocre offensive line play and be productive in fantasy. It may take some time for all aspects of the Bengals offense to gel with rookie quarterback Joe Burrow under center. The reality is that few running backs are being provided the number of opportunities that Mixon is seeing, making him an interesting trade target. He has a plus matchup in Week 4 against the Jaguars defense.
David Johnson
Johnson currently ranks 18th with 10 evaded tackles. The only other backs who have a higher opportunity share than Johnson (85.2%) are Derrick Henry (90%) and Ezekiel Elliot (90%). Johnson opened the season with a 20 point PPR performance against the Chiefs but struggled against the Ravens and Steelers in Week 2 and 3. Many are down on him, which creates a buying opportunity. It would be nice to see the Texans use him more as a receiver out of the backfield in the coming weeks.
David Johnson 91.4% of HOU snaps (148 of 162)
Gets MIN run D in Week 4
— Jake Ciely (@allinkid) September 28, 2020
Johnson has a favorable schedule with matchups against the Vikings, Jaguars, Titans, Packers, Browns, and Lions.
Conclusion
FantasyData has a wealth of statistical information available to you at your fingertips. Do you ever wonder how to weave all of the information together to make informed decisions for your fantasy football team? That’s the purpose behind the Advanced Metrics series that I’m writing this season. One way to approach any decision in fantasy football is to analyze two things. The first one revolves around the narrative. What are NFL Insiders, beat writers, and coaches saying. The second one revolves around the statistics, metrics, and other data. Take a moment to think of a piano. You can play music with one hand, but the music is even better once you use both hands. It would help if you had the same mindset when it comes to managing your fantasy football team. If you have additional questions, you can also refer to my fantasy football rankings or, better yet, reach out to me on Twitter for an immediate response (@EricNMoody). Thanks for reading, and please sign up for FantasyData Premium.
