Bold NFL Predictions for Week 6
Last week was an off week for my predictions. As it turns out, Zach Wilson did not channel Aaron Rodgers, although the Jets did win at Denver. Jake Ferguson’s three catches for 28 yards were a bit shy of the two-touchdown day I predicted. And Christian McCaffrey extended his touchdown streak against the Cowboys in spite of my pronouncement that he would not score. However, I did get some right. I mean, if we’re giving half-credit and grading on a curve, then I’ll take the win for my Michael Thomas take. He didn’t score a TD, but he had led the team in receptions and yards. Lastly, I foretold of a huge win for the Dolphins against the Giants (bold, I know), but they didn’t score 50 points, like I said they would. I guess that’s a loss, but I feel like they could’ve scored 50 if they really wanted to.
Anyway, I’m looking forward to Week 6 and a brand new set of bold projections that, historically speaking, have about a 34% chance of being correct.
Quick Links
- Fantasy Rankings
- Player Projections
- Fantasy Football Stats
- Advanced Player Metrics
- Fantasy Football News
- NFL Optimizer
- DFS Stacking Tool
Logan’s Run
The Washington Commanders head to Atlanta this week to take on the Falcons. The Commanders are in the midst of a three game losing streak, while Atlanta is 3-0 at home. As a road underdog, Washington is likely to go pass-heavy in this game. This bodes well for Logan Thomas, who caught nine passes and a touchdown on 11 targets last week. It was an uptick in usage for Thomas who, prior to that game, was averaging just three catches per game. However, Logan is quietly putting together a very nice season. His 11.6 PPR points per game is sixth best in the league. The Falcons are 31st in allowing fantasy points to tight ends. Mix all this together and it’s a recipe for a big game for Thomas. In fact, I think he goes off again this week and finishes as a top three TE.
Dak Attack
Cowboys fans are not happy with the Dallas offense and, more specifically, the play of Dak Prescott. But is it really his fault or is it the playcalling of Mike McCarthy that’s holding Presoctt back? Dak’s accuracy has been very good and he’s not turning the ball over nearly as much as he did last year. That’s mostly because of McCarthy and his west-coast offense. But at what cost? Dallas scoring remains consistent with last season, but the defense has played a big role in that, scoring three touchdowns. Their passing yards have decreased by 20 yards per game and their yards per play are a half yard below 2022.
Enter the Los Angeles Chargers, the team giving up the most passing yards in the league at nearly 300 yards per game. This is the best “get right” game the Cowboys could ask for right now. If McCarthy doesn’t open up the offense against the Chargers, then he never will. I think Prescott has a lot of potential to blow up in this game and I could easily see him passing for his first 300 yard game of the season, along with two touchdowns.
Chasing 200
Ja’Marr Chase had an amazing game against the Cardinals last week, catching 15 passes for 192 yards and three touchdowns. Those types of games are rare, and for some players, a once-in-a-lifetime event. For Chase, it’s not that uncommon to have huge days, although this one was special, to be sure. However, the Bengals face the Seattle Seahawks this week and the opportunity is there for Chase to have another blow up game.
The Seahawks are one of the worst teams at giving up fantasy points to wide receivers. Only the Vikings and Chargers give up more. With Tee Higgins questionable for Sunday’s game, and probably limited if he does play, Chase is in line for even more opportunities. I doubt Chase will score 52 PPR fantasy points again this week, but I do think he has a legitimate shot at 200 receiving yards against Seattle.
Alexander the Great
Count me among those who thought Alexander Mattison would have had a more productive season up to this point. He’s RB-19 though five weeks, which isn’t terrible, but I was looking for low-end RB1 production from him. He’s been boom-or-bust in rushing yards each week, with three week under 35 yards and two weeks with 90 or more. However, he has yet to score a touchdown this season.
This week, the Vikings visit Chicago, who has been pretty stout against the run. They’re giving up fewer than 100 rushing yards per game. One reason for that is their poor passing defense, which ranks 31st in the league. Teams haven’t had to run against the Bears because it’s so easy to exploit their weak secondary. However, that becomes less easy when arguably the best wide receiver on the planet (Justin Jefferson) is out. Minnesota is a pass-heavy team, throwing the ball 70% of the time, but with Jefferson inactive, I think the Vikings will take to the ground a bit more. This is a winnable game for them and a game that they need if they are to have any chance of salvaging the season. I look for the Vikings to slow this game down, try to extend plays on offense and win the time of possession game. I could see Mattison getting 20 carries, rushing for 100 yards and scoring his first touchdown of the season.
Jets Takeoff over Philadelphia
One team is 5-0, went to the Super Bowl last year, and is near the top of every analyst’s NFL team rankings. The other team has Zach Wilson as their quarterback. It’s a mismatch any way you look at it. Statistically, the Eagles outperform the Jets in nearly every predictive category; yards per play, points per play, third down conversions, and red zone scoring. On defense, the Jets match up a little better, particularly in opponent red zone scoring, where New York ranks third overall. Can the Jets stop the Eagles on offense? I think there’s reason to believe they can. The Vegas total is only 41, so neither team is expected to score a lot points. Turnover could be critical in this game and the Jets excel at takeaways, so I think it’s very possible they can keep the Philly offense contained.
As for New York’s offense, well, they’re improving. Over the last two games, they’re averaging 371 yards, which would be good for seventh most in the league. The Jets have created plays that cater to Wilson’s strengths and it’s working. They’re never going to win in a shootout, but, much like they did in Week 1 against Buffalo, if they can keep the game low scoring and close, they have a realistic shot to beat anyone. I think the Eagles have slightly overperformed this year. My model has them as the luckiest team in the league this year. I think their luck will run out Sunday and the Jets will come out with an upset win.
