Golf Betting Tips and Picks
We have reached a brand new PGA Tour season, welcome to the 2022-2023 campaign! It all begins in Napa, California, this week for the 16th edition of this event and the 2nd of the Fortinet Championship. We have a full 156-player field in action this week, and the top 65 players plus ties after round 2 on Friday will move on to play the weekend rounds.
There’s $8M to be won this week, the winner gets $1.44M and also collects 500 FedEx Cup points. Silverado Resort and Spa (North Course) is 7,166 yards in length, is a par 72, and the greens are a combination of bentgrass and poa annua. The average winning score at this tournament over the last decade is -16.7, so expect something around this number again this week. Place bets on golfers who are long off the tee, are solid off the tee, putt well, are accurate from the tee blocks, and have a strong approach game.
Increase your odds of winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions that are relevant to the Fortinet Championship this week:
1. Which players have the most top 10’s over their last five starts? No player has more than 2 – these golfers include Taylor Pendrith, Tom Hoge, Trey Mullinax, Taylor Moore, Mark Hubbard, Brandon Wu, and Chesson Hadley.
2. Which players have the most top 10’s at the Fortinet Championship over the last five years? Interestingly enough, there is only one golfer who has 2 and that’s Nick Taylor. Several players have one and over the last six years, Brendan Steele has won here two times. Course history isn’t very sticky this week, so roll with recent form more than usual.
3. Can anyone win this week? I believe so since there aren’t any superstars in the field, and there are a bunch of hungry, young players who could really break out this season and it could start this week.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, top 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
5 Players That I’m Absolutely Betting
Taylor Pendrith (+3000) – If I had to pick just one player to win I would go with Pendrith as his long and strong ball-striking game is exactly what I’m looking for in players this week. He has two top 8’s in his last four starts including a T8 at the BMW Championship in a loaded field, and he has finished worse than T13 only once in his last seven starts. I’ll be betting Taylor every which way this week and you should be on him also.
Maverick McNealy (+2200) – The Napa kid relies on his putter too much, but he plays well in his home State and had a runner-up here a year ago thanks to gaining strokes across the board and 12.15 total. He may be looking to take care of unfinished business here and seems like a good target despite his lackluster approach game. I think you can bet him to win, to finish top 10, and top 20, but don’t lay down a big pile of cash on an outright wager.
Cameron Davis (+2200) – Davis really took off last season with several top 10’s including a T3 at the RBC Heritage, and his stats look quite appealing as well. He had a top 20 here four years ago and his golf game is miles better now, so he can certainly get into the top 10 this time around – I like him as a top 10 and 20 bet this week.
Corey Conners (+1600) – He hasn’t played here in three years but rattled off a T13 in 2019, and he consistently plays well thanks to a strong ball-striking attack. Here’s to hoping that he will be better this season around the green and with his putter, but I won’t hold my breath. I like him as a top 5, top 10, and top 20 bet this week.
Max Homa (+1000) – Homa should be feeling pretty good about himself as he enters this week looking to defend his title from 2021 as he had a T5 in the Tour Championship where he pretty much gained strokes across the board. He also won last May at the Wells Fargo Championship, had a T5 at the Memorial Tournament, and also had a T23 at the BMW Championship in the second leg of the playoffs. He tends to play well in Cali, and I can get behind him to finish top 10 or top 20 this week on my betting card.
5 Players That I Might Bet
Brendan Steele (+4500) – The only two-time winner of this tournament is back for more this week, and comes in playing fairly well no thanks to his weak short game. He’s a great ball-striker though and knows this course extremely well, so I have confidence in betting him this week. I’ll likely bet him to finish top 20 and top 40, but I won’t decide just yet.
Taylor Montgomery (+5000) – I don’t know much about him but he had 9 top 10’s last season on the KFT in 18 starts, so he has my attention as he paves his way into the PGA Tour. I’ll likely bet him to finish top 40, but may not go much harder than that before seeing how he transitions into the best golf tour in the world.
Justin Suh (+6000) – Suh won the KFT Championship earlier this month, and has five top 9’s over his last six KFT starts. He’s another unpredictable golfer this week, but I will likely spring for a top 40 wager before Thursday morning rolls around.
Wyndham Clark (+6500) – He can pound a long ball and is pretty good with his short game also, so he holds some appeal to me this week. He had a T8 three starts ago at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and I really like what he did at the FedEx St. Jude Championship finishing T28. I might get to a top 20 bet on Clark this week, or a top 40 if I’m feeling a tad gun shy.
Carl Yuan (+10000) – He’s a wild card but played well on the KFT last season and is coming off a T5 at the championship event thanks to his 22 birdies. This may be a player that I’ll wait on before risking money on him, but he’s on my radar now and I’ll be watching to see how he does this week and moving forward.
5 Players That I Won’t Bet
Harris English (+15000) – English has missed three weekends in a row and his stats are concerning as he hasn’t done anything well lately. He hasn’t really done too much at this event either and hasn’t competed here since 2019, so I have zero interest in Harris’ services this week.
John Huh (+13000) – We haven’t seen much of Hugh lately and he withdrew from the first leg of the playoffs last season, so I’m not too confident in him right now. He had a T2 at the Wyndham Championship but other than that, over his last seven starts, he has three missed cuts, a withdraw, a T55, and a T57 – nothing much to write home about here.
Luke List (+9000) – List has missed four cuts in his last five starts and his made cut resulted in a T61 at the BMW Championship in a field of 70 golfers. He has been absolutely atrocious with his short game for a while now, and lost 9.39 strokes in the stat category in his most recent start.
C.T. Pan (+13000) – Pan had a decent stretch last season but has two missed cuts and a withdraw over his last three starts, and while he did finish T6 here last year, he had a T61 two years ago and a missed cut three years ago – expect more of the same this week.
Webb Simpson (+6500) – Here’s another player who has been missing a ton of cuts recently with three in his last five starts, he withdrew in his signature tournament – the Wyndham Championship, and had a T69 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic three starts ago in a weak field. Simpson is well past his prime and his career is starting to wind down more and more with every passing event.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
