Free Golf Betting Tips
The PGA Tour remains in Hawaii but shifts from Kapalua to Honolulu for the first full-field tournament of the year – the Sony Open in Hawaii. This week sees a 144 player field with some decent talent at the top and depth throughout for an event that is now in its 66th year. It will be nice to have a cut line back this week even though it is kind of nice to have a guaranteed 432 holes worth of fantasy points per lineup in non-cut events like we experienced last week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
The 2021 edition of the Sony Open in Hawaii has a total purse of $6.6M, the winner gets a nice bump to his bank account of $1.188M, and there are 500 FedEx Cup points that go to the victor as well. This tournament has always seen the Waialea Country Club as its host, it reaches just 7,044 yards, is a par 70, and the greens are the same as last week – bermudagrass. Look for golfers who can pile up the birdies, are strong with their approach to greens, are accurate off the tee to stay on fairways, par 4 scoring is important, and players who can scramble around greens tend to do well here too. Increase your confidence in each one of your golf bets by using these valuable tools and analytics. The winning score over the past decade at this event, on average, is -19, so players who can go low are valuable this week.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
30 to 1 and lower
Webb Simpson (11 to 1) – Simpson hasn’t won this tournament before but the course really fits his eye and he has done quite well here in the past with top 5’s including in his last two times played here with a solo 3rd here a year ago and a T4 three years ago. I’m not quite sure I would bet him outright to win, but I think a top 5 or a top 10 would be quite safe which would net you a 25% profit margin. Simpson was T8 at the U.S. Open and T10 at the Masters – he’s elite and certainly stands out by a lot from most others in this tournament.
Collin Morikawa (15 to 1) – Morikawa has the heart of a champion and has already won a major tournament (the PGA Championship last year in 2020) at the tender age of 23. He’s coming into this event quite hot this week too as he locked up a T7 last week at the Tournament of Champions and could have won it all had he not stumbled in the final round with a par, 73. He has family ties to Hawaii, has been to the state several times in his life, and was T21 last year in his rookie appearance – expect a top 10 with upside to win this week. If I was going to do a single, outright wager I would put it on Morikawa to win it all come Sunday.
Avoid: Hideki Matsuyama ( to 1) – I sort of like all of the players in this range so it was hard to come up with one to avoid but I have to go with Matsuyama who was god awful in putting last week and only has one top 10 so far this season in 7 starts with one missed cut. He has been average to mediocre at this event over the years and I don’t see a top 10 for him this week, so I would advise to let others bet him and waste their money instead.
Odds Available at DraftKings Sportsbook
31 to 1 – 60 to 1
Ryan Palmer (33 to 1) – Palmer has really caught steam over his past two starts with two straight T4’s, he was T4 at this event a year ago, plus he won it all back in 2010, so he knows what it takes to win on this track. I think I would be comfortable with a top 5 (6 to 1) or a top 10 (2.75 to 1) bet on him as he’s locked in right now and you can profit on that this week.
Avoid: Billy Horschel (35 to 1) – It’s not that Horschel is a bad golfer, it’s just that he doesn’t have a ton of top 10’s recently, outside of his T5 last month in Mexico. He could win some gambler’s money this week if he finishes top 20 perhaps, but he was a bit inconsistent last week to finish T24 and he’s not a player I’ll be backing this week.
61 to 1 – 100 to 1
Charles Howell III (66 to 1) – Howell III is a real stud muffin at this event with ten top 10’s in 19 starts here, that’s better than 50% of the time which is really quite amazing when you think about it. His best finish of the season was in his most recent start last month in Mexico where he was T23, and it’s interesting that he went 69-67-65 after opening with a 72 so he was clearly building momentum after his lackluster round one. I think it’s better than 50/50 that you win by betting him for a top 10 finish this week and that payout is 4.5 to 1 which is quite enticing to me.
Sebastian Munoz (66 to 1) – Munoz had a slow start last week with a two-over 75 on Thursday in the opening round, but the rest of the way he was 2nd in the field from a scoring perspective going 66-67-68 which was 18 under par. Munoz only has one top 10 so far this season but he had two top 8’s in the final two playoff events last season, and I think he can heat up like that again shortly.
Avoid: Brandt Snedeker (100 to 1) – Snedeker just isn’t playing very good golf these days and that has been the case for many months now. His best finish so far this season is a T17 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and that was in a subpar field. He has a decent record at this tournament but that’s when his golf game was in much better shape, and while he could have a top 20 or 30 this week, that’s not really going to move the needle and I don’t think it’s worth the risk either.
101 to 1 and higher
Doug Ghim (175 to 1) – Ghim is one of the better, young players on the PGA Tour and I think we will see him win some tournaments in the next year or two – whether that’s this week or not has yet to be seen but he has lots of solid stats including the ability to make tons of birdies. He doesn’t have any top 10’s just yet but has 4 top 25’s in 7 starts and he’s 6 to 1 for a top 20 so that’s not too shabby, especially considering he has three top 20’s this season in 7 starts.
Cameron Davis (135 to 1) – Davis is a long-ball hitter who can make eagles and birdies at a very nice clip. He has a T3 and a T6 so far this season on the PGA Tour and European Tour, respectively, and he was T9 here a year ago and that was after five missed cuts in six starts so this course appears to be a good fit for his game. If you want to throw a few bucks on Davis this week for a top 10 (11 to 1) or a top 20 (5 to 1) I would feel pretty good about that for your odds to have a nice payout.
Avoid: Sam Ryder (400 to 1) – Ryder has been one of the worst players so far on the PGA Tour this season with just one made cut in seven starts, and his best finish is a T52 in a very week field in the Dominican Republic. There’s no reason to bet Sam this week or any week anymore really.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
