Christmas Day Football: Vikings vs. Saints
Oh, what a treat we have this week. A football game on Christmas Day? Now that’s how we end 2020 on a high note! This game should be a good one too, as the Vikings look to keep their playoff hopes alive in a clash with the New Orleans Saints, a team who Minnesota has knocked out of the playoffs twice in the last three seasons. With Minnesota’s playoff fate in the palm of their hands, it’s hard to imagine that the Saints wouldn’t take joy in a victory this week. Following tough back-to-back losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, the Saints are in need of a big win this week. Can Drew Brees and Sean Payton get the job done? Using the Odds Comparison Tool supplied by BettingData, let’s take a look at this matchup between these playoff rivals.
Game Info
- Spread: Saints -7
- Total: 51.5
- See NFL Live Odds
It’s easy to see why the Saints are being given a touchdown advantage in this one, as their defense is one of the best in the league this season — an excellent counter to Minnesota’s high-octane offense — while the Vikings’ defense is one of the worst units in the league — making life easier for New Orleans’ struggling offense. It’s going to take an A+ effort on both sides of the ball for Minnesota to even consider winning this game, much less covering the spread. The Vikings have performed poorly in games against teams with winning records, with the exceptions being their division victories over Green Bay and Chicago (both of whom they’ve lost too, as well). The Saints haven’t been great against the few “good” teams they’ve faced, with losses to Green Bay, Las Vegas, and Kansas City. That’s a good thing (for Saints fans), as the team is 7-1 against teams with losing records, having beaten three of them by more than one score.
Minnesota Vikings
- Overall: 6-8
- Road: 3-3
Minnesota’s playoff hopes depend on a rather ridiculous parlay of events going in their favor. In order for that outcome to occur they need to win their next two games. The Saints defense ranks third in the league in yards allowed, while also ranking top-five in pass defense and run defense. This unit is capable of plugging up the gaps in order to slow down Dalvin Cook, while simultaneously shutting down Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen by throwing Marcus Lattimore on them. It’s going to take a great game from Kirk Cousins for the Vikings to win this week. Cousins has only one of his 13 interceptions this year in losses, while only throwing three picks in his previous eight games. Remember it was Cousins who threw the game-winning touchdown for Minnesota in the Superdome last year to upset the Saints in the Wild Card Round. His performance will once again be crucial to victory. While I see the Saints winning this one, I do like Minnesota’s odds to cover.
New Orleans Saints
- Overall: 10-4
- Home: 5-2
Drew Brees wasn’t quite himself in his return to action last week, starting the game 0-6 on passing attempts. While he eventually got it together, one has to wonder if it’s a good idea for him to even be on the field for the team right now. It wasn’t long ago that Brees broke eleven ribs, after all. That’s not an easy injury to shake off and it will be interesting to see how he deals with taking hits this week. The Vikings defense has been below average this season, ranking 24th in passing yards allowed and 23rd against the rush. This is a great “get it together” opportunity for the Saints, who may have blown their chance to get a first-round bye already. If they can get Alvin Kamara going, this should be a runaway victory. If not, then the Vikings could make this a very close game. This game is a decent bet to go over the 51.5 point total, as these late-season games aren’t usually known for great displays of defensive football. While New Orleans has only gone over that total six times this season, their first five games of the year were all well over the 51 point threshold. The Vikings have had ten such instances, which tells me that there will be points on the board.
Best Player Props
These odds and more found at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Justin Jefferson | Under 4.5 Receptions +114, Under 65.5 Receiving Yards +100
I think Jefferson will be in for a long night whether he’s covered by Lattimore or not. As great as the rookie out of LSU has been this season, the Saints defense is elite for a reason. Jefferson has eight games this season with four or fewer receptions. He has six games with fewer than 65 receiving yards. I think he falls short of both in this one, so if you want to reap the benefits throw these props in a parlay together.
Dalvin Cook | Over 3.5 Receptions +105, Over 21.5 Rushing Attempts +100
Cook’s receiving abilities have been the key to the resurgence of this team, as he has surpassed three receptions in six games this year, with five of those coming in his last six games. His volume as a runner has been steady too, with at least 21 attempts in 10 games this season. I expect the Vikings to ride Cook once again this week, so these two props are solid chases.
