Golf Betting Tips
The PGA Tour has moved from California to Arizona this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open which features a 132-player field with a bunch of elite talent and some sound depth players as well. This may be the best field we have ever seen for this tournament as Rory McIlroy will be competing for the first time in his illustrious career, the top 5 in the world top 10 are here, along with the top 21 in the top 50, as well.
There’s $7.3M on the line to be won this week, the winner gets just over $1.3M and also receives 500 highly-coveted FedEx Cup points. For the first time in three weeks, we will see a tournament that only uses one course which will be nice since multi-track events can be a bit more challenging to forecast. TPC Scottsdale – Stadium Course is this week’s destination – the track is 7,261 yards in length, is a par 71, and features TifEagle Bermudagrass greens which are relatively rare on the PGA Tour. The winning score at this tournament over the last decade has averaged -17.5, with the best score coming from Phil Mickelson when he went nuclear for a tournament co-leading score of -28 in 2013. Put your faith and money into players this week who can make lots of birdies, are strong with their approaches into greens, gain strokes on par 5s, and are solid from 150 to 175 yards. Increase your winning probability for each one of your golf bets by using these valuable PGA Tour tools and analytics.
Below you will discover two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20 or 30 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
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+2000 and lower
Jon Rahm (+625) – Rahm has three consecutive T7’s coming into this week, and the former ASU product keeps getting better and better each year here going T16, T11, T10, T9, over the past four years. He’s my favorite outright bet this week, so you could make that one and feel content about it, but I would also place a top 5 (+160) and/or a top 10 (-110) wager in there as well.
Xander Schauffele (+850) – I faded Schauffele last week but sure won’t be doing that this week as he was co-runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open in an event that he had the least amount of success in out of all his career tournaments. Flash forward to this week and you will see that the worst he has finished is T17 over the past three years with a T10 coming two years ago. Schauffele looks poised to win again soon and nobody would be surprised if he accomplished that feat this week. If you make an outright wager on Xander this week I would also recommend that you also do a top 5 (+200) and/or a top 10 (+120) bet much like Rahm above since winning on the PGA Tour is damn hard – even for superstars.
Avoid: Rory McIlroy (+1150) – McIlroy is one of the world’s best players, of course, but he has no tournament experience at the track this week and he only finished T16 last week. He did have a top 5 finish at the Masters but that was back in November, and he was 3rd at a European Tour event late last month, but I need to see more from Rory going forward on the PGA Tour before placing a bet on him. He will be playing a lot leading up to the Masters in April, so keep an eye on him and see if his play gathers steam leading up to the world’s most prestigious golf tournament.
+2100 to +5000
Hideki Matsuyama (+2300) – Matsuyama won this event in back to back years in 2016 and 2017 and since then has a T16 and a T15 over the past two years – his course history is pretty much unrivaled, really. He has six top 28’s this season in 9 starts with a near victory coming back in November at the Houston Open. I would be comfortable placing a top 20 bet on Hideki this week but likely wouldn’t do much more than that – even with his insane past results here.
Will Zalatoris (+5000) – WillZ is climbing the PGA Tour ranks in a hurry, has only missed one cut in his past 23 starts between the PGA Tour and the Korn Ferry Tour, was T6 at the U.S. Open last September and is coming off a T7 last week. He is making his Waste Management Phoenix Open debut this week and I expect it to be a successful one for the young stud. I think you safely place a top 20 bet on Zalatoris this week, or a top 10 would even be acceptable in my books.
Avoid: Scottie Scheffler (+5000) – COVID-19 has sadly killed millions of people around the world and has really seemed to kill Scheffler’s golf game after he was riding high before contracting the virus just before the U.S. Open earlier this season. He has shown some life here and there but has finished no higher than T13 in 9 starts this season and has missed back-to-back cuts. He also missed the cut here last year in his first look at the WMPO and it could happen again this year, so stay away from Scottie… for now.
+5100 to +10000
Bubba Watson (+5500) – Bubba doesn’t have a top 10 since October, but there are certain courses that just work well for his unique golf game and this week is one of those destinations. He has a T3 and a T4 over the past two years at this event and while I wouldn’t necessarily bet him to finish top 5 for the third consecutive year, I think a top 20 is a calculated risk that you should consider.
Avoid: Brooks Koepka (+5500) – Koepka’s finishes have kept getting worse over his past three with a T72, T93, and T122, and there is no guarantee that he won’t miss his fourth straight cut line this week. He hasn’t played here since 2017 when he finished T42, and there should be no money wagered on Brooks until he straightens out his golf game (and maybe his attitude too!), or until a major tournament comes along since he tends to actually get up for those events.
+10100 and higher
Chris Kirk (+12500) – Kirk has really seemed to put his substance abuse issues behind him, and that has had dramatic effects on his golf game as he has three top 18’s over his last four starts including a co-runner-up finish at the Sony Open last month. He had a T11 here three years ago and I can picture something close to that this week. A top 20 or 30 bet on Kirk this week should be on your radar.
Martin Laird (+17500) – Laird won the Shriners back in October and has a strong track record at this event with a T7 four years ago, a T9 three years ago, a T26 two years ago, and he was T55 here last year. He hasn’t been super impressive as of late but lives in Arizona and loves playing this event – perhaps more than any other on the PGA Tour. I wouldn’t hesitate to place a top 30 bet on Laird this week – he could net another top 10 but to be more conservative you can take the +225 for a top 30 and hopefully collect your winnings on Sunday evening.
Avoid: Bo Van Pelt (+150000) – The player I like the least this week is Van Pelt who has yet to make a cut in 9 starts this season and over his last 5 starts he has finished no better than 108th, yikes! He did win a PGA Tour tournament back in 2009 (hello U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee!) but the 45-year-old won’t be winning again unless it’s on the Champions Tour a few years down the road.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
