PGA DFS Picks
Waste Management Phoenix Open
Harness intel from this article to improve your fantasy golf picks for the 2021 Waste Management, and head over to our PGA Optimizer to make more insightful player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck this week!
Recap from last week: The win was a bit controversial and some of the PGA Tour players aren’t happy about it, but Patrick Reed won the Farmers Insurance Open last week despite picking up his golf ball when he said it was plugged in the rough (even though the TV cameras picked up the ball bouncing once before settling into the rough), cleaning the ball up, and putting it back down in (likely) a more favorable striking position. He should have waited for a rules official to come by to get an official ruling and support from him or her for moving forward, but instead went ahead and did what was best for his hole and overall score. Reed still did win by five strokes so there shouldn’t be a ton of controversy, but Reed already has a less than favorable brand in the world of golf and amongst fans, so this just adds to his bad guy persona. I still offer my congratulations to Reed for winning his 9th PGA Tour tournament, he’s one of the best in the world and I at least have respect for the quality of his golf game.
Preview for the Waste Management Phoenix Open: The PGA Tour heads slightly east from San Diego, CA, to Phoenix, AZ, for an event that has been a mainstay on the PGA Tour since 1932 – with the exception of 1936 to 1938, but it was brought back in 1939. 5,000 fans will be allowed per day due to pandemic restrictions, so we won’t hear the same roars we are used to hearing this year – especially on the par 3, 16th hole, where there’s usually 20,000+ drunk and wild fans going crazy! Phil Mickelson (2013) and Mark Calcavecchia (2001) currently hold the tournament record at -28, but with the exceptionally high-quality field we have on tap this year, it’s very possible we will see that broken. The past five winners of this event including 2020 – Webb Simpson, 2019 – Rickie Fowler, 2018 – Gary Woodland, 2017 – Hideki Matsuyama, and 2016 – Hideki Matsuyama.
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Tournament purse: The purse for this year’s event is set at $7.3M, the winner receives $1.314M in prize money and earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: Since 1987, TPC Scottsdale – Stadium Course, has been the mainstay for this event. The track is 7,261 yards in length, is a par 71, and the greens consist of TifEagle Bermudagrass. The winning score over the past ten years at this venue range from -14 to -28, so depending on weather and course conditions the winning score can really vary. Some of the key player stats to research this week are strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: par 5s, birdies or better gained, and proximity gained: 150 to 175 yards.
The field: The field size is the traditional 132-players that regularly get to play this event, with the top 65 players plus ties moving forward into weekend play to compete in rounds 3 and 4. Five of the top ten players in the world are in the field this week including Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, and Webb Simpson. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be an A.
Notable storylines: Rory McIlroy will be teeing it up for the first time ever at this event and he will be playing a ton leading up to the Masters, so it appears that he’s gearing up to win the career grand slam this year. Tournament co-record holder and three-time champ, Phil Mickelson, won’t be playing this year in an attempt to win for his fourth time which would be an event record. Surprisingly enough, seven-time PGA Tour winner, Webb Simpson, has never attempted to defend a title from the previous year but will put himself in that situation this week.
Lineup construction strategy this week: We had been getting used to full 156-player fields, but this week we see a reduction by 24 – this means you might be able to get a tad more aggressive with your lineup builds since a higher percentage of players will play all four rounds. I have been finding success with stars and scrubs/balanced hybrids lately, and suspect I’ll likely stick with that approach for this week. With a slightly smaller field this week you may want to leave a few hundred dollars on the table for your core lineups in a bid to keep them as unique as possible, and as always, be sure to pay attention to ownership projections to avoid the chalk as much as possible. Dipping down in the $6K range can help with lineup originality as well as most of these players are <1% to 5% owned.
All the best for pulling down some wins this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance at this event over the last 5 years (when available), and add in some helpful pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Jon Rahm (Salary: DraftKings – $11.2K) – Rahm’s lucky number seems to be 7 as he has three straight T7 finishes. He was right in contention last week until he only managed to shoot par in both of his weekend rounds to settle for a T7 in the end. He was co-runner-up four starts ago, is still looking for his first win on the season and it can come anytime, so be ahead of it. His finishes keep getting better and better at this event and this year should be no different with an improvement on last year’s T9 being a real good possibility. Waste Management Phoenix Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T9, 2019 – T10, 2018 – T11, and 2017 – T16.
Xander Schauffele (Salary: DraftKings – $11.0K) – I’m really liking Schauffele this week because last week was supposed to be a down week for him as he was only 1 for 5 at Torrey Pines but he did his normal Xander things and finished T2. He has two runner-up finishes this season, two 5ths, and two T17’s. His game has no weaknesses whatsoever and he’s 2nd in strokes gained total on the PGA Tour – he’s money. Waste Management Phoenix Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T16, 2019 – T10, and 2018 – T17.
Justin Thomas (Salary: DraftKings – $10.8K) – It was a toss-up between Thomas, McIlroy, or defending champ Simpson for this spot, but I decided to go with Thomas who’s been regularly on the leaderboard this season in almost every tournament, and this week we should see a lot of him as well on the first page. He’s coming off a 3rd at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, has a T2, a 4th, a T8, and two T12’s in six starts this season. I can almost taste a win coming for JT, and wouldn’t be surprised at all if it comes on Sunday – especially given his success at this event over the past two years. Waste Management Phoenix Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T3, 2019 – 3rd, 2018 – T17, 2017 – Cut, and 2016 – Cut.
The $9K Range
Daniel Berger (Salary: DraftKings – $9.6K) – Berger has had a solid season so far with two top 10’s in 6 starts and his worst finish to date was at the U.S. Open where he finished T34. He’s coming off his best finish since late September with a T7 at the Sony Open in Hawaii and previous to that he was 10th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. I also like that he’s 6th in birdie average, so he knows how to make the holes tweet for him. Waste Management Phoenix Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T9, 2019 – Cut, 2018 – T11, 2017 – T7, and 2016 – T58.
Ryan Palmer (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K) – Palmer’s stock just keeps rising with his co-runner-up finish last week, he had a 4th and a T4 before his T41 at the Sony Open in Hawaii, and he has made six straight cuts. He’s 3rd in birdie average, 15th in eagle average, and 26th in scoring average overall this season. He has been bad at this event over the last four years, but the 4-time PGA Tour winner is playing some of the best golf of his career right now and that should remain intact this week. Waste Management Phoenix Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – T60, 2018 – Cut, 2017 – Cut, and 2016 – T24.
Hideki Matsuyama (Salary: DraftKings – $9.8K) – Matsuyama has won this event twice in the past five years and I expect that his mediocre T53 finish from last week will have him motivated to try to win for the third time this week in his biggest money-making event on Tour. He has a co-runner-up finish this season which came five starts ago, is 8 for 9, and is consistent from week to week with finishes regularly in the teens and low 20s. Waste Management Phoenix Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T16, 2019 – T15, 2018 – W/D, 2017 – Won, and 2016 – Won.
The $8K Range
Brian Harman (Salary: DraftKings – $8.0K) – Harman is coming off of his strongest finish of the season with a T7 two weeks ago at The American Express, is 9 for 10, and has six top 30s. He won’t likely get another top 10 finish this week, but a top 25 is certainly within the realm of possibility and that would pay dividends with him at $8K flat on DK. Waste Management Phoenix Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T49, 2019 – T39, 2017 – T24, and 2016 – T58.
Louis Oosthuizen (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K) – When the fields are at their strongest, so is Oosthuizen’s golf game. He was solo 3rd at the U.S. Open, had a T23 at the Masters, and came in T29 last week despite having more than a two-month layoff. He’s a wizard on the greens, is 7th in eagle average, and 21st in scoring average. The rust should be off this week and I expect a top 20 finish for the former Open Championship winner. Waste Management Phoenix Open finishes over the past five years: 2017 – 3rd.
Gary Woodland (Salary: DraftKings – $8.3K) – I’m not too fond of the $8K range on DK this week and found it uncharacteristically challenging to find three players I liked, so you may want to avoid paying up for players here unless it’s one of the three I selected. Woodland won this event three years ago and has shown some promise since returning from his months-long injury woes with a T16 two weeks ago and was T48 last week in San Diego but did open with a 66 in round 1 so he’s getting back to his former self. Waste Management Phoenix Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T40, 2019 – T7, 2018 – Won, 2017 – Cut, and 2016 – T33.
The $7K Range
Carlos Ortiz (Salary: DraftKings – $7.8K) – Ortiz’s best stretch of golf in his career started five starts ago when he won the Houston Open, he had a T8 the start after, a T14 in Hawaii, and was at the top of the leaderboard last week before his disastrous 78 in round 4 on Sunday to finish T29. Nonetheless, he has found his path to success on the PGA Tour and I expect to see more good things out of him this week. Waste Management Phoenix Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T25, 2019 – T60, 2018 – T45, and 2016 – Cut.
Patton Kizzire (Salary: DraftKings – $7.0K) – Kizzire has made 8 straight cuts and has a T7, a T10, and a T11 during that stretch. His eagle, birdie, and scoring averages are all in the top 32, and he’s 40th in strokes gained total. For a flat $7K price on DK, and with just one missed cut in his last five years at this tournament, I’m liking what Patton brings to the table this week. Waste Management Phoenix Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T61, 2019 – Cut, 2018 – T31, 2017 -T57, and 2016 – T60.
Corey Conners (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – I expected more out of Conners last week but he was consistent from round to round and finished T37, so he didn’t do terrible by any means. Prior to last week, he had three top 10’s in five starts, a T17, and a T24. He has made 8 straight cut lines and hits a great golf ball, so I’ll be going back to the well with Conners once again this week. Waste Management Phoenix Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – T45.
The $6K Range
Matt Jones (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – Jones played in the weekend again last week for his 7th straight made cut, and has a T4, a T11, and a T21 during that stretch. I expect the 40-year-old Aussie to make the cut again this week, and does have top 20 equity – making him a good value play once more. Waste Management Phoenix Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut, 2017 – T36, and 2016 – T60.
Cameron Tringale (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – Tringale had a solo 3rd three starts ago at The RSM Classic thanks to his finishing round 62, he’s coming off a T18 last week, and has only missed one cut in his last 7 events played. None of his stats really jump off the page, but he is 42nd in strokes gained total, 25th in greens in regulation, 40th in birdie average, and 27th in scoring average. He has been awful at this event over the past few years, but did have a T12 here in 2014, so he’s fully capable of a solid finish. Waste Management Phoenix Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut, 2018 – Cut, 2017 – Cut, and 2016 – Cut.
Kyle Stanley (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K) – The $6K range on DK is dicey like normal, but I do like what Stanley has done over his past 5 starts finishing no worse than T46 (outside of his one missed cut), he was T6 five starts ago at The RSM Classic, and over his past two weeks, he has a T32 and a T18. He also won this event 9 years ago. Waste Management Phoenix Open finishes over the past five years: 2020 – Cut, 2019 – Cut, 2018 – Cut, 2017 – T36, and 2016 – T45.
Recapping my 15 pick’s finishes from last week’s Farmers Insurance Open
The $10K+ Range
- Tony Finau – T2
- Rory McIlroy – T16
- Jon Rahm – T7
The $9K Range
- Harris English – Cut
- Viktor Hovland – T2
- Sungjae Im – T32
The $8K Range
- Si Woo Kim – Cut
- Jason Day – Cut
- Marc Leishman – T18
The $7K Range
- John Huh – T65
- Doug Ghim – T37
- Corey Conners – T37
The $6K Range
- Wyndham Clark – T32
- Justin Suh – T37
- Martin Laird – Cut
