Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour heads from Southern California to Northern California this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and this event dates back 85 years to 1937 when Sam Snead beat George Von Elm with a score of -4 to win by four strokes. This tournament features a trio of courses including Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club – each player will play each of these tracks between Thursday and Saturday, and Pebble Beach will be used exclusively for round 4 on Sunday. We have another full field of 156 players this week, and there will be a cut line to deal with after round 3 on Saturday where the top 65 players plus ties move forward to play round 4 on Sunday.
There’s $8.7M on the line to be won this week, the winner banks $1.566M and also collects 500 FedEx Cup points. Pebble Beach is 6,972 yards in length and is a par 72, Spyglass Hill is 7,041 yards and is also a par 72, and Monterey Peninsula is 6,957 yards and is a par 71 – all three courses feature poa annua greens. The average winning score at this tournament over the past ten years is -17.8, and with the wind and weather looking pretty decent this week, I expect a number around -18 to -21 to take it on Sunday evening. The tournament record is held by Brandt Snedeker who won in 2015 with a score of -22. Place bets on golfers this week who hit a long ball off the tee, are solid on the greens, hit an accurate ball from the tee blocks, are solid off the tee, and hold their own tee to green.
Increase your odds for winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions I have regarding the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week:
1. How many players should you bet outright? It looks as though the class of the field is Patrick Cantlay and Daniel Berger. Berger won here a year ago and Cantlay came in T3 and keeps improving on his recent finishes at this event, so it makes a lot of sense to bet both of these players to win. You may want to add another golfer or two to your outright wagers, but Cantlay and Berger are the clear-cut favorites to win, especially with Zalatoris pulling out.
2. Does event history matter here? If you look through player’s previous work at Pebble Beach, they either tend to do quite well or quite the opposite, and I think it’s because there are three courses used, so experience matters here more so than tournaments that only feature one course. I always look at past results every week, but this week’s data matters more to me than the average event.
3. Are Cantlay’s odds too short to bet him? Cantlay’s current outright odds are only +650, but I believe that number is warranted as he’s quite possibly the best golfer in the world right now, he has a solid history at Pebble Beach including finishing T3 last year, and he knows how to close out victories – he had 4 of them alone in 2021! Sure, his odds are short, but he’s still worth an outright wager in my humble opinion.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Patrick Cantlay (+650) – He’s insanely talented with four wins coming last year, two of them were three and four starts ago, and so far this year he has a 4th and a 9th. Cantlay is just so solid in every facet of the game, and he’s a threat to win every time he competes. He has three top 11’s here in five starts since 2013 including his T3 a year ago where he gained 9.28 strokes ball-striking, he’s the top-dog of the field, and I think you can easily bet him to win, to finish top 5, AND finish top 10 this week and you’ll likely win the latter two wagers at the very least.
Daniel Berger (+900) – Berger has competed only three times at Pebble Beach in his career but I can see him coming out every year going forward if he continues to do what he has done with a T10 in 2015, a T5 in 2020, and he won here last year thanks to gaining a ton of strokes in every stat category. He’s one of the best approach players in the game today and his finishes reflect that as he has five straight top 26’s including two top 7’s, and he had nine top 11’s in 2021 overall. I don’t normally like betting the defending champ, but Berger is an exception this week since his stats are too outstanding to ignore. He likely won’t win this week so I would be a bit cautious in betting him outright, but a top 5 or top 10 bet makes a ton of sense any which way you look at it.
Avoid: Jordan Spieth (+1600) – Spieth won this event in 2017 and has a really solid record at Pebble Beach, but I just don’t like what I’m seeing out of him lately as he’s bleeding strokes on approach which is bad since that’s his main weapon when he’s scoring well, and his other stats aren’t too sexy either since last August. He could turn it around this week and have a huge finish, but I’m not betting on it.
+2600 to +5000
Denny McCarthy (+5000) – Success at this event is largely dictated by short game play, and McCarthy’s strength is just that – his chipping and putting. He has amassed four top 15’s in his last five starts including a T6 in his most recent start at The American Express two weeks ago, and his off the tee and approach game have even been above average lately which is rare for him. He hasn’t fared too well at Pebble Beach just yet in two starts, but I think that changes this week unless his positive trending stats regress. I think betting him to finish top 20 this week is a relatively safe play, or you could venture into top 30 territory if you want to be more conservative.
Kevin Kisner (+4000) – Kisner thrives on shorter courses, and lucky for him there are three of them this week. He hasn’t been as good as you’d think he would be at this tournament, but half of his finishes are top 39’s since 2011 and he was T10 in 2017 thanks to gaining 5.90 strokes on approach. He won the Wyndham Championship, a shorter course, eight starts ago, and over his last two starts he finished T8 at the Tournament of Champions and T3 at the Sony Open in his most recent start. As long as his solid all-around game shows up this week as it has both times this year in 2022, I expect him to finish top 20 or top 30, and that’s how I would bet him, as well.
Avoid: Ryan Palmer (+5000) – Palmer has been quite good over his last four starts with a T27, a T26, a T12, and a T16, but the problem for me is his track record at Pebble Beach as he has missed six cut lines since 2008 in ten starts and has finished no better than T29 during that span and that came in 2012. I like what he has been doing lately, his stats are solid, and he could do well this week, but I don’t think this is the right spot for Palmer to thrive and history reveals that unfortunate reality.
+5100 to +10000
Matt Kuchar (+6000) – It was looking like Kuchar’s career was going to the dog house, but over his last five starts he has found a new lease on life with five straight top 36’s and he’s coming off a T7 at the Sony Open where he gained strokes across the board and 8.68 total. Over his last six appearances at this event, he has only missed the cut once and has four top 38’s including a T22 three years ago. I think betting him to finish top 30 or top 40 is the way to go this week, you won’t walk away with a lot of money from either bet, but both mitigate risk reasonably well.
Lucas Glover (+8000) – Glover has put up some incredible ball-striking numbers since last October and he had a T5 two starts ago at the Sony Open thanks to gaining a whopping 9.55 strokes on approach. He won the John Deere Classic last July, and has three straight top 35’s including that T5 three weeks ago in Hawaii. His record at Pebble Beach is also quite attractive too as he has two top 11’s here in his last three starts including a T7 three years ago. It’s hard to say whether to bet him to finish top 10, top 20, top 30, or top 40 this week, but it’s up to you on how bullish you are on the Glove.
Avoid: Brandt Snedeker (+8000) – Sneds has won this event two times in his career and holds the tournament record at -22, but he has failed to play Sunday golf here over the last three years and he missed the cut last week at the Farmers Insurance Open with mediocre looking stats across the board. He could finish something like T46 this week, but that’s not going to do anything for your bank account, just his.
+11000 and higher
Brian Gay (+20000) – Gay has been terrible since winning the Bermuda Championship in November 2020, but there are certain places he plays inspired golf, and Pebble Beach is one of the venues. He has made the cut here eight straight times and has two top 8’s over the last four years with solid stats to back up those finishes. He has a wide range of outcomes this week, but I think betting him to finish top 30 or top 40 could help you profit, or go with the top 10 wager if you’re feeling saucy.
Wyndham Clark (+11000) – We haven’t seen Clark at this event since 2020, but he locked in a T18 that year thanks to solid play throughout his bag, and he has done well over his last six starts with three top 29’s including a T13 at The American Express two starts ago. I think betting him to finish top 20, top 30, or top 40 this week is fine.
Avoid: James Hahn (+18000) – Hahn has missed three straight cut lines and it’s his putter that’s letting him down as he keeps losing strokes in the key stat category. He has also missed three straight cut lines at this tournament and just can’t seem to find the same magic that earned him a T3 here in 2013. He could finish higher than the field average this week, but there’s too much risk involved and not enough upside to warrant a bet on James right now.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
