Golf Betting Tips
The PGA Tour remains in Florida for one more week of golf with The Honda Classic – featuring one of the hardest tracks professional players come across. This event has been live on the PGA Tour for 49 years now and has been played at PGA National Resort and Spa – Champion Course since 2007. The field sits at 144 players this week, 10 less than last week’s PLAYERS Championship, and the top 65 plus ties will move onto the weekend to play rounds 3 and 4.
There is $7M on the line to be won this week, the winner gets an injection of $1.26M into his bank account, and also racks up 500 valuable FedEx Cup points. PGA National Resort and Spa – Champion Course is just 7,125 yards in length, is a par 70, and we will again see Bermuda greens this week which is typical on FL tracks. The winning score at this tournament over the last ten editions averages just -8.8, and you can expect a score around -8 or -9 this year as well. Sungjae Im is the defending champion here, and he’s back for more fun this year after beating Canadian, MacKenzie Hughes, by a single stroke a year ago with a final score of -6. The best score that this event has seen while at PGA National is -13 which came back in 2010 by Camilo Villegas. Bet on golfers this week who are strong with their approach – this is the most important stat to focus on this week, driving distance and accuracy matters, strokes gained around the green plays a factor, and players who are sound tee-to-green tend to do well on this track, as well.
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Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
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+2500 and lower
Daniel Berger (+1050) – Berger won just three starts ago at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, is coming off a T9 at The PLAYERS, has four top 10’s in ten starts this season, and has been inside the top 36 at this event over the last three years including his T4 last year. The Florida-native will also be looking to have another strong finish in his home state before the PGA Tour moves on from it, and he has played great in the sunshine state, so look for another top 10 this week. Not sure I would bet him to win, but a top 5 and/or a top 10 bet seems very calculated to me.
Sungjae Im (+1300) – Im is the defending champ at this tournament and comes into this week in fairly good form with seven top 32’s in his last eight starts. He isn’t spectacular with his approach play which is what we’re looking for in players this week, but his track record at Florida events is solid, and he consistently putts the lights out on Bermuda greens – drive for show, putt for dough. I think you could easily place a top 20 bet on Sungjae this week, or if you’re feeling ballsy, bet him to win again for the second straight year.
Avoid: Adam Scott (+2500) – Scott won here five years ago and has a couple of top 15’s since, and he’s been making the cut every time he plays, but he only has one top 10 this season so far and outside of that good result, his next best finish is a T21 which came at the Tournament of Champions in a very small field. His off-the-tee, approach, and ball striking stat categories have all been weak lately, and I could see him missing the cut just like he did in his most recent start at this tournament two years ago.
+2600 to +5000
Brendan Steele (+4500) – Steel has been on a pretty good roll as of late with five top 35’s in his last seven starts, he was T4 at the Sony Open two months ago, and had a T18 two starts ago at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He had two 72’s and two 71’s at The PLAYERS last week to finish T41, so his consistency is spot on right now. Also, in his last four starts at The Honda Classic, he has a T4, and two T14’s, so this track agrees with how he plays the game.
Russell Henley (+3000) – Henley has three straight top 25’s at this event and finished T8 here a year ago after gaining more than 10 strokes in approach and almost 10 strokes in his ball-striking which is incredible. He has seven top 30’s in eleven starts this season, and I think if you place a bet on him to finish top 30 this week you will be happy come Sunday evening. If you want to increase your risk and reward then go for a top 10 or a top 20, but I think a top 30 is the safest bet.
Avoid: Rickie Fowler (+4500) – Fowler usually plays well on Florida courses but he hasn’t really played well on any courses this season. His best finish in thirteen starts this season is a T20 and he has missed the cut five times – something is just off with Rickie. Rickie won here four years ago and has two other top 6’s in the last five years, but he also has two missed cuts as well, and I think that he will either miss the cut this year or finish something like T72 like he did two starts ago at the API and there’s no money in that outcome.
+5100 to +10000
Adam Hadwin (+6600) – Hadwin has been supposedly working with a new swing coach, and it has been paying off as he has four top 32’s in his last six starts and is coming off a T29 last week at The Players. He doesn’t have much of a track record at The Honda Classic, but I expect his strong around the green game to keep sizzling this week and propel him to another top 30.
Brandon Wu (+7000) – Not many golf fans know about Wu just yet, but he’s well known on the Korn Ferry Tour as he won there last Summer and has a pile of top 10’s over the past few months. He did play the Puerto Rico Open last month as well and placed T7, so he showed he can produce on the PGA Tour as well. With the Korn Ferry Tour producing stronger and stronger players and the line blurring more and more with the PGA Tour, it’s time to start looking at the talent down there and paying respect to it. Wu also had a T35 two years ago at the U.S. Open, so he has shown that he can hang with elite fields, as well. I think a top 30 or a top 40 bet on Wu this week is a decent wager.
Avoid: Phil Mickelson (+10000) – OK OK, so Mickelson did have a T35 last week but it was the only one of its kind for him this season on the PGA Tour and I think it was an outlier. We will see if I’m right this week or not, time will tell, but I just don’t feel confident in Phil’s game these days… unless it’s on the Champions Tour, then giddy-up.
+11000 and higher
Wesley Bryan (+15000) – Bryan leads in strokes gained approach for this field and had a T4 on this track four years ago, so he knows the ins and outs of it and can perform well here. He has been T32 and T43 over his last two events, and I think a top 30 or a top 40 bet could fetch you some money this week, just don’t get any more aggressive than that, however.
Patrick Rodgers (+12500) – It was pretty difficult finding another player to bet in this range, and even this one seems a tad risky for my liking. Rodgers has two top 30’s in his last four starts and has been inside the top 32 at The Honda Classic over the last three years. You could bet him to have a top 30 or a top 40 this week and it could pay off or it could pay nothing. I think he will finish top 40 this week, but don’t quote me on it.
Avoid: Luke Donald (+30000) – Donald is just a shadow of his former self and has only made the cut twice this season in ten starts. He hasn’t made a cut since October, the events he made the cut in were weak fields and he finished T40 and T66. He actually has a decent record at this event with two top 30’s in his last three appearances, but he was in better form then and likely had a lot more confidence too which is key to doing well on the PGA Tour.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
