Since we’re into the heart of the fantasy baseball draft season, it’s time to think about some fun bold predictions for the American and National League, most of which have fantasy-relevant implications. For this piece, we’ll hit on a handful or so of hitter bold predictions from the American League. Honestly, these bold predictions may not even feel bold enough, but part of this process is to highlight players I’m fond of. These bold predictions involve gut feelings and interesting projection system observations. Let’s dive into several bold predictions for American League hitters.
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Eloy Jimenez will win the AL MVP in 2021
Since debuting in 2019, Eloy Jimenez keeps producing with 45 home runs, 95 runs, and 120 RBI with a triple slash of .276/.321/.527 in 730 plate appearances. The power is legit and the Statcast data backs it up. In 2019, Jimenez notched a 12.8% barrel rate (89th percentile) then it increased to 16.5% (96th percentile) in 2020. Meanwhile, his 47.8% hard-hit rate (90th percentile) in 2019 also jumped to 55.7% (98th percentile) in 2020. Jimenez also boasted a 96.6 mph average exit velocity on FB/LD (No. 12) in 2019 that also increased to 97.7 mph (No. 8) in 2020.
According to BettingData, Eloy Jimenez is a bit of a longshot at +3000 on Draft Kings near players like George Springer, Yasmani Grandal, and Rafael Devers. The BAT X projects Jimenez for 35 home runs, 87 runs, 101 RBI, and one steal with a .283 batting average. In the loaded White Sox offense, Jimenez is a four-category stud that could produce similarly to prime J.D. Martinez.
Clint Frazier finishes as the best Yankees’ outfielder
Finally, Clint Frazier received some playing time in 2020 and performed well. Frazier came out of the gates hot with two home runs in his first three games with a notable batting stance adjustment. Recent reports indicate that Frazier will serve as the starting left fielder for the Yankees, which is good news for potential plate appearances. Maybe it’s not so bold that he’ll finish as the best Yankees’ outfielder, but it’s safe to project games missed by Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks.
All Clint Frazier needs is consistent playing time and he’ll outproduce his 172 ADP over the past couple of weeks. Frazier finished with his highest barrel rate (12.5%) and hard-hit rate (43.2%). He also rocked a solid 25% line drive rate in 2020. We noticed on film that Frazier adjusted his batting stance that ended up as a purposeful change where he focused on limiting the movement at the plate.
Clint Frazier’s swing looks a little different. I thought I’ve seen him with an open stance or maybe it’s the camera angle. What a rocket off of Porcello tho https://t.co/j8qHfeip56
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) July 19, 2020
Let’s briefly look at the notable outfielder projections for Frazier, Judge, Hicks, and Brett Gardner according to the BAT X.
- Clint Frazier: 22 HR, 73 R, 67 RBI, 6 SB, .246 BA in 558 PA
- Aaron Judge: 33 HR, 90 R, 85 RBI, 4 SB, .256 BA in 586 PA
- Aaron Hicks: 23 HR, 80 R, 67 RBI, 6 SB, .241 BA in 586 PA
- Brett Gardner: 8 HR, 36 R, 28 RBI, 5 SB, .239 BA in 282 PA
If the power numbers and batted ball data hold up over a full season, Frazier could push for 30 home run potential.
2021 is Hunter Dozier’s breakout season with 25-30 home runs and 15 steals
Can you believe we have two Royals hitters in here? Neither can I yet let’s note a couple of Royals hitters that I love. When looking at his profile, Dozier’s steals projection is the bold part. However, he holds a Sprint Speed in the 77th percentile (2020) that dropped slightly from the 80th percentile (2019). Dozier’s 90-foot speed (4.07) is close to stolen base leaders such as Jonathan Villar (4.06) and Jose Ramirez (4.06). Granted Villar and Ramirez both displayed elite steal totals compared to Dozier’s major league career-high of four steals.
That said, heading into the 2020 season, Dozier noted that he wanted to steal more bases. Even in a random and COVID-19 laden 2020 season, Dozier reached a career-high of four steals in 2020. Unfortunately, he struggled outside of runs scored (29) with six home runs and a .228 batting average.
Dozier displayed his power in 2019 with a 94.2 mph average exit velocity on FB/LD (No. 47) between Max Muncy and Mookie Betts. He holds the stolen base potential and it’s likely a matter of intent. The BAT X projects Dozier for 23 home runs, 74 runs, 79 RBI, and five steals with a .245 batting average. We know he provides the 25-30 home run power, but the bold prediction lies in the stolen base total. A gut feeling that assuming health, Dozier will break the double-digit steal barrier.
Adalberto Mondesi finishes with 20 home runs and 55 steals
One of my favorite players includes the riskiest player in fantasy baseball – Adalberto Mondesi. He’s the odds-on favorite according to MLB Future bets on BettingData via Draft Kings (-130) and Points Bet (+120) to lead the league in steals. That said, the prediction of the stolen base seems likely. The risk lies in his plate discipline. When we lower the threshold to 950 plate appearances on FanGraphs, in 2019 – 2020, Mondesi finished with the 14th highest chase rate with a 39.6% O-Swing% and the 2nd worst contact rate at 64.3% between Joey Gallo and Aaron Judge. The rolling graph below of Mondesi’s wOBA gives us an idea of his streakiness with the highs and lows.
That’s not a good combination for a player like Mondesi that relies heavily on his stolen base value. However, interestingly, Mondesi recorded batting averages of .276, .263, and .256 over the past three seasons. We’ll note that Mondesi struggled with injuries and missed time during that timeframe. Plate discipline plus injury risk adds to the high risk and high reward for Mondesi. However, at Mondesi’s 95th-percentile outcome – he’s a league winner. He’s only 25 years old, so what if he improves? This may sit as the boldest prediction given the number of fantasy managers seemingly fade Mondesi with his high ADP in the early second round of 15-team leagues.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits 40+ home runs
Yes, we know Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hasn’t proven it yet and hits a ton of ground balls. However, the raw power exists for Guerrero with a 118.9 mph max exit velocity (No. 1) in 2019 and a 116.1 mph max exit velocity (No. 3) in 2020. Also, we heard reports of Guerrero losing over 40-pounds in the offseason and that makes me more optimistic about his outlook. Guerrero admitted that he came into Spring Training out of shape in past years. I’m buying into the narrative and think Guerrero will hit 40 plus home runs, and could even lead the American League.
Vlad Guerrero Jr. said he’s lost 42 pounds. He admitted he has reported to #BlueJays camp in the past out of shape. He spent the winter working on his quickness, weight loss and building strength.
— Kaitlyn McGrath (@kaitlyncmcgrath) February 24, 2021
According to the MLB Futures bets for the home run crown on Betting Data, Draft Kings has Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +4,000 and he’s +5,000 on Points Bet. Keep in mind that these odds take into account the entire major league pool, not by American or National League. Even the projection systems have Guerrero barely touching 30 home runs. The BAT X is the most optimistic with 30 home runs, 90 runs, 93 RBI, and three steals with a .295 batting average. Other projection systems have him hitting between 24-27 home runs in 2021. With Guerrero’s 80-grade raw power and best shape of his life narrative – 2021 is the year where he smashes 40 plus home runs.
