Golf Betting Tips
Brace yourself for another edition of The Masters Tournament, the second of its kind in just five months – we will have to wait a full calendar year for the 2022 event, so really soak this one up! The Masters first started way back in 1934 and is now known as the biggest golf spectacle in the world. Even non-golf fans pay attention to this tournament, maybe it’s because it’s usually the most popular conversation piece on Monday morning around the water cooler at the office, maybe because so many people actually place bets on players and watch it live, or perhaps it’s because when anyone thinks of golf they immediately think about this event due to the strong brand it has built. The field is small at just 89 players this week, and many of the long bets have no chance of making the cut, so there are only maybe 70 legit golfers or so actually playing. It’s pretty much the size of a WGC event then, but with a cut line where the top 50 golfers plus ties make it to play the weekend rounds.
There is $11.5M on the line to be won this week, the winner gets a cool injection of $2.07M into his bank account, and also racks up 600 valuable FedEx Cup points. Augusta National Golf Club is 7,475 yards in length, is a par 72, and the greens are bentgrass. The average winning score at this tournament over the last ten years is -12.1, so expect to see something closer to that this year than Dustin Johnson’s record-breaking score of -20 from five months ago when he took the green jacket by five strokes over Sungjae Im and Cameron Smith on a soft course. Bet on golfers this week who have a solid track record at The Masters, are solid from tee-to-green, can drive a long ball, make lots of birdies, and are good about gaining strokes in the total category.
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Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
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+2500 and lower
Justin Thomas (+1100) – Thomas’ play on the weekend at The PLAYERS was legendary to propel him to victory. Almost half of his stroke-play starts this season have gone for top 8’s, and he keeps getting better and better at navigating Augusta starting at T39 in his first appearance in 2016 and has worked his way up to T4 which came just five months ago. He’s so solid in almost every part of his game, especially his irons, and if his putter is on this week, then he should be firmly in the mix for his first of what could be many green jackets. He’s my top play for this week and would feel confident in betting him to win, finish top 5 AND to finish top 10. It’s extra enticing to bet him this week as DJ seems to be off his game, Rahm could be more focused on his new baby boy, McIlroy’s game isn’t where he would like it to be right now, and there are question marks for the other top players in the field, as well. This is the time to pounce on JT and ring the cash register come Sunday evening!
Jordan Spieth (+1150) – Spieth is coming off of his 12th PGA Tour win last week after securing the victory at the Texas Open. He’s performing at a very high level now, and while I would be concerned with most players after they just won, I’m not with Spieth as he has shown in the past that when he’s hot he’s hot and he has more than one back-to-back win in his career. Over his past seven events, he has gained more than 50 strokes total, and is eating up every stat category aside from off-the-tee, but he’s still net positive in that department, as well. Jordan won here six years ago and should have won here five years ago too, plus he has other top five finishes on this track as well. There will be tons of outright bets on Spieth this week now, but that’s fine – celebrate with those folks should he win. You can also do a top 5 and/or a top 10 bet too, all systems go right now for the Jordan machine.
Avoid: Tony Finau (+2500) – Finau was scorching up until mid-month in February, but since then has tailed off missing two cuts including at the Valero Texas Open in a relatively weak field, and lost strokes in all major stat categories at the match play event except for a mild gain in approach. He has two top 10’s in the last three years at The Masters but was T38 here last year, and I expect to see a similar result this week or maybe even worse, based on his recent form.
+2600 to +5000
Collin Morikawa (+2800) – Morikawa is young, talented, and already has a major win under his belt, so he should be full of confidence this week. He won just two starts ago in terms of stroke-play events, has three top 7’s in his last five PGA Tour events outside of match play, and much like Brooks Koepka, could start to earn a reputation for coming up huge in the biggest of tournaments. He arrives in better form than his T44 in his first look at Augusta last year, and I see a good chance at a top 20 for him this week with tons of upside.
Avoid: Tyrrell Hatton (+4500) – Hatton doesn’t have a top 10 on the PGA Tour since last year’s Houston Open, he missed the cut at The PLAYERS, and he has a poor record at The Masters – in four starts he has missed the cut twice, including last year, and his best finish is T44 which came three years ago. His stat line doesn’t look bad by any means, but he’s just not getting it done on the scoresheet, and that’s where it counts the most.
+5100 to +10000
Will Zalatoris (+6600) – Zalatoris must be loving life these days as he consistently plays excellent golf, is young, and the sky appears to be the limit for the youngster. Even when he loses strokes putting he can still put up top 10’s – case in point, he had a T10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational after losing 1.45 strokes with the flat stick. In his second career major he placed T6 at the U.S. Open on a very tough track, he was T21 at The PLAYERS in a much deeper field than this week’s, and he seems poised to win his first PGA Tour event sooner rather than later. He likely won’t win this week, of course, but I can certainly see him finishing top 20, and wouldn’t be surprised at all if he has a top 10. You can easily bet him to finish top 20, but also consider a wager for him to finish top 10, as well.
Corey Conners (+6600) – A third of Conners’ finishes this season have gone for top 10’s, he has three straight top 14’s (excluding the match-play event) including his T7 at The PLAYERS Championship and his T3 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has three T17’s and other top 25’s this season, was T10 here five months ago, and his consistent play leads to sustained high finishes on a regular basis. I think I will consider making both a top 10 and a top 20 bet on Conners this week, and could very well profit on both of them.
Avoid: Justin Rose (+8000) – I’m not sure if Rose has put golf on his back-burner now, or what’s going on, but his best finish on the PGA Tour this season was a T17 at the ZOZO Championship in a small field. He withdrew in round three at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, withdrew from The PLAYERS before the start of play, and his back spasms may be still a problem now, so I would recommend you avoid him until he’s fully healthy again and reapplies himself to competitive golf once more.
+11000 and higher
Mackenzie Hughes (+25000) – Hughes looked great at the match-play event to finish T9 after beating out Simpson, Casey, and Gooch in round-robin play – narrowly missing reaching the elite 8, and we have seen him go on nice heaters from time-to-time like last Fall when he had top 14’s in all three of the playoff events. He missed the cut here four years ago, but that’s when he was just settling in as a pro, so I view that as a positive, not a negative, to collect course information about Augusta, which is very important as it can take golfers at least a couple of looks before finding their game here. I think a top 30 wager on Hughes makes sense this week – I wouldn’t go much higher than that, however.
Victor Perez (+12500) – Perez is a pretty good-looking value bet to make this week as he was T9 at The PLAYERS and finished 4th at the match play event after losing to Matt Kuchar, mostly because of Kuch’s hot putter. He had a T46 at The Masters five months ago and his current form is worlds better than it was then. I think a top 30 wager is fine for Perez this week, or you could bet him to finish top 20 if you anticipate that his current hot streak will keep going.
Avoid: Cameron Champ (+15000) – Perhaps the most important key stat this week is driving a long ball, that’s something that Champ can certainly do with ease from the tee blocks, but aside from decent ball striking lately, the rest of his game is crap, especially his putting where he’s lost strokes to the field in 13 out of his last 14 events. He did come in T19 at The Masters last year but his form was better leading up to the November edition, and until he fixes his putting woes, he will keep missing cuts. In fact, he has missed the cut in five out of his last six events.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
