Golf Betting Tips
The PGA Tour is staying in Florida for the third straight week and that means it’s PLAYERS Championship time – arguably the fifth biggest tournament of the season outside of the four majors. The PLAYERS Championship has been a staple on the PGA Tour since 1974, and it has been held at the same venue – TPC at Sawgrass Stadium Course since 1982. The field totals 154 golfers set to do battle, so just two shy of a completely full field, and the top 65 players plus ties will make the cut after round 2 to play rounds 3 and 4 on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.
This is the biggest money golf tournament on the globe with $15M up for grabs, the winner enjoys a hearty deposit of $2.7M into their bank account and also racks up 600 FedEx Cup points. TPC at Sawgrass Stadium Course is just 7,189 yards in length, is a par 72, and like many Florida courses, the greens are Bermuda. The winning score at this tournament over the last ten installments averages -13.9 and 40% of those were actually -13, so expect a winning score around -13. Rory McIlroy is the defending champ here despite winning two years ago – you might remember that the event last year was canceled after round one due to the pandemic – McIlroy won by a single stroke over Jim Furyk with a score of -16. The best tournament score we have seen at this tournament is -24 which came back in 1994 by The Shark, Greg Norman. Place your wagers on golfers this week who are solid with their approach game, can get up and down effectively around the greens, are sound off the tee, are good about making birdies, and keep their ball on the fairways.
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Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
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+2000 and lower
Dustin Johnson (+1200) – I think that Johnson will be hungry this week for a big finish after his tough T54 outing two weeks ago at the WGC event. He now arrives at a course that he has lots of experience and success on, including his top 5 from two years ago. He has 5 top 10’s in 7 starts this season, two of them are wins, and the world’s number one golfer is a good bet to finish top 10 this week. I wouldn’t bet him outright as +1200 isn’t attractive enough to me given the elite field on tap, his bad previous start, and his good but not great track record on this course, but a top 5 seems doable to me.
Rory McIlroy (+1600) – I sort of like all of the players near the top of the board this week, and that’s not surprising as they are the very best in the world. McIlroy has impressed me in his last two starts with consecutive top 10 finishes, he’s the player to beat at this event since he’s the 2019 winner, and I can smell another win coming for him soon – he’s due. I would feel at ease betting him to finish top 10 this week – you could get up to a top 5 or an outright wager, but I think top 10 is the best hope for cashing in on this week Rory.
Avoid: Jon Rahm (+1600) – I can’t really say to avoid betting Rahm this week, but I will say that he’s my least favorite option out of the super-elite. He doesn’t have a top 3 finish since October and he has been mediocre at this tournament outside of his T12 in 2019. You could bet him to finish top 20, but I don’t think it’s worth the payout based on the risk involved.
+2100 to +5000
Webb Simpson (+2200) – I like a good combination of recent results and course history, and I got to be honest, it’s a bit hard to find a good combination of the two this week. Simpson is one of the better options available as he’s coming off a T6 at the WGC – Workday Championship event, had a T4 at the Sony Open three starts ago, has four top 10’s in nine starts this season, and he won The PLAYERS three years ago. He also hasn’t finished outside the top 16 in the last three editions of this tournament. Shorter courses are right up Webb’s alley as he’s not long off the tee but is fairly accurate and is a wizard with his irons. I don’t think I will place any outright bets this week, but do like Simpson as a top 10 or top 20 wager.
Collin Morikawa (+2200) – Morikawa is a winner and proved it again two weeks ago when he took down the WGC event on a course that not many players had much experience with, including him. He’s new to this tournament but his approach and ball striking game are just so incredible that he can win any time, anywhere. I don’t normally like to bet on players who are coming off the win, but Collin is just so talented so I don’t mind seeing what he can do. Plus, he’s rested after taking last week off, so he should be refocused and ready to go. I think a top 10 bet is workable for him this week, you could even do a top 5 but he just has one of those so far this season and that was his win.
Avoid: Justin Thomas (+2200) – Thomas has only had one top 10 in his last six starts, and that came at the Tournament of Champions with a very small field. He also doesn’t have a top 10 at this tournament in the last three installments, he’s coming off a T15 at the WGC event but was -5.9 off the tee which is concerning even though he should bounce back, but that’s not a guarantee. I think that JT will still have a good season overall, but now is not the time to bet money on him.
+5100 to +10000
Adam Scott (+8000) – This tournament seems to be one where either a player does great at or he doesn’t – much like last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Scott certainly has a nice-looking track record at The PLAYERS as he has finished anywhere from T6 to T12 over the last four editions and won back in 2004 – so his game evidently works very well here. His play has been a bit spotty over his last two starts but did have a T10 three starts ago at the Farmers Insurance Open, and should be rejuvenated this week. I think a top 20 bet on Adam works for this event, but I wouldn’t get too much more aggressive than that given his average seasonal play to date.
Corey Conners (+8000) – Conners is coming off of his best finish this season with a solo 3rd place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. He now has four top 10’s this season in 13 starts and has a few other top 25’s as well. I expect him to improve on his T41 from two years ago in his first look at The PLAYERS, so a top 20 or top 30 bet for this week on Corey would get my full endorsement.
Avoid: Lee Westwood (+10000) – What a huge performance Westwood had last week to finish runner-up to DeChambeau at the API. Will he have more magic in his bag again this week? He could, but I’m thinking that he will be soaking up his success (and lots of alcoholic beverages) and will finish outside of the top 40. He last played here four years ago and was T65, and I can see a similar result this week for the Englishman.
+11000 and higher
Carlos Ortiz (+15000) – Ortiz has really taken off since his win at the Houston Open in November – since then he has four top 15’s in seven starts, and outside of one missed cut, he has finished no worse than T37 since mid-October of last year. He’s coming off a T15 at the WGC event, but it could have been so much better had he not shot a 73 and a 72 in rounds 1 and 2, respectively. He’s very strong off the tee, around the green, and on the green, and as long as his approach is average this week then he should have a top 20 finish.
Cameron Tringale (+12500) – Tringale has eight top 31’s this season in twelve starts and has two top 7’s in his last seven starts. He was also T16 five years ago and T35 four years ago at this venue. I think you could put some money on Cameron for a top 20 or a top 30 this week and feel quite confident that you will cash in, especially if you bank on the top 30.
Avoid: Phil Mickelson (+35000) – He might look cool with his sunglasses on while playing now, but his game is anything but as his top finish so far this season is a T44 which came back in September at the Safeway Open. He does have two wins though, but they came on the Champions Tour. He has four missed cuts at The PLAYERS since 2015 and his best finish was a T41. He did win here in 2007 but that was 14 years ago and his game has fallen off a cliff since then, and understandably so. Feel free to bet Phil on the Champions Tour, but stay far away from PGA Tour wagers on him.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
