Golf Betting Tips
The PGA Tour remains in Texas for another week for the Valero Texas Open – an event that has been going on since 1922 and is the oldest one in the world that has always been played in the same city – San Antonio. This event has been played annually at TPC San Antonio, Oaks Course, since 2010, excluding last year as it was canceled due to the pandemic. The field is firm at 144 players this week, and as per usual, the top 65 golfers plus ties move on to play the weekend rounds. It was nice to see the top-ranked golfer in the world, Dustin Johnson, in the field this year, but he has since withdrawn in preparation of his Master’s Tournament title defense next week.
There’s $7.7M to be won this week, the winner gets almost $1.4M, and also adds 500 FedEx Cup points to their seasonal total. TPC San Antonio, Oaks Course, is 7,435 yards in length, is a par 72, and the greens are Bermuda overseeded with poa and bentgrass. The winning score at this tournament over the last ten editions averages -12.5, so expect to see a score around that number this year depending on what the players face in terms of weather challenges and course makeup. Corey Conners won this event two years ago and is back after two years to defend his title – he scored a -20 which was the lowest total at this event in 16 years and lowest ever on this course. Make wagers on golfers this week who are strong around the greens as there are lots of big bunkers to contend with, are accurate off the tee, can drop lots of birdies, and are good putters on Bermuda.
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Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Jordan Spieth (+1200) – I think if you’re betting on an outright winner this week, all signs point to Spieth. He has a T3, two T4th’s, and a T9 in his last six starts, he was runner-up here in 2015 and T10 in 2014. I think most golf analysts and fantasy users are thinking that he’s back, but winning will convince everyone that he in fact is. He lost over 4 strokes putting last week at the match play event, and could have absolutely won if his flat stick was working. His putting was looking great before The PLAYERS Championship, and if it returns this week, then I can see him winning by a few strokes as he’s totally killing it in all other stat categories. I think you could bet him to win, to finish top 5, and to finish top 10, that’s how confident I am in Jordan at the moment.
Scottie Scheffler (+1400) – Scheffler ran out of gas last week and it cost him winning his first PGA Tour event since it’s not like Horschel played incredible golf in the final round to fully earn the victory. That’s my only concern with Scottie this week – does he have enough left in the tank to compete at a high level for all four rounds?! Keep an eye on him as he could withdraw before round one. He would absolutely love to win this event in his home state though – has a runner-up, a T5, a T7, and a T20 in his last five events and finished T20 two years ago when his game wasn’t nearly what it is now. I wouldn’t bet him outright but a top 5 and/or top 10 wager seems quite reasonable to me.
Avoid: Hideki Matsuyama (+2500) – Something just isn’t right with Matsuyama these days, but I think he will find his groove at some point again down the road. He has two missed cuts in his last four stroke-play events and has finished no better than T15 in his last nine events including the match-play event. His approach play, ball striking, and tee-to-green have all been pretty good lately, but the other stat categories are lacking for him now, and it’s costing him good finishes. He also has never played this event before, so lack of familiarity on this track is a minus working against him, as well.
+2600 to +5000
Brendan Steele (+4100) – Steele is coming off of his best start of the season with a T3 at The Honda Classic and has racked up four top 21’s in his last eight starts. He won this event ten years ago and has three other top 13’s since then too. I think you could easily do a top 20 or a top 30 for Steele depending on how much risk and reward you want to take on, even a top 10 wouldn’t be too crazy.
Charley Hoffman (+3300) – Hoffman won here five years ago and has absolutely destroyed this tournament since 2010 with two runner-ups, a T3, two 11th’s, two 13th’s, and has made the cut every year at the very least. He’s the all-time earnings here for good reason and he will build on that lead this year, I do believe. He has also been on a pretty good run lately with three top 17’s in his last five events and is gaining strokes in most of the major stat categories. I think you could blindly bet Hoffman for a top 20 this week or a top 10 could potentially work, as well.
Avoid: Cameron Davis (+4100) – I’m bullish on Davis long-term, but he hasn’t been overly great over his last four starts with no top 30’s to speak of, and he has missed the cut in two of his last three outings. He’s having problems around and on the greens now, but once he figures out his short game, then he should start earning more top 20’s again, as the rest of his game is quite solid really.
+5100 to +10000
Matt Kuchar (+5500) – I couldn’t believe what I was seeing out of Kuchar last week at the match-play event, it’s almost like he came out of a time capsule from years ago as he looked like vintage Kuch for the most part to finish 3rd. I still think he’s risky this week as we don’t know which Kuch will show up, but he has a fairly strong history at this venue with five top 22’s since 2012, including a T7 two years ago, and his worst finish is a T51 during that stretch. I think you could do a top 20 wager on Kuch this week and do fine, or you might just want to fade him this week and see if he can keep his strong play going or not. He gained over 9 strokes putting last week, so his finish a week ago could be all smoke and mirrors as his other stats weren’t that great aside from his short game.
Harold Varner III (+6600) – Varner has two top 21’s over his last four starts, and has two top 23’s over his last four starts at this tournament including a T9 five years ago. If his putter is on this week then he should have a top 20 finish, if it’s not then he could have a T60 and that wouldn’t do much good for you in the betting market. I think a top 30 wager on HV3 this week would be acceptable, but I wouldn’t go much higher than that.
Avoid: Sebastian Munoz (+5500) – I used to be so big on Munoz, but that was last Fall when he was eating up the top 20’s and top 30’s. His best finish over his last eight starts is a T17, and that was at the Tournament of Champions in a very small field, so he was just a bit above average that week in actuality. He also missed the cut here two years ago, so nothing really points to a top 20 or 30 for him this week. Maybe he will be better later this year like he was last year, I suppose we will find out in a few months.
+11000 and higher
Roger Sloan (+12500) – Sloan is on a decent little run right now with three straight top 25’s thanks to strong iron play, and he has been strong tee-to-green, as well. I wouldn’t feel super-confident about betting him to finish top 30 this week to keep his streak going for his fourth straight event, but he’s one of the better value plays this week in my opinion, as the field really thins out after the mid-tier players.
Kevin Chappell (+13000) – Chappell won this event four years ago, was T4 five years ago, was runner up in 2011, and came in T30 in his most recent start here in 2018. He’s also coming off of his best start of the season at The Honda Classic where he finished T13, so I think you could place a top 30 bet on Kevin this week and likely come out ahead financially.
Avoid: D.A. Points (+150000) – No points for Points this season as he has missed 14 cuts in 15 events, and a good number of those tournaments were on the Korn Ferry Tour, ouch! I hope he has a job on the side, as he’s sure not making any money playing golf anymore.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
