PGA DFS Picks
Take the intel you need from this article to elevate your fantasy golf picks for the Valero Texas Open, and check out our PGA Optimizer to make more informed player selections for your DFS lineups. Best of luck this week!
The Valero Texas Open
Recap from last week: Matchplay tournaments are extremely unpredictable and last week was no different at the WGC – Dell Technologies Match Play event with Billy Horschel beating out Scottie Scheffler in the final match to win on the PGA Tour for the first time since 2018 to claim his sixth win overall – congrats to him on a most impressive week. Matt Kuchar finished third place after beating Victor Perez in their match – nice to see Kuch do well again after his mediocre season to date. It was nice for a week to have a different format for a tournament, but I think everyone is happy to go back to normal stroke-play again after many DFS lineups were ruined after round-robin play wrapped up on Friday.
Preview for the Valero Texas Open: The PGA Tour moves from Austin, Texas, to San Antonio, Texas, for a tournament that’s the sixth oldest in the world and third oldest on the PGA Tour but the oldest in the same city. This week’s winner will get an invite to The Masters Tournament next week, so there’s a lot on the line for Rickie Fowler and others who don’t yet quality, to punch their ticket to the most prestigious and well-known golf tournament on the planet. The Texas Open has been going since 1922, with local company Valero getting behind this event in 2002. We should see lots of good scores this week and saw a very strong score here two years ago when Canada’s Corey Conners won with a -20 – the lowest the tournament has seen since Tommy Armour III had a -26 back in 2003. This tournament was wiped out in 2020 due to the pandemic, so it’s great to get it back after a year off. The past five winners of this event include Corey Conners in 2019, Andrew Landry in 2018, Kevin Chappell in 2017, Charley Hoffman in 2016, and Jimmy Walker in 2015.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this year’s event is set at $7.7M, the winner receives $1.386M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: The Valero Texas Open has been played at TPC San Antonio, Oaks Course, since 2010 – the track is 7,435 yards in length, is a par 72, and the greens are again Bermuda but also overseeded with poa annua and bentgrass. The winning score over the past decade at this tournament ranges from -8 to -20, so scoring is a bit all over the place depending on weather conditions and course setup. The tournament record at this event is -27 by Mike Souchak in 1955 when he won by a whopping seven strokes. Some of the key stats to factor into your player profiles are strokes gained: approach, strokes gained: par 5s, scrambling gained, opportunities gained, and proximity from 175+ yards.
The field: The field consists of 144 golfers, and as per usual, the top 65 players plus ties will get to play rounds 3 and 4 on the weekend. The field is a bit better than normal, perhaps because next week is The Masters Tournament and players want to tune up their game in a competitive setting – this has been the case in the past as well, but not every year. The world’s number one ranked player, Dustin Johnson, has understandably withdrawn with his title defense of The Masters just a week away, Texas-native, Jordan Spieth, will look to keep his hot play going, Tony Finau will be teeing it up, Corey Conners finally gets his opportunity to defend his title, and there is other decent talent in the field, as well. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a B-.
Lineup construction strategy this week: We are back into a cut event this week and will have to keep that in mind when building lineups. I expect to adopt a hybrid strategy this week for my core lineups to go between a stars and scrubs and a balanced approach – it’s nice because lineups still have a good amount of win equity at the top while featuring players that are cut-makers with decent upside potential to round them out. Look for value where you can find it, and it’s always a good idea to leave at least $300 on the table with hopes of having unique lineups to potentially win GPPs outright.
All the best in your quest to win some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performance at this event over the last 5 years, and add in some helpful pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Tony Finau (Salary: DraftKings – $11.0K) – Finau gets this spot over Matsuyama for obvious reasons – originally Dustin Johnson occupied this digital real estate until he withdrew. I give Finau tons of credit as he has had a spectacular season and has done everything except for win a tournament. Half of his 12 starts have gone for top 8’s with three consecutive runner-ups between the PGA and European Tour, and he did have a T3 here four years ago. Plus, he should be hungry to bounce back after missing the cut at The PLAYERS Championship and gearing up for The Masters next week. Valero Texas Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T61 and 2017 – T3.
Jordan Spieth (Salary: DraftKings – $10.7K) – Spieth is back in business again after going through dozens of bad finishes at tournaments, but things are clicking now as he has four top 9’s in his last six starts including match play. He was runner-up here six years ago and had a good finish two years ago as well – everything is lining up for another PGA Tour win soon and it could come this week or next at The Masters where he has won multiple times. Valero Texas Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T30.
Scottie Scheffler (Salary: DraftKings – $10.4K) – Scheffler came up flat last week in the final match against Billy Horschel, but he still captured a runner-up finish at the WGC event and has loads of momentum on his side for this week in his home state of Texas. He has three top 7’s in his last five starts, had a good debut at this event two years ago, and is now much more polished throughout his bag some two years later. Valero Texas Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T20.
The $9K Range
Corey Conners (Salary: DraftKings – $9.5K) – Conners was quite dominant two years ago on this track to go low for a -20, and strides into this week with two straight top 7’s (outside of match play) at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The PLAYERS Championship – both elite events, especially the latter. He has seven top 17’s over his last ten stroke-play events, and five of those were top 10’s. He’s one of the best players in every facet of the game outside of around the green and putting on the PGA Tour, but has gained at least 3.5 strokes putting over his last two stroke-play events, so watch out if the putter remains hot this week. Valero Texas Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Won and 2018 – T26.
Brendan Steele (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K) – Steele won this event ten years ago and has a very nice track record ever since as well. He has been playing some very sound and consistent golf over his last eight starts and is coming off his best start so far this season with a T3 at The Honda Classic. I know the price seems pretty high for him this week, but he’s worthy of it and should command your full respect. Valero Texas Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T42, 2018 – T30, 2017 – T62, and 2016 – T13.
Abraham Ancer (Salary: DraftKings – $9.7K) – Ancer is a solid player that you can depend on almost every week he plays – usually finishing in the teens or twenties and has a couple of top 5’s this season as well. He has been decent at this event over the years but nothing too impressive – I expect that to change this year with his game in excellent shape. Valero Texas Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T42, 2018 – T58, and 2016 – T42.
The $8K Range
Chris Kirk (Salary: DraftKings – $8.6K) – Captain Kirk has turned his golfing career around this season and just keeps piling up good finishes – six top 25’s in his last nine starts including his runner-up finish at the Sony Open. He’s gaining strokes in all of the major stat categories except for putting, which is ideal for the type of player you want because when the putting is there it usually means a high finish. He also holds a good record at this tournament as well, so that doesn’t hurt either. Valero Texas Open finishes over the last five years: 2018 – T8, 2017 – Cut, and 2016 – T13.
Zach Johnson (Salary: DraftKings – $8.5K) – Johnson won this tournament in 2008 and 2009, but never won on this course specifically. No matter, he has still done well at this venue as well and is perfect in 12 starts this season with three top 10’s. He’s coming off a T8 at The Honda Classic also, so he should be fully confident this week. Valero Texas Open finishes over the last five years: 2018 – T5, 2017 – Cut, and 2016 – T29.
Lanto Griffin (Salary: DraftKings – $8.7K) – Griffin didn’t do so well last week at the match play event, but I’m not really looking too closely at those results this week as I evaluate which golfers I want in my lineups. Prior to that, he had finished anywhere from T7 to T35 in five starts, and does have a little bit of course history to draw on this week as he was part of the field in 2018. Valero Texas Open finishes over the last five years: 2018 – T58.
The $7K Range
Harold Varner III (Salary: DraftKings – $7.9K) – Varner III is starting to get a bit more consistent from start to start and has now made four cuts in a row with two top 21’s in there. He doesn’t have any top 10’s this season in thirteen starts but has four finishes in the teens, and has a respectable track record at this event to boot. Valero Texas Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T23, 2018 – Cut, 2017 – T40, and 2016 – T9.
Jhonattan Vegas (Salary: DraftKings – $7.4K) – Vegas has now made six straight cuts between the PGA and European Tour, and three of those were top 30’s including his runner-up finish at the Puerto Rico Open. He has nicely gained strokes off-the-tee and tee-to-green this season, and the rest of his stats are half decent too. Valero Texas Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T30, 2018 – Cut, 2017 – T34, and 2016 – Cut.
Branden Grace (Salary: DraftKings – $7.8K) – Grace won three starts ago at the Puerto Rico Open and has four top 34’s in his last five events. Another element working for him this week is a solid record at this tournament, and I expect him to bounce back well from his missed cut at The PLAYERS Championship in his most recent start where he missed the cut. Valero Texas Open finishes over the last five years: 2017 – T10 and 2016 – T9.
The $6K Range
Roger Sloan (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K) – I’m not a huge fan of the $6K range this week but there are a few decent players to put some ownership stock in. Sloan has three straight top 25 finishes and has only missed the cut once in his last six events. He’s not a bad play for your stars and scrubs and hybrid lineups this week. Valero Texas Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Cut.
Kevin Chappell (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – It’s always nice to be able to get a former event winner in the $6K range, especially when they have been decent lately. Chappell won here in 2017, is coming off his best start of the season at The Honda Classic where he finished T13, and has only missed a single cut in his last four outings. Valero Texas Open finishes over the last five years: 2018 – T30, 2017 – Won, and 2016 – T4.
Nate Lashley (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – Lashley has played golf in six straight weekends in the starts he’s made and has three top 18’s including coming in T5 at Pebble Beach. His stats are a bit spotty, but he finds ways to grind out decent finishes, and I expect the same out of him this week too. Valero Texas Open finishes over the last five years: 2018 – Cut.
