What a Friday towards the end of March as we received a ton of notifications regarding draft pick trade after draft pick trade. The three main teams involved – the 49ers, Dolphins, and Eagles. Overall, the Dolphins made the best moves to set them up for success. Meanwhile, the 49ers seemingly showed their hand with their intent to take a quarterback at the No. 3 overall pick. We’ll touch on each of the trades and how they impact each franchise with fantasy football implications. Since the 49ers’ situation feels like the most intriguing with question marks surrounding Jimmy Garoppolo and the likelihood of them drafting a quarterback, we’ll dig a little deeper at that point.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins made a couple of trades on Friday that netted them the No. 6 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Let’s briefly look at the trades they made with the 49ers and Eagles, and then highlight the first-round pick for 2021.
Dolphins & 49ers Trade:
The Dolphins traded away the No. 3 overall pick to the 49ers for the No. 12 overall pick plus a first and third-round pick in 2022 with an additional first-round pick in 2023. Essentially the Dolphins traded back nine spots to acquire two future first-round picks (2022 and 2023) and a future third-round pick (2023).
Dolphins & Eagles Trade:
After making the massive trade with the 49ers, the Dolphins then traded away the No. 12 overall pick they acquired from the 49ers, a fourth-round pick in 2021 and a first-round pick in 2022 to the Eagles. In return, the Eagles gave up the No. 6 overall pick and a fifth-round pick in 2021. Both trades look promising for the Dolphins as they now hold the 6th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Good haul for the Dolphins.
In the offseason, the Dolphins signed Will Fuller to a one-year deal worth over $10.5 million and already have DeVante Parker locked up. That said, it doesn’t appear that they’ll look to draft someone like Ja’Marr Chase with the 6th overall pick. However, it’s hard to pass up a talented receiver in Chase who caught 84 of 111 targets for 1,780 receiving yards and 20 receiving touchdowns in 2019. In Alex Kurperski’s 2021 NFL Mock Draft 2.0, he projected the Dolphins to take Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith at No. 3 (before Friday’s trade) and Chase to the Eagles at No. 6, where the Dolphins sit now.
Or maybe they snag the Florida product in Kyle Pitts with Mike Gesicki on contract through 2021? Pitts boasts a 32.3% (92nd-percentile) College Dominator Rating, 17.9 (96th-percentile) yards per reception, and 18.9 (95th-percentile) Breakout Age. Whichever way the Dolphins go, they’ve set themselves up for success and 2021 may be Tua Tagovailoa‘s breakout season.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles acquired the 12th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft plus a fourth-round pick in 2021 and a first-round pick in 2022 from the Dolphins. We mentioned this above, but the Eagles sent their 6th overall pick and a fifth-round pick in 2021. Essentially, the Eagles traded back to land the 12th spot where the 49ers held before the 49ers traded that pick to the Dolphins.
In Kuperski’s NFL Mock Draft 2.0, he noted the Eagles need a WR, OL, DB, and DL. With Carson Wentz out of the picture, Jalen Hurts takes over as their quarterback. The Eagles could’ve landed a playmaker like Ja’Marr Chase or Kyle Pitts at 6th overall, but now who knows where they’re going with the 12th pick. Maybe DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle falls to 12 or maybe they go for a DB or lineman. Hurts projects as a QB1 with his cheat code rushing ability where he ranked 8th with 63 carries and 8th with 357 rushing yards amongst qualified quarterbacks. A quick note that the production primarily came in the final five games of the season.
San Francisco 49ers
Let’s dive into the most exciting, or not so exciting (as a Seahawks fan) with the 49ers trade acquisitions. The 49ers acquired the 3rd overall pick from the Dolphins and gave up the 12th pick, two 2022 picks (1st and 3rd round), and a first-round pick in 2023.
Will the 49ers draft a quarterback with the 3rd overall pick? It seems likely that they land Zach Wilson or Trey Lance. However, reports indicate the 49ers intend to keep Jimmy Garoppolo and he’ll supposedly head into the season as the starting quarterback. Even if that’s the case, it seems like the 49ers showed their hand with a plan to draft a quarterback.
The #49ers plan to keep Jimmy G, believing they have a playoff-ready roster and he’s the one for it. We’ll see if teams can change their mind. https://t.co/SL5Skr0euA
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 26, 2021
That said let’s assume Trevor Lawrence goes No. 1 to the Jacksonville Jaguars, which leaves the other top quarterbacks in Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, and Justin Fields as the second and third pick. In Kuperski’s mock, he has the Jets drafting BYU quarterback Zach Wilson. If the Jets take Wilson, it seems likely that the 49ers land Trey Lance or Justin Fields. Either way, the 49ers should land one of the top college quarterbacks. With that being the case, let’s analyze Jimmy Garoppolo and the other quarterback prospects.
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco 49ers
We know the story for Jimmy Garoppolo in 2020, he missed a ton of time with an ankle injury. In 2020, Garoppolo only played in six games and averaged 23.3 pass attempts and 182.7 passing yards per game with seven passing touchdowns (5% touchdown rate). In two games where he totaled 33 passing attempts in each game, Garoppolo finished with his two best games of the season with 19.3 (No. 17) and 23.5 (No. 8) fantasy points. Interestingly, the 49ers averaged 38.1 (No. 16) Team Pass Plays Per Game, meaning the other quarterbacks that filled in put up higher passing attempts than Garoppolo. That’s a jump up from 2019, where the 49ers averaged 32.1 (No. 29) Team Pass Plays Per game.
Part of the reason for the jump in pass attempts in 2020 likely involved the slight decline in their team defense from 2019. The 49ers’ defense allowed the second-fewest total yards, the fewest passing yards, and the 17th fewest rushing yards in 2019. However, in 2020, their defense allowed the 5th fewest total yards, 4th fewest passing yards, and 7th fewest rushing yards. Meanwhile, the 49ers ranked middle of the pack with 24.4 points allowed (No. 17) in 2020 and allowed 19.4 points (No. 8) in 2019. Even from a fantasy football perspective, the 49ers DST ranked 20th in 2020 and 3rd in 2019. Although these aren’t the perfect metrics to quantify team defense, generally we observe higher pass attempts with weaker defenses.
Let’s touch on a few notable productivity and efficiency metrics though it’s difficult to compare 2019 and 2020 for Garoppolo. In 2019, Garoppolo averaged 15.2 (No. 23) fantasy points per game, a 7.7 (No. 9) Adjusted Yards Per Attempt and +2.9 (No. 13) Production Premium. Then in 2020, Garoppolo averaged 6.7 Adjusted Yards Per Attempt and +0.4 Production Premium. Unfortunately, he didn’t rank amongst qualified quarterbacks due to missed time. Regardless, the efficiency dropped, but take that with a grain of salt in a limited 2020 sample. At this point, Garoppolo looks like a backend QB2 that’s relevant in Superflex leagues yet no better than a streamer in 1-QB leagues.
Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
In 2020, Zach Wilson exploded for 3,699 passing yards, an 11 Yards Per Attempt, 33 passing touchdowns, and three interceptions. Wilson always showed some rushing ability with a career-high 254 rushing yards in 2020 with ten rushing touchdowns. He boasts an 88.6 (93rd-percentile) College QB Rating, 11.0 (97th-percentile) Yards Per Attempt, and 19.1 (91st-percentile) Breakout Age. All solid metrics and we like the rushing ability at quarterback.
When watching college film, Zach Wilson made some quick throws in the pocket while also showing the ability to throw on the run. Even at his pro day, Wilson displayed his arm strength and throwing ability where he threw across his body rolling to his left side. Wilson didn’t run at his pro day since he tweaked his hamstring, but he showed consistent mobility in college. There’s no denying the arm strength and mobility, but we’ll see how he adjusts in the NFL.
Zach Wilson ‼️@BYUFootball | @zachkapono1 pic.twitter.com/yJBzgDdPQy
— NFL (@NFL) March 26, 2021
It seems like there’s a slim chance that the 49ers draft Zach Wilson, but Kyle Shanahan could scheme up that offense with weapons in George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk. The only game where Wilson struggled in 2020 involved their lone loss to Coastal Carolina that ranked No. 18 in the country at the time. In that game, Wilson completed 19 of 30 pass attempts with 240 passing yards, one passing touchdown, and one interception. On the season Coastal Carolina allowed 20.2 points per game, which ranked 19th out of 128 teams. Leave it to Shanahan to build game plans around Wilson’s strengths if they land him.
Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
The quarterback prospect out of North Dakota State – Trey Lance lit the college football world on fire in 2019. Sure, Lance played in the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS), which is like the Division I-A of college football. However, Lance finished 2019 with 2,786 passing yards, 9.7 Yards Per Attempt, 28 passing touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Yes, ZERO interceptions. Oh, and Lance also rushed for 1,100 yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. Over 3,800 yards of production and 42 total touchdowns, just ridiculous production. That’s near Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts type production with fewer passing yards than Jackson and Hurts. Granted the competition varies for FCS teams, but still elite college production by Lance. However, Lance is a bit bigger than Jackson and Hurts though Hurts holds a similar weight yet Lance stands 6-foot-4.
Trey Lance was dropping dimes throughout his @NDSUFootball Pro Day. @treylance09 | @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/su6FFrtEQu
— NFL (@NFL) March 12, 2021
In Trey Lance’s pro day, he showed tremendous arm strength on intermediate and deep passes. For fantasy purposes, we love the rushing ability as a cheat code at quarterback. Similar to notes from Zach Wilson, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan could scheme up something beautiful for a talented quarterback like Lance.
Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
In a rock-solid 2019 season, Justin Fields threw 3,273 passing yards with 41 passing touchdowns and three interceptions. Fields also added 484 rushing yards and ten rushing touchdowns in 2019. Keep in mind that Fields only played in eight games in 2020, which skewed the 2,100 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, and six interceptions. Meanwhile, Fields still produced on the ground with 383 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. Fields finished with an almost identical 9.2 YPA in 2019 and 9.3 YPA in 2020.
This 2021 quarterback class is full of dual-threat quarterbacks that we love in fantasy football. Granted that outside of Chris Olave, the Buckeyes lacked consistent pass catchers, and we’ll give Fields a pass with the COVID-19 impacted season. Wherever the 49ers go with their No. 3 overall draft pick, they have a solid chance of landing one of Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, or Justin Fields, all of which could have immediate impacts in 2021 redraft leagues.
Justin Fields: Only QB with top-10 passing AND rushing grades last season 👀
🔥92.2 passing grade (6th)
🔥84.3 rushing grade (2nd) pic.twitter.com/52F5Ttk6QN— PFF Draft (@PFF_College) March 26, 2021
