Golf Betting Tips
We are coming off a big high from the Ryder Cup last week, and now we turn our attention to a more normal event where it’s all stroke play again and it’s every golfer for himself. We have seen this event played on the PGA Tour since 1968 when it was named the Magnolia Classic, but it has been named the Sanderson Farms Championship since 2013. We have 144 players competing this week, with the top 65 plus ties having the honor of playing rounds 3 and 4 on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.
There’s $7M on the line to be won this week, the winner will take home $1.26M and also receives 500 FedEx Cup points. The Country Club of Jackson in Mississippi has played host to this tournament since 2014 and we will again see the players back on this track this year – it’s 7,460 yards in length, is a par 72, and the greens are Bermudagrass. The average winning score at this tournament over the past decade is -19.7, on this specific course the winning score has averaged -18.7, so expect the winning golfer to have a final score around that number again this week. The tournament record came three years ago when Cameron Champ shot a -21 to beat Corey Conners by four strokes, and win for his first time on the PGA Tour. Place bets on golfers this week who are solid with their putting, are excellent on approach, can hit a long ball since the course is rather lengthy, gain lots of strokes on the field overall, and have a good around the green game.
Increase your odds of winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions I have regarding the Fortinet Championship this week:
1. Will another first-timer win this week? Two of the three past winners here won for the first time on the PGA Tour – Cameron Champ and Sebastian Munoz are those players. The grizzled vet, Sergio Garcia, won here last year, but I’m thinking we will see another young player win again this year since there are many players in the field who have never had a sniff of a trophy before, and they will be hungry to nab a win before the stronger field events land on the schedule.
2. Who to bet? With no big stars in the field this week, I think we will see all types of players get bet on and lots of names with win equity spread across the field. I can see a good number of players being in contention this week with nobody walking away with it, and it seems a bit riskier than normal to make outright bets – you’re likely better off betting top 5, top 10, and beyond.
3. Bet on consistent performers at this tournament? There are a few players who have played this course quite well in past years, but may not be so hot at the moment. J.T. Poston, Kevin Streelman, Carlos Ortiz, and Zach Johnson have been good over the last 2+ years here, and we could see them rise to the occasion again this week, or not, hard to say.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20 or 30 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Corey Conners (+1600) – Conners came up just shy of winning here three years ago after being defeated by Sebastian Munoz in a playoff and he finished T17 here a year ago, so despite his putting not being so great, he still gets the job done on this course through excellent ball-striking. His worst finish over his last six starts is a T36, and he finished T8 at THE NORTHERN TRUST and T15 at The Open Championship during the stretch. He lost over 3 strokes with his short game in the first playoff event and still finished T8, so he doesn’t need to be overly good with his wedges and putter to pull down top 10 finishes. You can bet him to win, finish top 5, or top 10 depending on how aggressive you want to get with the talented Canadian.
Sam Burns (+1400) – He has posted four straight top 21’s including an 8th at the BMW Championship and a T2 at the most recent WGC event, he won the Valspar Championship ten starts ago and followed that up with a runner-up at the Byron Nelson – Burns is starting to show that he has the potential to become elite. He keeps gaining in the putting department, and can really stack up birdies in a hurry, so he’s an excellent scorer quite often. He was in the mix to win here three years ago, and very well could be in the thick of things again this week. Much like Conners, you can bet him to win, to finish top 5, or top 10, it’s up to you on how bullish you are on the talented young man.
Avoid: Sergio Garcia (+2000) – He won here last year thanks to closing his eyes and putting the lights out, but don’t expect that to happen again this week as he typically loses strokes to the field on the greens. He only has one top 10 in his last 12 starts and five of those were missed cuts, so I don’t smell a repeat coming for Garcia this week, and have no interest in betting him with his short numbers.
+2600 to +5000
Harold Varner III (+3500) – Varner has been just outside of the top 10 in five out of his last seven starts and finishing T11 to T16 in those efforts thanks to a strong approach and short game. He doesn’t have much experience at this tournament but I wouldn’t let that stop you from placing a bet on him this week since he has been playing very well on all types of tracks as of late. I would be reluctant to bet him outright, but I think a top 10 should be considered this week, and a top 20 seems like a fairly “safe” bet to me if you want to be conservative with your risk-taking.
Mito Pereira (+2800) – He’s knocking on the door to win his first PGA Tour tournament and he hasn’t played in too many of them yet either. He has four top 6’s in his last six tournaments played including a solo 3rd at the Fortinet Championship two weeks ago and he came in 4th at the Olympics with a few legit PGA Tour stars in the field in Japan. He plays a consistent and sound all-around game, and gained 11.32 strokes from tee to green just two weeks ago in the first tournament of the season. I think you can place an outright bet on him, a top 5, or a top 10 bet – the power is in your hands.
Avoid: Carlos Ortiz (+4000) – Ortiz hasn’t been doing too much since his T4 at the Phoenix Open in February, has missed several cut lines since then with other bad finishes mixed in including finishing T66 at the BMW Championship in a 70 player field while losing almost 10 strokes putting – yikes! He did have a T4 here two years ago and a T3 three years ago, but he missed the cut here last year and I’m thinking he will do something similar again this week or place something like T58 which won’t give you any kind of an ROI.
+5100 to +10000
Rory Sabbatini (+8000) – He missed four cuts in a row before placing second at the Olympics and losing only to Xander Schauffele – that must have got his confidence back as he had a T10 at the Wyndham Championship two weeks later and gained strokes across the board except for a small loss in his around the green play. He has two straight top 20’s at this tournament – he placed T12 here last year and T20 in 2018, I think that betting him that way would work well this week, or you could do a top 30 bet to be a bit safer and take the smaller payout.
C.T. Pan (+6500) – Pan has started to gain momentum, and all thanks to finishing 3rd at the Olympics – he and Sabbatini found their game again in Japan and carried it back with them to North America. He had a T29 at the Wyndham Championship shortly after returning from overseas, and started his season off well with a T6 at the Fortinet Championship on the back of gaining 6.51 strokes putting and 4.60 strokes on approach. He placed T12 here a year ago, and I think you could bet him in a similar fashion to Sabbatini with a top 20 or a top 30 wager.
Avoid: Chris Kirk (+6000) – I was all over Kirk for a good portion of last season as he was putting up superb finishes with regularity, but he has tailed off since early May with no top 10’s, five cuts in his last 11 starts, and he just can’t seem to put together a complete game like he was doing while on his heater when he was gaining strokes in almost all categories week after week. He had a T53 here last year – I think he’s heading for a similar fate again this week and you can’t turn a finish like that into cash.
+11000 and higher
J.T. Poston (+13000) – This tier is absolutely terrible from a betting perspective and I wouldn’t recommend you bet too much, if any at all on the players. Poston does stand out to me though, not because of his recent results as he has missed three straight cut lines, but he did finish runner-up at the Barbasol Championship five starts ago, and has been stellar at this tournament over the last two years with a T3 last year and a T11 two years ago. You could bet him to finish top 10, top 20, top 30, or top 40, but this only applies to the gamblers who really like past results more so than result play.
Sahith Theegala (+13000) – It was a bit challenging to nail down another player worthy of your money, but I think Theegala warrants a look for a top 30 or a top 40 bet as he has finished in the top 40 in three out of his last five starts including a T32 at the Memorial Tournament which always features a pretty respectable field.
Avoid: Adam Hadwin (+13000) – Hadwin used to be a reliable option to make cut lines and pop here and there, but lately, all he has been doing is popping on a plane on Friday evenings for the tournaments that he has competed in. In fact, he has missed six cuts in his last eight events and can’t seem to get anything going. I would let the Canadian sit on the sidelines for now, and let him figure stuff out before parting ways with your money.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
