Golf Betting Tips
Much like last week’s CJ CUP, we have a similar tournament on tap this week once again for the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP – two big differences though are that this week’s event is in Japan, and the field strength is down a bunch from last week’s strong collection of players. This will be just the third time that we have seen the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP on the PGA Tour, last year’s was played in California, and the first edition of this tournament was played on this same track in Japan. We have just 78 players in the field, and there is no cut line to be concerned with this week.
There’s $9.95M available to be won this week, the winner takes home a generous $1.791M and also stockpiles 500 FedEx Cup points. The Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club clocks in at only 7,041 yards, is a par 70, and the greens are bentgrass. The average winning score at this tournament over the past two years is -21 – Tiger Woods won in year one on this track with a score of -19, so expect something in the high teens or maybe a player or two will get to -20, or better. The tournament record came just last year when Patrick Cantlay won at the Sherwood Country Club with a -23, but that course is a bit easier than this week’s course, so don’t expect a new record to be set on Sunday. Place bets on golfers this week who can hit a long ball, have a soft touch around the greens, are superb off the tee, are solid tee to green, and who fare well with approach shots.
Increase your odds of winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions I have regarding the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP this week:
1. Do Japanese golfers get a boost this week? We are in Japan with several native players currently in the field, and I assume most or all of them have played on this course before. We know that Matsuyama has as he finished runner-up to Tiger two years ago. I’ll be digging in deep to learn more about these Japanese players, and you should as well since some of them will have long odds and could do quite well.
2. Can Xander Schauffele win again in Japan? He won the Olympic gold in Japan in the Summer and tends to play well in small field events, so things may be perfectly aligned for Schauffele to succeed in Japan once again. He wasn’t overly impressive last week in a similar format finishing T18 but did have an impressive -9 on Sunday in round 4, and now he’s a top dog this week and seems poised to contend.
3. Which long-shot Japanese player to bet? There are a few talented golfers from Japan in the field this week who have long odds including Ryosuke Kinoshita, Rikuya Hoshino, Takumi Kanaya, Shugo Imahira, and others – I sort of like all four of these players since they have all been doing well on Japan’s main tour – look into each one and decide which golfer is the right fit for your betting card this week.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20 or 30 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Collin Morikawa (+700) – His back ails him no more and it’s time to get back on the Morikawa express now – don’t be late on him. He’s coming off an impressive performance at THE CJ CUP where he finished one stroke behind winner Rory McIlroy, and we saw his first big approach number in the positive since July with a 4.88 on the week. He won twice last season – at The Open Championship and at the WGC – Workday Championship, he had a bunch of other top 10’s including a runner-up at the Memorial Tournament, and let’s not forget that he finished 4th at the Olympics in Japan, as well. I think you can bet him to win, to finish top 5, and top 10, and you will likely win on at least two or three of those wagers.
Hideki Matsuyama (+1200) – I had a challenging time deciding between Matsuyama and Schauffele, both are worthy of your money this week but I went with the Japanese sensation as he finished runner-up here two years ago to Tiger Woods, and I have to think he wants to do one better this week to win it all in front of the home crowd. He won the Masters in April, had a 4th at the Olympics, a T2 at the WGC – FedEx St.Jude Invitational, and this season hasn’t gone the way he’d like but he did have a T6 at the Fortinet Championship a month ago where he gained 6.56 in ball-striking. I think you can bet Matsuyama any which way this week including an outright wager, it just depends on how much risk and reward you’re willing to entertain.
Avoid: Joaquin Niemann (+2200) – Niemann has been cold on the greens over the last two months or so, and it has led to finishes that are less than ideal since his 10th at the Olympics and his T2 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in July. He has been good off the tee, average with his approach and around the green play, and you won’t see his name on the leaderboard until he gets these parts of his game back in good shape along with his ailing putter. He could finish top 30 this week, but that won’t do too much for you in the betting market.
+2600 to +5000
Jhonattan Vegas (+2800) – He hadn’t played in almost two months prior to last month’s T14 at THE CJ CUP, but he was still in fine form as he gained strokes across the board aside from losing a mere 0.38 on the greens. He has gained strokes ball-striking in fifteen straight tournaments – ones that deployed shot link tracking technology at least, and when he gains strokes on the greens, he typically finishes in the top 20. He has seven top 16’s over his last eleven starts including two T2’s, and seems to be well-positioned to finish top 10 or top 20 this week – bet him accordingly.
Takumi Kanaya (+5000) – He has been impressive on the Japan Golf Tour with five top 10’s over his last seven starts including three top 5’s, and he has had some exposure to the PGA Tour this year but didn’t make the cut line at The Open Championship, the Memorial Tournament, the PGA Championship, or the Sony Open, however, he did finish T41 in last year’s ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, and I expect much bigger things out of him this week with the event being held in Japan on his native soil. I think betting him to finish top 20 makes sense, or if you can find a top 30 wager out there, then you may want to go in that direction to be more conservative.
Avoid: Charley Hoffman (+3500) – Hoffman had been playing so well throughout this year, but things have gone sideways for him as of late with no top 20’s since his T3 at the Charles Schwab Challenge in May, and he’s coming off a T68 last week where he lost 5.27 on approach which is concerning as that is one of his main weapons. He actually lost strokes in all major stat categories last week except he was excellent off the tee where he gained 4.11. He could do fine this week and finish top 20 or top 30, but I’m willing to wait him out until he goes on another heater.
+5100 to +10000
Harry Higgs (+6500) – The confident young man was all smiles last week as he finished T9 at THE CJ CUP thanks to a strong approach and putting game. He has had five top 38’s over his last six starts including a T16 at THE NORTHERN TRUST and a T15 at the Wyndham Championship, and if his strong approach play stays solid then watch out as he’s excellent with his short game – now gaining strokes in the stat category in seven straight starts. I think the smart bet is a top 20 for Higgs this week, or you could even bank on another top 10 and go in hard on him – your call.
Henrik Norlander (+6500) – I like betting on strong approach players who can putt, and the talented Swede, Norlander, fits the bill as of late by consistently gaining in approach and his putter has been impressive with gains in five out of his last seven tournaments played. He has two top 5’s over his past five starts including a solo 4th earlier this month at the Sanderson Farms Championship where he gained 8.39 strokes in approach, and his T5 at the Barbasol Championship came via another big approach performance where he gained 7.61. I like him as a top 20 bet this week, and that’s where I would place my chips on Norlander.
Avoid: Ryan Palmer (+5500) – Palmer hasn’t done too much since finishing 7th at the Zurich Classic with Jon Rahm – he has no top 25’s over his last ten starts, has missed the cut in half of those tournaments, and just can’t seem to put together consistent rounds. He did finish T10 here two years ago, but don’t get sucked into that narrative as he was playing much better prior to that event. His career could be winding down a bit now, or it could rebound, but don’t be early on Palmer and wait to see what he does this week and beyond.
+11000 and higher
Ryosuke Kinoshita (+13000) – He has done decent on the PGA Tour this year with a T43 at the WGC – FedEx St.June Invitational in August, a 59th at The Open Championship in July, and earlier this year he had a T67 at the Sony Open. Those aren’t too impressive for finishes, but he is mostly a Japan Golf Tour player and has been playing great there with five top 9’s in his last six starts including a T3 at the Japan Open Golf Championship last week. He also won in back-to-back starts in June on this tour, and has promise to do well this week also. I think the play is a top 20 bet on Kinoshita this week, or you could be more aggressive if you smell a top 5 or a top 10 come Sunday.
Shugo Imahira (+20000) – We last saw Imahira in North America at the Masters where he finished T44, but on the Japan Golf Tour he won five starts ago at the Fujisankei Classic and he had another five more top 10’s in nine starts prior to that win. He likely won’t set the tournament on fire this week, but he does have win equity and could finish top 30 this week, so that’s how I would bet him if you can find a taker out there.
Avoid: Kyle Stanley (+15000) – He had a good stretch of play earlier this year where he was finishing top 20, top 30, top 40, and even had a T8 at the Charles Schwab Challenge in the Spring, but he has missed six straight cut lines and doesn’t seem to know what he’s doing anymore on the greens as he has lost strokes with the flat stick in eleven straight events played, and it’s likely twelve as he missed the cut at the Barracuda Championship where there’s no shot tracker there to examine his stats from that week. He has been good with his ball-striking, but until his short game is cleaned up, there’s no money to be made off of Stanley.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
