Golf Betting Tips
The PGA Tour has moved on from Florida after being there for the past four weeks to set up in Texas for the next two weeks starting with this week’s World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play. This WGC match play tournament has been played on the PGA Tour since 1999 on multiple courses and in two different countries, the U.S. and Australia. This Dell-backed event has been played in Austin, Texas, since 2016, and this year marks its fifth edition as last years was canceled due to the pandemic. The field is 64 players and the top 16 players from each of the 16 foursomes will move onto Saturday, and the top 4 will compete on Sunday to see who finishes 1st to 4th.
There’s $10.25M on the line to be won this week, the winner gets a sweet injection of $1.82M into his bank account, and also gets 550 FedEx Cup points. Austin Country Club is a short but challenging old-school track that’s just 7,108 yards in length, is a par 71, and the greens are Bermuda. Kevin Kisner is the defending champion at this event – he beat out Matt Kuchar in 2019 to earn his victory. You will want to bet on the golfers you think will first win their group of four, then will need to narrow the bracket down from the 16 to 8 to 4 to 2 and finally decide who you think will take it all on Sunday evening in the last match of the event. Look at your projections for the elite 8 golfers and final 4 golfers, and get as many of those golfers into your lineups as possible. This is one of the more difficult tournaments to predict, for example, Kevin Kisner was the 48th ranked player two years ago and ultimately won, so you might want to consider wagering less money than normal. Invest in golfers who are strong with their approach shots, who are solid off the tee, who are good around the green as these greens are relatively small, who make birdies with regularity, and who can make putts on Bermuda.
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Groupings are below
- Group 1 – Dustin Johnson, Kevin Na, Adam Long, and Robert MacIntyre.
- Group 2 – Justin Thomas, Louis Oosthuizen, Matt Kuchar, and Kevin Kisner.
- Group 3 – Jon Rahm, Shane Lowry, Ryan Palmer, and Sebastian Munoz.
- Group 4 – Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Billy Horschel, and J.T. Poston.
- Group 5 – Bryson DeChambeau, Tommy Fleetwood, Si Woo Kim, and Antoine Rozner.
- Group 6 – Xander Schauffele, Jason Day, Scottie Scheffler, and Andy Sullivan.
- Group 7 – Patrick Reed, Joaquin Niemann, Bubba Watson, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.
- Group 8 – Tyrrell Hatton, Lee Westwood, Sergio Garcia, and Matt Wallace.
- Group 9 – Webb Simpson, Paul Casey, Talor Gooch, and Mackenzie Hughes.
- Group 10 – Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Carlos Ortiz, and Brian Harman.
- Group 11 – Rory McIlroy, Cameron Smith, Ian Poulter, and Lanto Griffin.
- Group 12 – Tony Finau, Jason Kokrak, Will Zalatoris, and Dylan Frittelli.
- Group 13 – Viktor Hovland, Abraham Ancer, Kevin Streelman, and Bernd Wiesberger.
- Group 14 – Daniel Berger, Harris English, Brendon Todd, and Erik van Rooyen.
- Group 15 – Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jordan Spieth, Matthew Wolff, and Corey Conners.
- Group 16 – Sungjae Im, Russell Henley, Marc Leishman, and Viktor Perez.
The groups have been announced for @DellMatchPlay!
Time to fill out those brackets. ✍ pic.twitter.com/cYHXt3hOpY
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 22, 2021
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some non-outright bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
Disclaimer: I think you are best off betting on individual matches this week, but feel free to place some wagers on golfers you feel like will have strong overall finishes too. Just keep in mind that there are usually lots of upsets in match play events.
+2500 and lower
Jon Rahm (+1400) – Rahm has all of the tools to win a golf tournament and he’s due to soon win one this season. He came close to winning this event four years ago but came up just short to lose to Dustin Johnson and finished runner-up. He’s a top 10 machine with six on the season in ten starts, and while he hasn’t made it through the round-robin here since his runner-up, I think his path to go deep this year is relatively easy compared to other elite golfers. Round-robin opponents: Shane Lowry, Ryan Palmer, and Sebastian Munoz.
Bryson DeChambeau (+1400) – DeChambeau is the longest hitter on the PGA Tour by far, and I think that gives him a really nice advantage in match play as his ball will always be further than any of his opponents, so he will get to see what they do with their second shots on par 4s and 5s and then decide how he wants to play his shot. I think that he’s the man to beat this week as he’s full of confidence, he won two starts ago at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and was 3rd at The PLAYERS Championship in his most recent start. He didn’t win his group in 2019 but I believe that he most certainly will this time around, and I think he will either win this week or be runner-up. Round-robin opponents: Tommy Fleetwood, Si Woo Kim, and Antoine Rozner.
Avoid: Dustin Johnson (+1400) – Johnson is floundering a little bit right now but I still think he wins his group play as his competition isn’t all that impressive at all. The problem is that I think he will lose his match once he reaches the sweet sixteen or the elite eight at best, and that’s a problem from a betting perspective. He did win this event four years ago, but he only had a 40th and a 59th over his last two starts here. Of course, he could win it all again this year, but I think his journey will end on Saturday, one way or another. Round-robin opponents: Kevin Na, Adam Long, and Robert MacIntyre.
+2600 to +5000
Paul Casey (+2600) – Casey just keeps up piling top 10’s with three straight, five in his last six starts, and his worst finish during that stretch was a T12 – a week after winning the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. He has got out of the round-robin two of the last three editions of this tournament, and he was 17th three years ago, so he almost won his group that year too. I think you can bet Casey to finish top 10 to be safe this week, or you can get more aggressive if you wish. Round-robin competition: Webb Simpson, Talor Gooch, and Mackenzie Hughes.
Louis Oosthuizen (+4500) – Oosthuizen is a match play god as he has a runner-up, two 5ths, a 9th, and a 17th over the last six years – he just knows how to win in this format. He also has two top 11’s over his last three starts, was T3 at the U.S. Open, and had a T23 at the Masters last year, as well. I wouldn’t bet him to win this week but you can certainly bet him for a top 5 and/or a top 10 and will likely do well. He’s in a very tough group this week but I like him to take it – you may want to fade this group though from a betting perspective and I would certainly understand that decision. If he gets out of his group though then he really could get to the final match on Sunday afternoon. Round-robin opponents: Justin Thomas, Matt Kuchar, and Kevin Kisner.
Avoid: Hideki Matsuyama (+5000) – Matsuyama is having a sub-par season by his standards with three missed cuts in 14 starts and just one top 10 which came back in early November at the Houston Open. He also hasn’t won his group in the four years at this event, and I see that streak continuing this week at the hands of Patrick Cantlay. Round-robin opponents: Patrick Cantlay, Carlos Ortiz, and Brian Harman.
+5100 to +10000
Jason Kokrak (+7000) – Kokrak won The CJ Cup in an elite field back in October and is currently on his best stretch of the season with three straight top 9’s at events featuring strong fields including The PLAYERS Championship, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and the WGC – Workday Championship. We have yet to see how he performs in match-play scenarios, but I love his price and think he gets into the top 16, at the very least. You may just want to bet him in individual matches if you’re concerned about his likely opponent of DeChambeau in the sweet sixteen. Round-robin opponents: Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris, and Dylan Frittelli.
Kevin Kisner (+7000) – Kisner has been the top player at this tournament over the last two installments as he won in 2019 and finished runner-up to Bubba Watson in 2018. He’s in a tough group this year, perhaps the toughest one there is, so you may only want to bet him against Matt Kuchar, but you could also put down a small bet for him to repeat as I can see the winner of this group potentially going all the way to the final match. Round-robin opponents: Justin Thomas, Matt Kuchar, and Louis Oosthuizen.
Avoid: Billy Horschel (+7000) – Horschel has cooled a bunch after his runner-up finish at the WGC – Workday Championship with a missed cut and a T58 at The PLAYERS Championship. He hasn’t won his group in match play before either, so he certainly doesn’t look very appealing this week to do much damage – he will finish 3rd or 4th in it I do believe. Round-robin opponents: Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, and J.T. Poston.
+11000 and higher
Lanto Griffin (+12500) – It’s hard to pick players way down the board this week, even despite them doing quite well over the years in this format. These lower golfers will pull off some upsets, it’s just hard to say which ones. I do like Griffin as he has finished no worse than T35 over his last five starts, and I can see him winning one or two of his matches this week, so there’s potential for him to move onto the sweet sixteen. I would feel good about betting him to beat Ian Poulter, he should be competitive against Cameron Smith, and he could even surprise against Rory McIlroy.
Brendon Todd (+12500) – Todd is further down the betting board this week but I do like his group for the most part with Berger’s ribs ailing, Harris English keeps playing bad golf, and Erik van Rooyen hasn’t really done too much on the PGA or European Tour this season. I think you could easily come out ahead betting him to beat English and van Rooyen and we will have to see how Berger is looking after his opening match against van Rooyen on Wednesday.
Avoid: Matt Kuchar (+15000) – Kuchar has done very well in match-play over the years as he was runner-up here in 2019 and also has two 9ths since 2016, but his golf game is fading in a hurry with five missed cuts in eleven starts this season – his best finish was a T34 back in early October at the Shriners. I don’t see Kuchar doing very well at all in his strong group with three straight losses all by inevitable, and this will likely be his last match-play competition of his career. Round-robin opponents: Justin Thomas, Louis Oosthuizen, and Kevin Kisner.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
