Gus Edwards Fantasy Impact 2024
If you want to win a fantasy football championship, you must be able to find league-winning players in the later rounds. Drafting in the early rounds is easy, with the NFL being as talented as ever. It is easy to pick the big names in the first few rounds. But it is the mid-to-late rounds that make or break a draft. That is where you can find Los Angeles Chargers running back Gus Edwards. He is one of the most overlooked players in fantasy drafts.
Edwards agreed to a one-year deal with the Chargers this offseason after spending the first five years of his career in Baltimore. His Baltimore connection will significantly influence his success with the Chargers in 2024. That is due to the Chargers’ new coaching staff; Jim Harbaugh took over as head coach and hired former Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Roman and Edwards have chemistry, which should lead to a heavy workload for the veteran rusher.
Let us deeply dive into why Edwards is in a perfect spot for a tremendous fantasy season. First and foremost, he does not have much competition for carries. The Chargers’ current running back depth chart consists of Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, Kimani Vidal, and Isaiah Spiller. Edwards has the longest track record of success, which is essential for a new coaching staff. They want to give the ball to someone they trust.
Secondly, Roman is known for running the ball as an offensive play-caller. He has spent ten years as an offensive coordinator in the NFL, and each year, his teams have been top-10 in rush attempts. There is no reason to believe that will change in 2024, mainly because Harbaugh loves running the ball. Last season, Harbaugh’s Michigan Wolverines averaged 37.3 rush attempts per game. Likewise, in his four seasons as the head coach of the San Francisco 49ers, they finished top-10 in rush attempts each year. Even with Justin Herbert as the quarterback, the Chargers will run the ball plenty.
All fantasy managers hope their players have many opportunities to score touchdowns. That should be another reason why Edwards will be valuable in fantasy. Last season with the Ravens, Edwards scored 13 touchdowns. He received 82.1% of the running back carries inside the five-yard line last season for the Ravens. Those carries resulted in 12 of his 13 touchdowns. You can bet Roman sees value in Edwards around the goal line and will continue to use him as such with the Chargers. Lamar Jackson took away some of the goal-line work that Edwards could have received. So, not having a rushing QB in LA should give Edwards more opportunities.
What some people may worry about with Edwards is his age; he will be 29 for the duration of the 2024 season, and we have seen many running backs’ production fall off a cliff when they reach their late 20s. But that should not be the case with Edwards. One reason is that Edwards does not have the workload of other players his age. Across five seasons, he has 699 total carries. That is good for 139.8 per season. To put that into perspective, Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott (also 29) had 868 carries in the first three years of his career. While many agree Elliott has lost a step, his overwhelming workload is to blame.
With running backs, their number of career touches indicates how much juice they have left. The most carries Edwards has seen in a season is 198, which came last year. Despite his age, Edwards’ legs should still be fresh, and he could be in for a new career-high in carries this season. It is worth mentioning that Edwards will not be the best for PPR leagues. He is not a pass-catcher, and the Chargers are not expected to use him in that role. So, his total carries, especially around the goal line, will be vital to his value.
Lastly, worrying about the Chargers’ offensive line and run-blocking is fair. But they have made some key moves this offseason to improve that part of their team. They bring back left tackle Rashawn Slater, one of the best in football. Also, selecting Joe Alt fifth overall in the NFL Draft gives them a budding star at right tackle. The interior of their offensive line also saw an improvement with the signing of Center Bradley Bozeman. While he is not a difference-maker on the offensive line, he is a solid run-blocker. According to PFF, Bozeman has a 71.6 cumulative run-blocking grade since 2021. That is 11th best amongst centers during that span.
Also, it is worth mentioning that Bozeman played under Roman from 2018-2021 in Baltimore. So, he should be familiar with what Roman likes to run and his run-blocking scheme. While the Chargers do not have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, they do have one good enough to support a top fantasy running back.
The current average draft position (ADP) for Edwards is RB 41. Simply put, that is far too low for a player with the opportunity Edwards is expected to receive. Edwards is one of the best sleeper running back options on the board, and you had better scoop him up before his ADP starts to rise after training camp. Whether you play in a redraft or best ball league, Edwards is a player to target.
